The Feds New Gold Rush. Manic Metals Report 08/25/2025

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sparked a mini gold rush after he came off somewhat hawkish in his speech at Jackson Hole.  The Fed chairman acknowledged that the labor market was weakening more than expected and because the Fed’s main job is financial stability, may have to retreat from his reluctant stance on rates and signal a cut.
Powell has come off somewhat politically, and at the last Fed meeting, two Fed officials voted against him in favor of an interest rate cut. Other Fed members, after they saw the jobs report, wished they had cut rates at that meeting and, considering that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had no choice but to come off a bit hawkish, while he’s also signaling that the impact from the tariffs might be less than anticipated, he is still stubborn when it comes to suggesting the tariffs cause inflation.
If you blink, you might have missed the market’s pulse quickening—because traders are already pricing in not one, but two quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed before we even ring in the new year. That’s a tailwind for gold bulls, folks. Chairman Powell, in his signature tightrope walk, is watching a labor market that’s losing a bit more steam than the Fed would like, while inflation still lurks in the background. The stakes? Higher than ever. The prospect of a policy pivot could take the shackles off gold, especially as yields on Treasuries react and traders look to safe havens.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves—Powell made it clear that all eyes ought to be on the upcoming GDP prints and the ever-crucial PCE numbers. If growth cools further and inflation keeps pulling back, we could see a stampede into gold. The message for investors? Stay nimble and keep watching those data points—because the next move from the Fed could send shockwaves across the precious metals landscape.
Silver futures might be more attractive at some point than gold physical investment in silver coins and bars and ETF’s expected to rise by 3% this year high silver prices could reduce some demand for silver jewelry and silverware which sales are down 6% for jewelry for silver and down 16% for silverware in 2025 China courses particularly a big buyer of metals but also very price sensitive.
Still fundamentally we still expect silver to take off the key thing of course is once we get through that incredible resistance at 40 it could start to really take off.
Copper futures are finally trying to break out of its sideways pattern to the upside after president trump flip flop on tariffs US producers started to buy products in the course when president trump made an exemption a very tight market all of a sudden looked oversupplied but long term across the copper market is in a sustainable long term uptrend in our humble opinion as demand will continue to exceed supply in the future coppers high electrical thermal conductivity makes it perfect for the power grid.
The copper market in 2025 has been shaken up by President Donald Trump’s decision to slap a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products—think pipes, wires, rods, and all those copper-heavy cables and connectors—while giving refined copper and scrap a free pass. This move, part of a Section 232 action under the Trade Expansion Act, really changed the game for copper supply, demand, and pricing.
first. Earlier this year, importers rushed to bring in as much refined copper as possible, expecting tariffs on everything. T
hat led to U.S. warehouse inventories reaching a 21-year high, and global copper shipments took a detour, draining LME stocks by half as traders chased the price difference between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME).
But when the government announced a carve-out for refined copper and scrap, that arbitrage trade got flipped on its head. Suddenly, the U.S. was swimming in copper, and analysts feared that some of those extra supplies might get shipped back out to global markets, which could ease shortages internationally but keep prices low in the States.
The administration also decreed that U.S. producers should sell a rising percentage of high-quality copper scrap and input materials domestically over the next several years, starting at 25% in 2027 and climbing to 40% by 2029. The idea is to encourage more domestic refining, but since building new facilities isn’t quick work, we could actually end up short-handed for a while as the industry adjusts.
Now, as for demand, it’s still robust thanks to copper’s crucial role in green energy, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure. The world’s hunger for copper is fueled by the energy transition—battery-powered cars, wind turbines, solar panels, you name it. However, the new tariff is likely to make life harder for U.S. manufacturers who rely on semi-finished copper.
We’re talking about everything from electronics to construction supplies. These tariffs could cause prices for copper-heavy products, like wiring and plumbing, to jump a few percentage points.
That might slow down demand in more sensitive sectors like real estate, where even a $5,000 bump in costs on a $50,000 home can make waves.
