This last week or more has been fairly miserable from a heat but mainly humidity perspective. However, a look at the forecast and tonight’s overnight temps shows a cooling off period. The extended forecast also looks on the cooler side. Also, after a fairly wet summer, we have shifted drier, as well as the forecast. It seems not only the weather patterns are shifting, but also the market perspective. After what seems like an eternity since we have gotten a move higher, the corn market had some follow through from last week’s bounce, with beans shifting back to thoughts of testing the February highs. There are a couple patterns that haven’t shifted though. Wheat continues to grind to $5, and the cattle market bulls are on a seemingly never-ending push to the moon.
Corn polished off the follow through to last week’s gains with September up 4 ½ cents this week and December 6 ¼ cents higher. USDA reported several flash export sales this week, totaling 609,962 MT reported for new crop. The annual ProFarmer crop tour was held this week, with several of the states along the tour showing yields above last year. The Profarmer crop estimate was 182.7 bpa and 16.204 billion bushels on the production side. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 72% in the dough stage as of August 10, with 27% dented. Ratings slipped another 1% this week at 71% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 382. EIA’s ethanol production data showed an drop of 21,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 8 at 1.072 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were up 39,000 barrels to 22.688 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 27,109 MT in the week that ended on August 14, with new crop sales improving to 2.86 MMT. Commitment of Traders data showed Managed money slashing 31,464 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 144,650 contracts.
The wheat complex continues to be the weak spot, across all three markets. Chicago SRW futures were down 1 3/4 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing a 9 cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was down just 1/2 cents. Crop Progress data showed 94% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind normal. The US spring wheat crop was 36% harvested, with ratings up 1% to 50% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 333, up 2 on the week. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 519,752 MT, a 5-week low. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 11.57 MMT, 49% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 45% average pace. Chicago wheat specs added another 8,837 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 98,132 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by just 825 contracts to 51,380 contracts by August 19.
Soybeans continued the charge higher this week, with September up 14 ¼ cents and November rallying another 16 cents. The product values were higher, with September meal $13.30/ton higher and September bean oil up 166 points this week. On Friday, The EPA granted 63 full Small Refinery Exemptions on the 175 petitions from the 2016-2024 backlog, with another 77 partial exemptions granted. There were 28 petitions denied and 7 listed as ineligible. The annual Midwest crop tour was held this week, with pod counts coming in above last years across several states. The ProFarmer crop estimate for yield was 53 bpa, with production at 4.246 bbu. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 82% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/17. Condition ratings were unchanged at 68% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 373. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings at 5,738 MT in net reductions for the week of August 14. New crop business was up in that week to a new MY high of 1.143 MMT. Managed money was reported as cutting back another 35,270 contracts from their net short by August 19, turning that to a net long of just 3 contracts.
Live cattle futures were $7.22 higher on the week. Cash trade was firmer this week at $237-240 in the South and $245 in the North. Feeders were up another $15.325 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index were up another $4.53 week/week to $350.18. Wholesale boxed beef continued the surge into the Labor Day run. Choice was up $7.34 (1.8%) this week to $407.91. Select was $12.90 (3.5%) higher to $383.66. Weekly beef production was up 3.3% from last week but 8.8% below the same week last year at 472.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data indicated July placements at 1.598 million head, 6.11% below last year, with July marketings down 5.71% at 1.749 million head. August 1 on feed inventory was down 1.56% at 10.922 million head. A total of 397.818 million lbs of beef was on hand at the end of July according to Cold Storage data, a drop of 0.64% from last year and 0.98% above July 2024. Managed money cut back another 294 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 124,519 contracts. Spec funds trimmed their net long by just 381 contracts from their net long to 33,156 contracts by August 19.
Hogs saw some gains to close out the week, up $1.10 in the October contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.51 this week at $108.32 as of August 20. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $3.44 this week to $112.96/cwt. The butt, picnic, and rib were the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 0.1% from last week but still 4.1% below the same week last year at 506.4 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.2% on a 2.4% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 19,210 MT in pork sales during the week ending on August 14. Shipments were back up to a 5-week high at 28,558 MT. USDA’s Cold Storage report tallied a total of 404.583 million lb of pork stocks as of July 31, a drop of 10.76% from last year and 3.37% below June. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money cutting back 4,964 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 105,768 contracts.
Cotton posted another round of gains this week, as December was up 47 points on the week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 97% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 8/17 and 73% setting bolls, with 13% opening. Condition ratings were up 2% to 55% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was up 11 to 349. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 105,373 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/14. Shipments slipped to 123,292 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.233 million RB, which is 29% of the USDA forecast and lags the 46% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 48 points higher this week, to 55.53 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders trimming just 766 contracts from their net short position as of August 19 to a net -56,317 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts out with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report, as August feeder cattle futures and options expire. Monthly PCE data will be released on Friday. August live cattle futures expire on Friday, as well as first notice day for September grains.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
After breaking higher on last week, there was a bit of a consolidation period post USDA reports. That period was short lived and created what we call a pennant formation. The conservative count on the breakout would be $10.69, but throwing the flagpole on to the count would get you to a count of $11.09. We don’t have to go there immediately, but that would be the objective. We took out the right shoulder of the H&S top on Friday, invalidating that move. The more immediate target for the bulls would be the high from February at $10.75 ¾. Remember the seasonal high has never been in February over the last 50 years. That could be seen as a triple top, as the June high got within 1 ½ cents. Triple tops (almost) never hold. Stochastics are overbought, but ADX is rising suggesting a look at the MACD, which is bullish with momentum increasing.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Shifting Patterns. Ag Marketing Report 08/25/2025
This last week or more has been fairly miserable from a heat but mainly humidity perspective. However, a look at the forecast and tonight’s overnight temps shows a cooling off period. The extended forecast also looks on the cooler side. Also, after a fairly wet summer, we have shifted drier, as well as the forecast. It seems not only the weather patterns are shifting, but also the market perspective. After what seems like an eternity since we have gotten a move higher, the corn market had some follow through from last week’s bounce, with beans shifting back to thoughts of testing the February highs. There are a couple patterns that haven’t shifted though. Wheat continues to grind to $5, and the cattle market bulls are on a seemingly never-ending push to the moon.
