About The Author

Daniel Flynn

Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374

We kickoff the day with Export Sales, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est, Corporate Profits Prel, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est, GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Est, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est, and Real Spending QoQ 2nd Est at 7:30 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M., and Fed Waller Speech at 5:00 P.M.

 

US home prices began to ease in the spring, and the FHF, while upward pressure on home mortgage has eased which allowed for some improvement in the real estate market in recent months. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report showed the Home Purchase Index was up 2% for the week at 163.8, and 24% higher than a year ago. (Fed Chair Jerome Poweel “Get on the Stick”). This marked the 31st consecutive week of year-over-year gains. While the Home Purchase Index is above the last 2 years, it remains at levels that were last seen following the mid-2000’s financial recession. Moreover, the mortgage demand remains at low levels not seen since the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Lower interest rates will help rekindle demand.

 

Central US Weather Pattern Update

 

Central US Rain Hit & Miss Next 10 Days; No Sign of Frost into Sep 10:

 

The major forecasting models agree, and the Central US forecast is wetter across the Central Plains and Great Lakes Region. A pattern of below normal for the next 9-10 days. Relative warmth resumes thereafter. Low temps across the Dakota’s, MN, MI, and WI will be perched in the low/mid 50’s. Frost is not anticipated into mid-September, and longer term guidance hints at a warmer than normal autumn. IA, MO, and much of the E Midwest will stay arid into mid-Sep. One finishing rain is desired there. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy rainfall is indicated August 31-Sep5. And they are getting a dose of it today. Also, chances for regionally beneficial rain are high in parts of IN & OH.

 

Corn Comments & Analysis

 

Dec Corn Resumes Bear Trend on Cash Basis Weakness; South American Premiums Fall Further:

 

Dec CBOT corn is back testing the 20-day moving average 4.055. Breaking news was absent, but the return of rainfall in the Central Plains is noticed, and cash market nationwide are beginning to reflect the coming onslaught of harvest supply. Bids have rolled to December, but net declines have been posted. Spot basis in Decatur, IL, as follows: August 26-Sep 7delivery: $3.92 per bushel: Sep 8-142025 delivery: $3.96 per bushel; Sep 15-Oct 31, 2025, at $3.86 per bushel. New crop bids on Wednesday sat at $.07–,20/Bu under December corn futures. Movement in the cash market is important , Argentina’s discount to US Gulf origin has widened to $.08/Bu. New crop Ukrainian and Gulf are quoted near parity with one another. Ag Resources (ARC) doubts lasting lows will be scored until mid-harvest amid storage capacity challenges. Certainly, a test of $3.65-$3.85 Dec futures is probable in September. Note also that ongoing tours of IL validate Nass’s record 221 BPA yield forecast. Funds are expected to add to their modest corn short position as the Midwest harvest is just 2-3 weeks away.

 

Have A Great Trading Day!

 

Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com

 

Have A Great Trading Day!

Thanks,

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374