Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 11:45 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
Soybean GD/EX rating is still overall high, but Illinois showed a drop in GD/Ex 6% on Monday. And China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chengang traveling to Washington DC to meet with US officials and business leaders. He will not be meeting high-level US officials. Leaving speculation that Li’s visit is related to US President Trump and Chinese President Xi to hold a face-to-face to talk trade talks later this year. It is not expected that Li’s visit will bridge the negotiation gaps that will allow China to return as a nearby US soybean/importer. CBOT grain values are sensitive to the ongoing trade negotiations with stakes growing each day that China avoids US soybean purchases ahead of the looming harvest. Also in the news Vietnam is planning to ethanol-blended gasoline next year, opening the possibility for the Southeast Asian country to import more corn and ethanol from the US to narrow its trade gap with the US, its largest export market., according to one document. The US recorded a trade deficit of $123 billion with Vietnam last year. Vietnam in March cut its import tariff to 5% from 10%. Donald Trump said last month that Vietnam could import US products with zero tariffs. Vietnam, which consumes less than 30 million tons of petroleum product per year, has also pledged to boost imports of American products in Agriculture and including airplanes, LNG, and crude oil.
CBOT corn fell on forecasts allow rain to expand into the primary Midwest in early September. The sheer weight of the US’s new crop harvest will be an issue for cash markets well into late autumn – production of 16.3-16.7 Bil Bu. Interior cash basis bids our working lower to prepare for the supply onslaught. Continue to reward rallies with forward cash sales. Ukrainian fob corn is unbuyable for Dep shipment, for Oct-Dec quotes are readily available at prices that compete with the US for delivery into the Mideast, North Africa, and SE Asia. Additionally, Ag Resources (ARC) notes Argentine origin is the world’s cheapest this week. It’s the rate of disappearance that is a concern post-harvest, given that combined Brazilian and Ukrainian production will be up by 20-23 MMT’s year-over-year. With US corn crop at 425.6 MMT’s (up 47 MMT’s from last year). US, Brazilian and Ukraine production is up 68-69 MMT’s or 2,700 Bil Bu. It’s like the US grew an additional Argentine corn crop this summer that is available to world importers. And Argentina will seed a record amount of acres of corn that will be harvested in 2026. World corn is a supply bear market.
Corn Global Supply Drives Weekend. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/27/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 11:45 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
Soybean GD/EX rating is still overall high, but Illinois showed a drop in GD/Ex 6% on Monday. And China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chengang traveling to Washington DC to meet with US officials and business leaders. He will not be meeting high-level US officials. Leaving speculation that Li’s visit is related to US President Trump and Chinese President Xi to hold a face-to-face to talk trade talks later this year. It is not expected that Li’s visit will bridge the negotiation gaps that will allow China to return as a nearby US soybean/importer. CBOT grain values are sensitive to the ongoing trade negotiations with stakes growing each day that China avoids US soybean purchases ahead of the looming harvest. Also in the news Vietnam is planning to ethanol-blended gasoline next year, opening the possibility for the Southeast Asian country to import more corn and ethanol from the US to narrow its trade gap with the US, its largest export market., according to one document. The US recorded a trade deficit of $123 billion with Vietnam last year. Vietnam in March cut its import tariff to 5% from 10%. Donald Trump said last month that Vietnam could import US products with zero tariffs. Vietnam, which consumes less than 30 million tons of petroleum product per year, has also pledged to boost imports of American products in Agriculture and including airplanes, LNG, and crude oil.
CBOT Corn Corrects; Oversold Supply Dominant Issue; Forward Ukrainian Corn Competitive:
CBOT corn fell on forecasts allow rain to expand into the primary Midwest in early September. The sheer weight of the US’s new crop harvest will be an issue for cash markets well into late autumn – production of 16.3-16.7 Bil Bu. Interior cash basis bids our working lower to prepare for the supply onslaught. Continue to reward rallies with forward cash sales. Ukrainian fob corn is unbuyable for Dep shipment, for Oct-Dec quotes are readily available at prices that compete with the US for delivery into the Mideast, North Africa, and SE Asia. Additionally, Ag Resources (ARC) notes Argentine origin is the world’s cheapest this week. It’s the rate of disappearance that is a concern post-harvest, given that combined Brazilian and Ukrainian production will be up by 20-23 MMT’s year-over-year. With US corn crop at 425.6 MMT’s (up 47 MMT’s from last year). US, Brazilian and Ukraine production is up 68-69 MMT’s or 2,700 Bil Bu. It’s like the US grew an additional Argentine corn crop this summer that is available to world importers. And Argentina will seed a record amount of acres of corn that will be harvested in 2026. World corn is a supply bear market.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374