Globally, copper demand should stay solid, especially in China and emerging markets, though any economic slowdown in China or Europe may temper the pace.
Subsequently, prices have stabilized to.
The sprea The Manic Metals Report Monday August 25, 2025
The Feds New Gold Rush
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sparked a mini gold rush after he came off somewhat hawkish in his speech at Jackson Hole.  The Fed chairman acknowledged that the labor market was weakening more than expected and because the Fed’s main job is financial stability, may have to retreat from his reluctant stance on rates and signal a cut.
Powell has come off somewhat politically, and at the last Fed meeting, two Fed officials voted against him in favor of an interest rate cut. Other Fed members, after they saw the jobs report, wished they had cut rates at that meeting and, considering that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had no choice but to come off a bit hawkish, while he’s also signaling that the impact from the tariffs might be less than anticipated, he is still stubborn when it comes to suggesting the tariffs cause inflation.
If you blink, you might have missed the market’s pulse quickening—because traders are already pricing in not one, but two quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed before we even ring in the new year. That’s a tailwind for gold bulls, folks. Chairman Powell, in his signature tightrope walk, is watching a labor market that’s losing a bit more steam than the Fed would like, while inflation still lurks in the background. The stakes? Higher than ever. The prospect of a policy pivot could take the shackles off gold, especially as yields on Treasuries react and traders look to safe havens.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves—Powell made it clear that all eyes ought to be on the upcoming GDP prints and the ever-crucial PCE numbers. If growth cools further and inflation keeps pulling back, we could see a stampede into gold. The message for investors? Stay nimble and keep watching those data points—because the next move from the Fed could send shockwaves across the precious metals landscape.
Silver futures might be more attractive at some point than gold physical investment in silver coins and bars and ETF’s expected to rise by 3% this year high silver prices could reduce some demand for silver jewelry and silverware which sales are down 6% for jewelry for silver and down 16% for silverware in 2025 China courses particularly a big buyer of metals but also very price sensitive.
Still fundamentally we still expect silver to take off the key thing of course is once we get through that incredible resistance at 40 it could start to really take off.
Copper futures are finally trying to break out of its sideways pattern to the upside after president trump flip flop on tariffs US producers started to buy products in the course when president trump made an exemption a very tight market all of a sudden looked oversupplied but long term across the copper market is in a sustainable long term uptrend in our humble opinion as demand will continue to exceed supply in the future coppers high electrical thermal conductivity makes it perfect for the power grid.
The copper market in 2025 has been shaken up by President Donald Trump’s decision to slap a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products—think pipes, wires, rods, and all those copper-heavy cables and connectors—while giving refined copper and scrap a free pass. This move, part of a Section 232 action under the Trade Expansion Act, really changed the game for copper supply, demand, and pricing.
first. Earlier this year, importers rushed to bring in as much refined copper as possible, expecting tariffs on everything. T
hat led to U.S. warehouse inventories reaching a 21-year high, and global copper shipments took a detour, draining LME stocks by half as traders chased the price difference between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME).
But when the government announced a carve-out for refined copper and scrap, that arbitrage trade got flipped on its head. Suddenly, the U.S. was swimming in copper, and analysts feared that some of those extra supplies might get shipped back out to global markets, which could ease shortages internationally but keep prices low in the States.
The administration also decreed that U.S. producers should sell a rising percentage of high-quality copper scrap and input materials domestically over the next several years, starting at 25% in 2027 and climbing to 40% by 2029. The idea is to encourage more domestic refining, but since building new facilities isn’t quick work, we could actually end up short-handed for a while as the industry adjusts.
Now, as for demand, it’s still robust thanks to copper’s crucial role in  green energy, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure. The world’s hunger for copper is fueled by the energy transition—battery-powered cars, wind turbines, solar panels, you name it. However, the new tariff is likely to make life harder for U.S. manufacturers who rely on semi-finished copper.
We’re talking about everything from electronics to construction supplies. These tariffs could cause prices for copper-heavy products, like wiring and plumbing, to jump a few percentage points.
