Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M. Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The September International Trade Report showed that the US trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, a $19.2 Bil decline from Juine and the widest in 4 months. Compared to a year ago, the trade deficit was unchanged. July exports were up 0.3% from June, but at a 3-month high of $280.5 Bil, led by nonmonetary gold, computer accessories, civilian aircraft, trucks and buses. Imports rose 5.9% or $20 Bil to a 4-month high stronger imports for industrial supplies and materials, computers telecommunications equipment and other industrial machinery, while imports for automotive vehicles, parts and engines declined. The largest trade deficits were $16.6 Bil with Mexico, $16.1 Bil with Vietnam, %14.7 Bil with China, and $13.5 with Taiwan. The EU trade deficit was at $8.6 Bil, and the Indian deficit was at $5.5 Bil.
Yield Update
Breaks in corn & soy futures have found buying at amid uncertainty over USDA yield adjustments from September onward. Theres no doubt large parts of the eastern Midwest have been historically dry since Aug 1st – particularly southern Illinois, KY, and OH. Several Traders & Analysts expect NASS in next week’s September report to drop corn yield 1.5-2.0 BPA and soybean yield 0.5-0.8 BPA. But a repeat of 2024’s major revisions from August to January is unlikely. Drought/Abnormal dryness in the last two weeks has emerged in AR, MO, southern IL, KY, IN, and OH. Yet, the coverage of drought is much smaller than a year ago. Drought this week covers 9% US corn area and 16% of soy area, vs. 13% and 19% respectively, a year ago. Yield potential remains large across the US Plains, Northern Plains, and the Western Midwest where extra corn acres were planted.
Census US Corn Exports
Official Census US corn exports in July totaled 245 Mil Bu, slightly above expectations and the largest for the month since 2028.Using FGIS weekly, shipment data, ARC projects official US corn exports in August at 235 Mil Bu, vs. 203 Mil a year ago, and pegs final 24/25 US corn exports at 2,837 Mil Bu – 17 Mil above USDA ‘s forecast. USDA in it’s Sep WASDE would pull 24/25 US end stocks below 1,300 Mil Bu if not for weaker than expected ethanol grind in July & August. ARC expects USDA to trim its ethanol demand to be down 20-25 Mil Bu next week. This offsets larger exports and leaves meaningful changes in 24-25 carryover supplies to Jun/Aug feed/residual disappearance. The pace of US export demand has been robust into late summer, but the pace of new sales will be monitored closely moving forward. US corn is no longer the world’s cheapest origin, and South American corn exporters seek to build world corn demand. ARC research maintains that US 2025/26 corn export estimates are overstated by 200-350 Mil Bu. Which cast a pall on any post=harvest rally (unlike 2024/2025).
Dec CBOT corn for a second time found modest buying interest at its 50-day moving average ($4.14.5) but is forecast to fail at chart resistance at $4.22-$4.26. ARC’s work maintains that it’s difficult to be bullish of Dec corn above $4.22. There is no doubt NASS trims the US corn yield by more than 2 BPA, and any yield above 184 keeps total supplies in mis-autumn above 17.6 Bil Bu. Additionally, and most important in the median term, is that South American corn exporters are more actively probing for market share. Spot Brazilian fob basis in the last 10-days has dropped $30/Bu. Argentine premiums dropped $.10/Bu. New crop corn export sales have been massive through late August as the US was the world’s lowest origin – but this is no longer the case.. StoneX estimated the September US corn yield at 186. 9 BPA, vs. 188.1 in August which correlates with a USDA/NASS yield above 186.5 next Friday. NASS will find record Ear numbers in September. And FSA farm program data calls for the finding of additional 200-400,000 acres of US planted/harvested corn. It will be difficult for the NASS report to be bullish of corn due to 97 Mil planted acres. ARC sees corn as overvalued above $4.20 December with Midwest harvest to start in 2-3 weeks. A test of contract lows is forecast at harvest.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Sporadic Buying at 5—Day Moving Average; Yield Crunch Time Next Friday. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/05/2025
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M. Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The September International Trade Report showed that the US trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, a $19.2 Bil decline from Juine and the widest in 4 months. Compared to a year ago, the trade deficit was unchanged. July exports were up 0.3% from June, but at a 3-month high of $280.5 Bil, led by nonmonetary gold, computer accessories, civilian aircraft, trucks and buses. Imports rose 5.9% or $20 Bil to a 4-month high stronger imports for industrial supplies and materials, computers telecommunications equipment and other industrial machinery, while imports for automotive vehicles, parts and engines declined. The largest trade deficits were $16.6 Bil with Mexico, $16.1 Bil with Vietnam, %14.7 Bil with China, and $13.5 with Taiwan. The EU trade deficit was at $8.6 Bil, and the Indian deficit was at $5.5 Bil.