Corn polished off the follow through to last week’s gains with September up 4 ½ cents this week and December 6 ¼ cents higher. USDA reported several flash export sales this week, totaling 609,962 MT reported for new crop. The annual ProFarmer crop tour was held this week, with several of the states along the tour showing yields above last year. The Profarmer crop estimate was 182.7 bpa and 16.204 billion bushels on the production side. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 72% in the dough stage as of August 10, with 27% dented. Ratings slipped another 1% this week at 71% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 382. EIA’s ethanol production data showed an drop of 21,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 8 at 1.072 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were up 39,000 barrels to 22.688 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 27,109 MT in the week that ended on August 14, with new crop sales improving to 2.86 MMT. Commitment of Traders data showed Managed money slashing 31,464 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 144,650 contracts.
The wheat complex continues to be the weak spot, across all three markets. Chicago SRW futures were down 1 3/4 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing a 9 cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was down just 1/2 cents. Crop Progress data showed 94% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind normal. The US spring wheat crop was 36% harvested, with ratings up 1% to 50% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 333, up 2 on the week. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 519,752 MT, a 5-week low. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 11.57 MMT, 49% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 45% average pace. Chicago wheat specs added another 8,837 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 98,132 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by just 825 contracts to 51,380 contracts by August 19.
Soybeans continued the charge higher this week, with September up 14 ¼ cents and November rallying another 16 cents. The product values were higher, with September meal $13.30/ton higher and September bean oil up 166 points this week. On Friday, The EPA granted 63 full Small Refinery Exemptions on the 175 petitions from the 2016-2024 backlog, with another 77 partial exemptions granted. There were 28 petitions denied and 7 listed as ineligible. The annual Midwest crop tour was held this week, with pod counts coming in above last years across several states. The ProFarmer crop estimate for yield was 53 bpa, with production at 4.246 bbu. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 82% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/17. Condition ratings were unchanged at 68% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 373. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings at 5,738 MT in net reductions for the week of August 14. New crop business was up in that week to a new MY high of 1.143 MMT. Managed money was reported as cutting back another 35,270 contracts from their net short by August 19, turning that to a net long of just 3 contracts.
Live cattle futures were $7.22 higher on the week. Cash trade was firmer this week at $237-240 in the South and $245 in the North. Feeders were up another $15.325 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index were up another $4.53 week/week to $350.18. Wholesale boxed beef continued the surge into the Labor Day run. Choice was up $7.34 (1.8%) this week to $407.91. Select was $12.90 (3.5%) higher to $383.66. Weekly beef production was up 3.3% from last week but 8.8% below the same week last year at 472.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data indicated July placements at 1.598 million head, 6.11% below last year, with July marketings down 5.71% at 1.749 million head. August 1 on feed inventory was down 1.56% at 10.922 million head. A total of 397.818 million lbs of beef was on hand at the end of July according to Cold Storage data, a drop of 0.64% from last year and 0.98% above July 2024. Managed money cut back another 294 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 124,519 contracts. Spec funds trimmed their net long by just 381 contracts from their net long to 33,156 contracts by August 19.
Hogs saw some gains to close out the week, up $1.10 in the October contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.51 this week at $108.32 as of August 20. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $3.44 this week to $112.96/cwt. The butt, picnic, and rib were the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 0.1% from last week but still 4.1% below the same week last year at 506.4 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.2% on a 2.4% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 19,210 MT in pork sales during the week ending on August 14. Shipments were back up to a 5-week high at 28,558 MT. USDA’s Cold Storage report tallied a total of 404.583 million lb of pork stocks as of July 31, a drop of 10.76% from last year and 3.37% below June. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money cutting back 4,964 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 105,768 contracts.
Cotton posted another round of gains this week, as December was up 47 points on the week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 97% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 8/17 and 73% setting bolls, with 13% opening. Condition ratings were up 2% to 55% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was up 11 to 349. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 105,373 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/14. Shipments slipped to 123,292 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.233 million RB, which is 29% of the USDA forecast and lags the 46% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 48 points higher this week, to 55.53 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders trimming just 766 contracts from their net short position as of August 19 to a net -56,317 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts out with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report, as August feeder cattle futures and options expire. Monthly PCE data will be released on Friday. August live cattle futures expire on Friday, as well as first notice day for September grains.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
After breaking higher on last week, there was a bit of a consolidation period post USDA reports. That period was short lived and created what we call a pennant formation. The conservative count on the breakout would be $10.69, but throwing the flagpole on to the count would get you to a count of $11.09. We don’t have to go there immediately, but that would be the objective. We took out the right shoulder of the H&S top on Friday, invalidating that move. The more immediate target for the bulls would be the high from February at $10.75 ¾. Remember the seasonal high has never been in February over the last 50 years. That could be seen as a triple top, as the June high got within 1 ½ cents. Triple tops (almost) never hold. Stochastics are overbought, but ADX is rising suggesting a look at the MACD, which is bullish with momentum increasing.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.