That might slow down demand in more sensitive sectors like real estate, where even a $5,000 bump in costs on a $50,000 home can make waves.
Globally, copper demand should stay solid, especially in China and emerging markets, though any economic slowdown in China or Europe may temper the pace.
Subsequently, prices have stabilized to.
The spread  between U.S. and European copper prices  come in considerably, with the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange now approximately $9,698.50 per metric ton ($4.40 per pound).
.
From a trade perspective, the exemption benefits major copper-exporting countries such as Chile, Peru, Canada, and Mexico. Codelco, the world’s largest producer, expressed particular satisfaction, as the U.S. remains accessible for raw copper exports.
Chinese refiners, who account for about 70% of global copper refining, are adapting supply strategies to export refined copper to the U.S., circumventing tariffs on semi-finished products.
Domestically, mining companies such as Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper have faced share price declines—Freeport, for instance, fell 9% after the exemption announcement.
Nonetheless, new regulations mandating increased use of domestic scrap could support eventual earnings recovery
Recycling companies are set to gain, since prices for scrap copper are expected to go up by 15–20% by the end of the year. For manufacturers—especially those making electric cars, electronics, and homes—higher tariffs on certain copper products will mean tighter profits unless they pass those costs on to buyers. Electric cars use a lot of copper, sometimes up to 100 kilograms each, so these changes hit them hard. In addition, the U.S. only has three big copper smelters now (compared to fifteen in the 1980s), which makes it tough to quickly boost production at home.
Trump is looking to make something great again by encouraging more domestic production. COVID taught us a lot about the supply chains and our reliance of other countries especially China who doesn’t necessarily like us and in a real emergency will not have our backs.
There’s real optimism in the air as these new tariff measures shift the focus to strengthening our national security and revitalizing domestic industry. By reducing reliance on foreign copper, especially for crucial defense and infrastructure projects, the U.S. is positioning itself for long-term resilience. While the market is adjusting to these changes, this transition opens a world of opportunity for American producers and innovators. The future is bright for those ready to take the lead in building America’s copper independence.

Spread  between U.S. and European copper prices come in considerably, with the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange now approximately $9,698.50 per metric ton ($4.40 per pound).
.
From a trade perspective, the exemption benefits major copper-exporting countries such as Chile, Peru, Canada, and Mexico. Codelco, the world’s largest producer, expressed particular satisfaction, as the U.S. remains accessible for raw copper exports.
Chinese refiners, who account for about 70% of global copper refining, are adapting supply strategies to export refined copper to the U.S., circumventing tariffs on semi-finished products.
Domestically, mining companies such as Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper have faced share price declines—Freeport, for instance, fell 9% after the exemption announcement.
Nonetheless, new regulations mandating increased use of domestic scrap could support eventual earnings recovery
Recycling companies are set to gain, since prices for scrap copper are expected to go up by 15–20% by the end of the year. For manufacturers—especially those making electric cars, electronics, and homes—higher tariffs on certain copper products will mean tighter profits unless they pass those costs on to buyers. Electric cars use a lot of copper, sometimes up to 100 kilograms each, so these changes hit them hard. In addition, the U.S. only has three big copper smelters now (compared to fifteen in the 1980s), which makes it tough to quickly boost production at home.
Trump is looking to make something great again by encouraging more domestic production. COVID taught us a lot about the supply chains and our reliance of other countries especially China who doesn’t necessarily like us and in a real emergency will not have our backs.
There’s real optimism in the air as these new tariff measures shift the focus to strengthening our national security and revitalizing domestic industry. By reducing reliance on foreign copper, especially for crucial defense and infrastructure projects, the U.S. is positioning itself for long-term resilience. While the market is adjusting to these changes, this transition opens a world of opportunity for American producers and innovators. The future is bright for those ready to take the lead in building America’s copper independence.
Call me with any metals questions you might have at 888-264-5665 or e-mail me at pflynn@pricegroup.com