They Won’t Quit. The Energy Report 09/05/2025

In a defiant tone , India’s Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced Friday that the country will push forward, choosing energy that fits its own interests—no matter the global pressure according to The Economic Times of India. This comes after Reuters reports that the EU plans to end Russian oil imports by 2028, with legal proposals underway in Brussels. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said they would welcome President Trump’s support. The move aims to reduce reliance on Moscow, but opposition from Hungary and Slovakia could slow progress. To compensate, the EU intends to increase purchases of U.S. energy as part of a wider trade agreement. Rapid changes continue to shape global energy markets.

The Energy Information Administration did not inspire any buying, but we saw the demand over the four weeks moving averages. Looking at demand, products supplied over the last month averaged 21.3 million barrels a day, that’s a 2.5% boost from last year. Gasoline demand dipped slightly, down 0.8%, but distillate fuel demand is up 4.2%. Jet fuel continues to soar, rising 4.4% compared to last year’s numbers.

Refineries were running a little lighter last week—U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day, about 11,000 barrels less than the week before. That puts refineries at a strong 94.3% of capacity, but gasoline production is slipping, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. On the flip side, distillate fuel production nudged up 36,000 barrels, topping out at 5.3 million barrels per day.

Crude oil imports? They jumped by a hefty 508,000 barrels per day, landing at 6.7 million daily. Over the last month, imports are up 4.4% compared to last year—averaging 6.6 million barrels every single day. Gasoline imports checked in at 582,000 barrels per day, while distillate fuel imports averaged 96,000 barrels.

Commercial crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels, bringing the total to 420.7 million barrels—about 4% under the five-year average. Gasoline inventories dropped by 3.8 million barrels, putting us 2% below that five-year benchmark. Both finished gasoline and blending components fell last week as well.

Distillate fuels saw their inventories grow by 1.7 million barrels, though we’re still sitting 13% lower than the five-year norm. Propane and propylene? Up 3.2 million barrels, standing a nice 12% above average. Total commercial petroleum inventories climbed 7.1 million barrels—so the tank’s a little fuller this week!

The Economist is warning Mexico on becoming too dependent on US natural gas . They wrote that last year Mexico imported 2.34trn cubic feet of natural gas from the United States, up by nearly 40% from 2018. The increase is not just due to growing energy demand. Gas has become the backbone of Mexico’s energy system. It accounts for more than 60% of electricity generation, largely in combined-cycle plants. Natural gas is viewed as a “bridge” fuel as countries move away from coal and oil and towards clean energy. Mexico has been making use of its enviable access to the world’s cheapest supply of natural gas, produced just across the border in Texas. But that arrangement is politically fraught for President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Of course Mexico has run Pemex into the ground. Mexico’s government has been more focused on improving the drug trade than it has the energy trade and it’s a shame because some of the resources of Mexico are absolutely amazing. By blocking out foreign investment into their oil fields and their offshore capabilities, Mexico is not achieving the economic prominence that it should be.

Tale of two stories. One where we will see record demand for natural gas based upon power generation and increasing LNG exports but still some concerns about strong production. Yet as we head into winter and we saw yesterday’s inventory number in line with expectation, the market is sensing that we could be very close to a bottom. We do think this is a good time to put on those winter strategies because I don’t think they’re going to get much cheaper unless the weather turns out to be extremely mild and weather is going to be the final judge on the natural gas market. There are still have issues that we have to focus on.

The Fox Weather app reports that Invest 91L is projected to become a tropical depression in the Atlantic as the peak of hurricane season nears. According to the National Hurricane Center, Invest 91L has a medium probability of development within the next two days and a high probability over the coming week.Fox Weather reports that the National Hurricane Center has named a tropical disturbance off Africa as Invest 91L, expected to become Tropical Depression Seven by the weekend. “Invest” refers to areas monitored for potential development into a tropical depression or storm within seven days.

Make sure you download the Fox Weather app! Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network.

Call to open your futures trading account with me at 888-264-5665 or email me atpflynn@pricegroup.com.