Grains Report 09/05/2025

DJ Food Prices Hold Broadly Steady in August, UN Says
By Giulia Petroni
World food prices were little changed last month, as higher vegetable oil and meat prices offset declines in dairy and cereal, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks a basket of staple foods, averaged 130.1 points in August, just above July’s revised level of 130 points and 6.9% higher than a year earlier. The gauge remains 18.8% below the March 2022 peak reached after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Vegetable-oil prices were up 1.4% from the previous month on stronger demand for palm oil and tightening supplies of sunflower and rapeseed oils in the Black Sea region and Europe. Soy oil prices instead fell on expectations of ample soybean supplies in the 2025-2026 season.
Meat prices rose 0.6% to a record high, led by strong demand for bovine meat in the U.S. and tight export supplies of ovine in Oceania, with producers directing shipments to more lucrative markets such as the U.S. or the U.K. Pig meat held steady amid balanced global demand and supply, while poultry fell on abundant exports from Brazil.
Cereal prices slipped 0.8%, as declines in wheat and sorghum prices outweighed increases in maize and barley. Dairy fell 1.3%, with butter, cheese and whole milk powder lower on weaker import demand from key Asian markets.
Meanwhile, sugar prices rose 0.2% after five consecutive months of declines, on concerns over Brazil’s production outlook and stronger global import demand. However, prospects for larger crops in India and Thailand capped further increases, the FAO said.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 5

For the week ended Aug 29, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 313.0 5.5 12417.8 10177.5 5925.5 14.9
hrw 134.3 2.5 5157.9 2478.1 2481.2 2.5
srw 21.2 3.0 1766.5 1721.8 674.4 12.4
hrs 53.4 0.0 3044.5 3270.8 1391.5 0.0
white 101.6 0.0 2256.6 2553.6 1301.9 0.0
durum 2.5 0.0 192.2 153.3 76.5 0.0
corn -280.9 2117.0 70193.7 55777.8 1864.3 20891.9
soybeans -23.8 818.5 50844.9 45369.2 1092.3 8046.1
soymeal -4.3 145.7 15640.3 13891.6 1814.8 2684.8
soyoil -0.1 1.8 1102.9 234.1 38.0 24.8
upland cotton 245.0 0.0 3657.1 4648.3 3123.9 217.1
pima cotton 1.6 0.0 99.7 115.6 64.8 0.0
sorghum -10.6 76.1 1785.1 5923.3 0.4 203.3
barley 2.0 0.0 48.9 20.1 30.4 0.0
rice 109.6 0.0 659.2 730.7 517.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 08, 2025 138 Sep 02, 2025
ROUGH RICE September Sep 08, 2025 13 Sep 02, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 08, 2025 8 Aug 29, 2025
SOYBEAN September Sep 08, 2025 125 Sep 04, 2025
WHEAT September Sep 08, 2025 3 Aug 27, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was little higher as the market found additional selling in response to word of lower prices being paid in Russia. The Spring Wheat harvest is active and the Winter Wheat harvest is done. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Russian Black Sea prices have been dropping as late yields have improved. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 517 and 511 December, with resistance at 535, 543, and 553 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 507, 501, and 495 December, with resistance at 523, 529, and 535 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice was a little higher as the harvest is active in Texas and southern Louisiana. Crop condition ratings were mostly good last week. Chart trends are mixed on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Harvest is active near the Gulf Coast and has started in Mississippi and Arkansas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1193, 1172, and 1160 November and resistance is at 1229, 1240, and 1263 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on ideas that supplies will be more than ample for the demand. Ethanol demand was down 6% from last month at 456 million bushels and there are concerns about feed demand moving forward as feeder cattle imports from Mexico have been banned due to reports of screw worm disease in the cattle. There are also ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average below normal this week and it should be mostly dry. