Softs Report 09/05/2025

DJ Food Prices Hold Broadly Steady in August, UN Says
By Giulia Petroni
World food prices were little changed last month, as higher vegetable oil and meat prices offset declines in dairy and cereal, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks a basket of staple foods, averaged 130.1 points in August, just above July’s revised level of 130 points and 6.9% higher than a year earlier. The gauge remains 18.8% below the March 2022 peak reached after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Vegetable-oil prices were up 1.4% from the previous month on stronger demand for palm oil and tightening supplies of sunflower and rapeseed oils in the Black Sea region and Europe. Soy oil prices instead fell on expectations of ample soybean supplies in the 2025-2026 season.
Meat prices rose 0.6% to a record high, led by strong demand for bovine meat in the U.S. and tight export supplies of ovine in Oceania, with producers directing shipments to more lucrative markets such as the U.S. or the U.K. Pig meat held steady amid balanced global demand and supply, while poultry fell on abundant exports from Brazil.
Cereal prices slipped 0.8%, as declines in wheat and sorghum prices outweighed increases in maize and barley. Dairy fell 1.3%, with butter, cheese and whole milk powder lower on weaker import demand from key Asian markets.
Meanwhile, sugar prices rose 0.2% after five consecutive months of declines, on concerns over Brazil’s production outlook and stronger global import demand. However, prospects for larger crops in India and Thailand capped further increases, the FAO said.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was little changed in narrow range trading. Crop condition reports were a little lower in quality. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.80, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 68.90, 69.50 and 69.90 December.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 5
For the week ended Aug 29, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 245.0 0.0 3657.1 4648.3 3123.9 217.1
pima cotton 1.6 0.0 99.7 115.6 64.8 0.0

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 236.00, 227.00, and 222.00 November, with resistance at 252.00, 254.00, and 260.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower yesterday as traders liquidated long positions and sold new positions. There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil holding back on offers to world destinations. The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market. A cold snap earlier this month will reduce the size of the next coffee crop in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro growing region by around 412,000 60-kg bags. Rains will be needed in September to improve the outlook for next year’s arabica crop in Brazil, which has been impacted by dry weather and cold snaps.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 323.53 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were delivered against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 853 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 364.00, 343.00, and 337.00 December, and resistance is at 399.00, 405.00 and 412.00 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 4300, 4100, and 3910 November, with resistance at 4800, 4980, and 5060 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower once again on reported speculative selling. The Brazil production could be less, in part due to a recent freeze event and in part to reports of less sucrose in the cane. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1590 March and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1760 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 465.00, 456.00, and 456.00 December, with resistance at 483.00, 488.00, and 492.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower as weather concerns in West Africa was important. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America, but Africa has turned dry and producers there are concerned about potential losses now. The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that there were 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 595 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7320, 7150, and 710 December, with resistance at 8050, 8140, and 8500
December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5150, 4930, and 4510 December, with resistance at 5350, 5500, and 5650 Septembe670

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