Softs Report 08/28/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed and little changed yesterday. Better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.90, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 68.90, 69.50 and 69.90 December.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 28
For the week ended Aug 21, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 179.3 0.0 3412.1 4440.8 3033.6 217.1
pima cotton 3.9 0.0 98.1 105.4 67.6 0.0

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in liquidation trading for the higher prices seen earlier in the week. Trends are up on the daily charts. Selling was seen in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 247.00, 244.00, and 233.00 September, with resistance at 272.00, 299.00, and 306.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were much higher yesterday. There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil holding back on offers to world destinations. The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil harvest is moving along, and Indonesia about over. Vietnam is done with its harvest. A cold snap earlier this month will reduce the size of the next coffee crop in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro growing region by around 412,000 60-kg bags, or 5.5%, Expocacer said. Rains will be needed in September to improve the outlook for next year’s arabica crop in Brazil, which has been impacted by dry weather and cold snaps.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 344.64 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were delivered against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 767 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 364.00, 343.00, and 337.00 December, and resistance is at 399.00, 405.00 and 412.00 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 4520, 4450, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4930, 5050, and 5170 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was a little higher yesterday and London was a little lower. The Brazil production could be less, in part due to a recent freeze event and in part to reports of less sucrose in the cane. There were ideas of less European production this year that could rally prices later in the year but have drawn no interest so far from speculators. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Conab on Tuesday cut its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million metric tons, citing bad weather conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1750 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 466.00, and 460.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 517.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher as reports of increased selling pressure from producers abated and weather concerns in West Africa took center stage. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America, but Africa has turned dry and producers there are concerned about potential losses now. The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Dealers said there were signs the U.S. was moving to exempt some cocoa producers from tariffs, including potentially Ecuador and Indonesia. The U.S. has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesian exports of cocoa from the 19% tariff imposed by the US.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that there were 127 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 489 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7480, 7320, and 7150 December, with resistance at 8140, 8500, and 8820
December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5260, 5200, and 5150 December, with resistance at 5500, 5650, and 5700 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322