AgMaster Report – 08/21/2025

SEPT CORN

The 8-12-25 August WASDE Report was quite bearish – not surprising – predicting a 16.742 bb Crop & a 188.8 bpa yield!  Now the mkt awaits several crop tours to see if they mesh with the USDA! Early yield reports were positive with some tip-back in Indiana but high ear counts in Iowa! The gold standard – The Pro Farmer Tour – concludes in Minnesota on Thur with final #’s announced Fri am! The mkt has dialed in a pretty sizeable crop already but “big crops get bigger”! Exports have continued to be excellent & a falling US Dollar has helped support them! Watch carefully for “bullish divergence” when bearish news no longer can push prices lower – as an indication a seasonal low has been achieved!

 

SEPT BEANS

Unlike corn, the August USDA Report was bullish with an estimated bean crop at 4.292 bb – under the 4.371 estimate! All the US & Global stock estimates were well under the predictions – and the mkt responded accordingly – rallying 30 cents interday! The mkt has been pounded down under $10 – due to a lack of a US-China deal but non-China demand has shown up & stocks are not plentiful! Domestic demand has been healthy – the Aug lows should hold – whatever the final  production – & of course a grain deal with China – later on would provide a big boost to futures prices! Ten Dollars is plenty cheap for Fall beans! Much like corn, the bean mkt anxiously awaits the Crop Tour results!

 

SEPT WHT

A key reversal up yesterday is encouraging amidst a plethora of bearish news including a Pro Farmer Tour reporting record yields, an increase in Russian production & rain in the S Plains! Sept Wht is certainly cheap enough to crater out off improved demand but will need spill-over bottoming action from corn & beans to do so!

 

OCT CAT

The raging bull that is the cattle mkt continued its unrelenting march higher today with Oct Cat up $3.50 & Oct Fdr soaring $5.37! The mkt is fed daily very strong bullish fundamentals including the lowest cattle herd since 1950 & the best demand period of the year – the outdoor grilling season! The cash mkt is stout & demand continues to show up even at the current record levels! The path of least resistance is definitely to the upside!

 

OCT HOG

Inexplicably, Oct Hogs have not accompanied Oct Cat on its near vertical run higher – strapped by mediocre demand & adequate supplies– even though pork is much cheaper than beef in the supermarket! Today’s action is yet even more evidence of the dichotomy in the 2 mkts – with Oct Cat up $3.50 & Oct Hogs down $.20!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337