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 410, 404, and 401 December, and resistance is at 424, 430, and 434 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 325, 319, and 313 December, and resistance is at 338, 344, and 351 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and continued to find some selling on ideas of strong yield potential despite the current cool and dry weather seen in the Midwest The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size Soybean Oil was lower on strong crush data released recently by USDA. A drop in condition ratings shown by USDA was given as a reason to buy. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News: USDA said that 204,650 tons of Soybeans were received for delivery. Unknown destinations bought 123,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1031, 1027, and 1020 November, and resistance is at 1055, 1063, and 1074 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 274.00, 270.00, and 266.00 October, and resistance is at 283.00, 288.00, and 290.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 5110, 5090, and 5040 October, with resistance at 5340, 5390, and 5440 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were closed for a holiday. Demand for export has been strong to start the month. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was lower with Soybean Oil and as exporters remain worried abouts access to the Chinese market. Trends are down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 602.00, 596.00, and 590.00 November, with resistance at 652.00, 661.00, and 669.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4410, 4340, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4530, 4590, and 4650 November.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 105,587 lots, or 4.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 4,070 4,070 4,042 4,042 4,056 4,056 0 88 103
Nov-25 3,975 3,991 3,963 3,974 3,966 3,975 9 78,388 196,633
Jan-26 3,969 3,989 3,964 3,977 3,966 3,974 8 21,965 106,359
Mar-26 3,968 3,990 3,964 3,978 3,968 3,975 7 2,540 29,394
May-26 4,017 4,033 4,011 4,022 4,012 4,020 8 1,163 6,402
Jul-26 4,009 4,038 4,009 4,024 4,016 4,023 7 1,443 5,535
Corn
Turnover: 809,597 lots, or 17.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 2,295 2,300 2,295 2,300 2,315 2,297 -18 2,000 18,157
Nov-25 2,212 2,229 2,210 2,224 2,200 2,219 19 560,161 915,637
Jan-26 2,195 2,210 2,194 2,204 2,187 2,200 13 176,607 414,829
Mar-26 2,207 2,218 2,207 2,211 2,200 2,210 10 28,704 146,583
May-26 2,255 2,268 2,252 2,266 2,249 2,260 11 23,616 76,052
Jul-26 2,266 2,278 2,264 2,274 2,261 2,271 10 18,509 20,660
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,083,685 lots, or 32.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 3,000 3,000 2,994 2,994 3,004 3,028 24 334 8,410
Nov-25 3,007 3,043 3,007 3,040 3,032 3,028 -4 67,997 530,804
Dec-25 3,054 3,083 3,051 3,079 3,075 3,067 -8 9,082 137,022
Jan-26 3,043 3,072 3,042 3,067 3,063 3,058 -5 767,878 1,996,647
Mar-26 2,984 3,001 2,981 2,996 3,002 2,992 -10 39,605 365,108
May-26 2,803 2,814 2,794 2,807 2,817 2,806 -11 181,602 964,821
Jul-26 2,795 2,797 2,779 2,791 2,803 2,791 -12 14,379 127,212
Aug-26 2,919 2,923 2,906 2,919 2,929 2,917 -12 2,808 25,457
Palm Oil
Turnover: 730,558 lots, or 69.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 9,358 9,408 9,300 9,408 9,352 9,354 2 3 1,225
Oct-25 9,354 9,490 9,338 9,490 9,358 9,420 62 8,264 7,016
Nov-25 9,348 9,504 9,332 9,496 9,340 9,428 88 2,536 10,554
Dec-25 9,352 9,536 9,346 9,510 9,354 9,462 108 678 1,331
Jan-26 9,382 9,554 9,358 9,526 9,376 9,456 80 687,731 475,615
Feb-26 9,368 9,476 9,342 9,476 9,354 9,414 60 43 1,204
Mar-26 9,310 9,458 9,286 9,432 9,298 9,380 82 100 591
Apr-26 9,248 9,386 9,232 9,366 9,224 9,324 100 34 78
May-26 9,158 9,302 9,144 9,294 9,156 9,228 72 31,107 74,145
Jun-26 9,058 9,182 9,058 9,180 9,066 9,148 82 28 85
Jul-26 8,960 9,072 8,960 9,072 8,968 9,032 64 20 151
Aug-26 8,930 8,958 8,924 8,958 8,930 8,944 14 14 44
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 381,286 lots, or 3.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 8,400 8,490 8,390 8,456 8,410 8,420 10 110 2,988
Nov-25 8,366 8,482 8,358 8,474 8,370 8,424 54 6,116 17,511
Dec-25 8,392 8,504 8,382 8,496 8,398 8,446 48 653 5,993
Jan-26 8,340 8,460 8,330 8,450 8,348 8,400 52 327,469 644,187
Mar-26 8,296 8,370 8,274 8,368 8,298 8,326 28 244 1,757
May-26 8,052 8,144 8,040 8,136 8,060 8,092 32 46,610 210,745
Jul-26 8,008 8,092 8,008 8,086 8,022 8,052 30 73 352
Aug-26 8,038 8,080 8,032 8,080 8,012 8,056 44 11 34
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322