Grooving On Oil. The Energy Report 08/26/2025

 Despite recent speculation about a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and President Trump’s comments, oil prices have eased. Oil rallied yesterday on concerns that ceasefire talks would break down after Ukraine attacked a lot of Russian oil infrastructure.

OPEC exports are up but still fall short of traders’ expectations. OPEC’s oil output rose further in July after an OPEC+ agreement to raise production, a Reuters survey found on Friday, although the hike was limited by Iraq making additional cuts and by drone attacks on Kurdish oilfields. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.38 million barrels per day last month, up 270,000 bpd from June’s revised total, the survey showed, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia making the largest increases.

The market is also looking for potential Fed rate cuts in September, which could impact both the dollar and energy prices. As refiners prepare for autumn maintenance and demand drop post-Labor Day, the industry is shifting into its quieter season.

Capture cooler temperatures and record-breaking low temperatures in the Midwest definitely took away air conditioning demand. Yet on the demand side for natural gas, we should see records going forward which would lead us to believe that it might be a good time to start looking at the back end of the curve.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas consumption in the United States is projected to rise by 1% and reach a record 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025.

The EIA anticipates increased natural gas use across all sectors except for electric power, which previously drove most growth. The EIA reports that U.S. natural gas consumption was exceptionally high at the start of the year. In January, consumption reached a record 126.8 Bcf/d, marking a 5% increase over the previous record set in January. February 2025 saw consumption at 115.9 Bcf/d, also 5% higher than the February 2021 record. These elevated winter figures were influenced by colder weather, including a mid-January polar vortex.

Historically, U.S. natural gas consumption peaks in January or February, driven by residential and commercial heating demand. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey indicate that 45% of homes rely on natural gas as their primary heating source.

The EIA estimates that natural gas consumption declined during spring and summer relative to the previous year, with the electric power sector showing the largest decrease. While natural gas remains the leading source of electricity generation in the United States, coal, solar, and wind have gained market share in the electric power sector thus far in 2025.

Still weather has to be watched. Fox Weather Tropical Storm Fernand is continuing to spin across the open waters of the Atlantic, and forecasters say it’s likely to become post-tropical on Tuesday night or Wednesday. The tropical storm had been strengthening since the weekend, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that it’s starting to move over cooler waters and an unfavorable environment.

Don’t forget—if you want up-to-the-minute storm coverage, download the Fox Weather App! For financial updates, tune in to the Fox Business Network.

And if you’re interested in market moves or want to open an account, reach out for Phil Flynn and get my Daily Trade Levels too. You can read me at 888-935-6487 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.