AgMaster Report – 08/29/2025

SEPT CORN

The Pro Farmer Tour yielded markedly lower results than the August USDA report – with a yield of 182.7 (188.8) bpa & total production of 16.204 bb (16.742)! Granted, the PFT over the last 20 years – has traditionally come in lower than the USDA – but it still gave the mkt reason to question the USDA as disease & dry weather looks to have undercut the high yield estimates! As well, corn exports continue to be stellar – aided by a sharply lower US $ – resulting from Chairman Powell’s hints of lower rates in Sept! So this added to the rally underway since the USDA Report 9-12-26 – which appeared to put a low in the mkt & has extended over 20 cents off the report-day lows!

 

SEPT BEANS

The Pro Farmer Tour’s bean predictions were much more in line with the USGA with a yield of 53.0 (53.6) bpa & production of 4.246 (4.292) bb! Beans had already rallied 60 cents since the friendly USDA #’s issued on 8-12-25 & tacked on 20 cents more off the Pro Farmer #’s! Also recent rumors about Chinese buying our beans have surfaced – helping to support the mkt! China’s massive buying of Brazilian Beans has raised their price over the US making the US the cheapest beans around – helping to promote non-China buying!

 

SEPT WHT

Sept Wht got low enough to attract bargain-hunters & the funds have short-covered – as the above chart indicates! Much like its trading neighbors – corn & beans – wht appears to have dialed in a lot bad news – & at current levels, is attracting healthy export demand! And no one can argue that prices are plenty cheap already for corn, beans & wht!

 

OCT CAT

The “raging bull” otherwise known as Oct Cat is overdue for a correction – coming into Labor Day W/E at record levels, well over-bought & with “down seasonals” predicted for after the long holiday W/E! Futures have rallied $36 & feeders $64 since July 4^th But the cash remains strong & total cattle #’s are the lowest since the 1950’s! Amazingly, demand keeps showing up at these lofty, record levels! The trend continues to be your friend & the path of least resistance continues to be up!

 

OCT HOGS

The technicals speak volumes as Oct Hogs decisively broke out of a 2-month trading range to the upside – spurred on by strong cash & demand – & a huge economic advantage in the supermarket – compared to its high-flying neighbor Oct Cat! It’s about time! the mkt is poised to test is late June highs in early Sept!

 

The 8-12-25 August WASDE Report was quite bearish – not surprising – predicting a 16.742 bb Crop & a 188.8 bpa yield!  Now the mkt awaits several crop tours to see if they mesh with the USDA! Early yield reports were positive with some tip-back in Indiana but high ear counts in Iowa! The gold standard – The Pro Farmer Tour – concludes in Minnesota on Thursday with final #’s announced Fri am! The mkt has dialed in a pretty sizeable crop already but “big crops get bigger”! Exports have continued to be excellent & a falling US Dollar has helped support them! Watch carefully for “bullish divergence” when bearish news no longer can push prices lower – as an indication a seasonal low has been achieved!

 

SEPT BEANS

Unlike corn, the August USDA Report was bullish with an estimated bean crop at 4.292 bb – under the 4.371 estimate! All the US & Global stock estimates were well under the predictions – and the mkt responded accordingly – rallying 30 cents interday! The mkt has been pounded down under $10 – due to a lack of a US-China deal but non-China demand has shown up & stocks are not plentiful! Domestic demand has been healthy – the Aug lows should hold – whatever the final  production – & of course a grain deal with China – later on would provide a big boost to futures prices! Ten Dollars is plenty cheap for Fall beans! much like corn, the bean mkt anxiously awaits the Crop Tour results!

 

SEPT WHT

A key reversal up yesterday is encouraging amidst a plethora of bearish news including a Pro Farmer Tour reporting record yields, an increase in Russian production & rain in the S Plains! Sept Wht is certainly cheap enough to crater out off improved demand but will need spill-over bottoming action from corn & beans to do so!

 

OCT CAT

The raging bull that is the cattle mkt continued its unrelenting march higher today with Oct Cat up $3.50 & Oct Fdr soaring $5.37! The mkt is fed daily very strong bullish fundamentals including the lowest cattle herd since 1950 & the best demand period of the year – the outdoor grilling season! The cash mkt is stout & demand continues to show up even at the current record levels! The path of least resistance is definitely to the upside!

 

OCT HOG

Inexplicably, Oct Hogs have not accompanied Oct Cat on its near vertical run higher – strapped by mediocre demand & adequate supplies– even though pork is much cheaper than beef in the supermarket! Today’s action is yet even more evidence of the dichotomy in the 2 mkts – with Oct Cat up $3.50 & Oct Hogs down $.20!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337