Softs Report 08/18/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week partly in response to the USDA reports on Tuesday that showed reduced production from reduced planted area. The USDA WASDE reports showed production of 13.214 million bales. US ending stocks were estimated at 3.60 million bales, from 4.60 million last month. World stocks were estimated at 73.9 million bales, from 77.3 million last month. Better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again, but demand was improved for the week. The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.90, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 68.50, 69.90 and 69.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 289,340
: Positions :
: 35,208 97,185 74,437 84,490 82,425 82,175 22,521 276,311 276,568: 13,029 12,772
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: 14,585) :
: 537 1,759 8,002 4,587 2,645 814 2,793 13,940 15,199: 645 -614
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 33.6 25.7 29.2 28.5 28.4 7.8 95.5 95.6: 4.5 4.4
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 118 93 77 59 46 23 267 243:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little higher last week on reports of freezing temperatures in production areas of Brazil, the major exporter of FCOJ to the US and the world. Temperatures there turned more moderate late in the week. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Selling was seen in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 223.00, 216.00, and 207.00 September, with resistance at 257.00, 272.00, and 283.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,280 :
: Positions :
: 2,879 6,127 349 0 280 2,527 596 15 1,437 224 1,459 :
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 :
: 86 -177 -78 0 102 170 271 -25 81 129 36 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.0 59.6 3.4 0.0 2.7 24.6 5.8 0.1 14.0 2.2 14.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 41 :
: 10 9 . 0 . 6 6 . 10 . 6 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher last week with reports of freezing temperatures near Coffee areas of Brazil. Loss reports were not confirmed. Support also came from reduced deliverable supplies for the New York exchange. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest is over, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 297.10 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 324.00, 316.00, and 310.00 September, and resistance is at 349.00, 354.00 and 372.00 September. Trends in London are up. Support is at 3920, 3750, and 3620 September, with resistance at 4300, 4380, and 4520 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 176,165
: Positions :
: 29,100 12,123 58,284 37,828 89,425 43,002 9,076 168,214 168,909: 7,951 7,256
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: -31,421) :
: -1,384 -2,051 -17,403 -11,345 -8,099 -1,460 -3,818 -31,592 -31,371: 172 -49
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.5 6.9 33.1 21.5 50.8 24.4 5.2 95.5 95.9: 4.5 4.1
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 66 108 86 98 43 21 277 250:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week. Ideas are that the losses from a Brazil freeze could be significant, but temperatures are moderate now. There were ideas of less European production this year that could rally prices later in the year but have drawn no interest so far. Pakistan has issued a new international tender earlier in the week to buy 100,000 tons of White Sugar. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year. UNICA said on Friday that center south Brazil Sugar production was 3.61 million tons in the second half of July, down 0.8% from last year. Sugarcane production was down 3% at 50.2 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1750 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 466.00, and 460.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 517.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,040,513
: Positions :
: 114,439 236,312 229,491 371,777 434,710 248,478 70,187 964,184 970,701: 76,329 69,813
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,661) :
: 9,844 -7,419 987 -8,454 23,023 -2,984 1,186 -607 17,776: 10,268 -8,115
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.0 22.7 22.1 35.7 41.8 23.9 6.7 92.7 93.3: 7.3 6.7
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 66 89 70 65 35 21 216 196:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were a little higher last week on reports of increased selling pressure from producers after the recent rally and on reports that temperatures were moderating after reports of cold temperatures in Cocoa areas of Brazil. There are ideas that some of the Cocoa was damaged. Demand ideas were down on Friday after the Swiss Chocolate Association said that the Trump tariffs would hurt sales by its members into the US. The President imposed a 34% tariff on Switzerland last week. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7500, and 7210 September, with resistance at 8680, 8900, and 9320 September. Trends in London are mixed up. Support is at 5590, 5300, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5740, 6010, and 6160 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 115,185
: Positions :
: 15,438 13,030 30,937 35,070 59,343 21,591 4,732 103,035 108,042: 12,150 7,143
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: -1,138) :
: 2,056 140 -3,280 -553 2,499 -1,037 -559 -2,815 -1,200: 1,677 62
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 11.3 26.9 30.4 51.5 18.7 4.1 89.5 93.8: 10.5 6.2
: Total Traders: 158 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 46 41 60 32 35 26 12 137 117:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322