Yield Update
Breaks in corn & soy futures have found buying at amid uncertainty over USDA yield adjustments from September onward. Theres no doubt large parts of the eastern Midwest have been historically dry since Aug 1st – particularly southern Illinois, KY, and OH. Several Traders & Analysts expect NASS in next week’s September report to drop corn yield 1.5-2.0 BPA and soybean yield 0.5-0.8 BPA. But a repeat of 2024’s major revisions from August to January is unlikely. Drought/Abnormal dryness in the last two weeks has emerged in AR, MO, southern IL, KY, IN, and OH. Yet, the coverage of drought is much smaller than a year ago. Drought this week covers 9% US corn area and 16% of soy area, vs. 13% and 19% respectively, a year ago. Yield potential remains large across the US Plains, Northern Plains, and the Western Midwest where extra corn acres were planted.
Census US Corn Exports
Official Census US corn exports in July totaled 245 Mil Bu, slightly above expectations and the largest for the month since 2028.Using FGIS weekly, shipment data, ARC projects official US corn exports in August at 235 Mil Bu, vs. 203 Mil a year ago, and pegs final 24/25 US corn exports at 2,837 Mil Bu – 17 Mil above USDA ‘s forecast. USDA in it’s Sep WASDE would pull 24/25 US end stocks below 1,300 Mil Bu if not for weaker than expected ethanol grind in July & August. ARC expects USDA to trim its ethanol demand to be down 20-25 Mil Bu next week. This offsets larger exports and leaves meaningful changes in 24-25 carryover supplies to Jun/Aug feed/residual disappearance. The pace of US export demand has been robust into late summer, but the pace of new sales will be monitored closely moving forward. US corn is no longer the world’s cheapest origin, and South American corn exporters seek to build world corn demand. ARC research maintains that US 2025/26 corn export estimates are overstated by 200-350 Mil Bu. Which cast a pall on any post=harvest rally (unlike 2024/2025).
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stuck Between Moving Averages & ; Export Demand Key:
Dec CBOT corn for a second time found modest buying interest at its 50-day moving average ($4.14.5) but is forecast to fail at chart resistance at $4.22-$4.26. ARC’s work maintains that it’s difficult to be bullish of Dec corn above $4.22. There is no doubt NASS trims the US corn yield by more than 2 BPA, and any yield above 184 keeps total supplies in mis-autumn above 17.6 Bil Bu. Additionally, and most important in the median term, is that South American corn exporters are more actively probing for market share. Spot Brazilian fob basis in the last 10-days has dropped $30/Bu. Argentine premiums dropped $.10/Bu. New crop corn export sales have been massive through late August as the US was the world’s lowest origin – but this is no longer the case.. StoneX estimated the September US corn yield at 186. 9 BPA, vs. 188.1 in August which correlates with a USDA/NASS yield above 186.5 next Friday. NASS will find record Ear numbers in September. And FSA farm program data calls for the finding of additional 200-400,000 acres of US planted/harvested corn. It will be difficult for the NASS report to be bullish of corn due to 97 Mil planted acres. ARC sees corn as overvalued above $4.20 December with Midwest harvest to start in 2-3 weeks. A test of contract lows is forecast at harvest.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374