Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Federal Reserve reported that the US Industrial Production Index in July eased slightly, after reaching a record high in June. The July reading on the index was down 0.12% from June, and was 1.43% higher than a year ago. This marked the 8th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, and it was the largest increase since January 2023. Manufacturing output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production was up 0.1% from June and was 1.4% higher than a year ago, the largest annualized increase since October 2022. Mining output increased 0.4% from June, while utilities production was well above the November low of 7.68%. Industrial production looks to swell in the coming months following massive investments in US manufacturing.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Southern Midwest Dry into Sep 1; Mix of Rain/Sun Forecast Elsewhere:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. Net moisture loss will persist across TN/KY as well as the southern parts of IL, IN, and OH into the very end of August. Heavy rain through the next two weeks favors MN, WI, and MI, and a mix of rain, sun and cooler temps is offered to the Dakotas, NE, IA, and larger parts of MO and northern IL. Ag Resources (ARC) views the forecast as non-threatening, though more rain is desired across the southern Midwest. Importantly, the principal forecasting models maintain a relatively cooler temp profile beyond late next week. Temps in the E Plains & primary Midwest after the Aug 19th drop into the low 80’s. Hurricane Erin is not expected to make US landfall but is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the US, Bermuda, and the Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Follows Soybeans Higher on Crush, but Unable to Breach Chart Resistance; Pro Farmer Tour Dominates This Week:
Corn prices ended sharply higher but were again unable to score weekly reversals. Chart based resistance remains in place at $4.10-$4.12 December, and importantly ARC has found no material loss of yield potential in the drier areas of Illinois. It’s both population and kernel numbers that validate NASS’s initial record yield estimates in IA & IL. It’s a grind lower until some measure of combined data is available in the principal Corn Belt. ARC strongly doubts lows have been posted. Managed funds on Tuesday were short a net 176,000 contracts, up 3,000 on the previous week but still above max short positions established in similar years of supply abundance. Pro Farmer dominates daily price discovery as whispers will be coming from the corn stalks. Be prepared for large yield estimates and massive soy pod counts.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/18/2025
We kickoff the day with NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Federal Reserve reported that the US Industrial Production Index in July eased slightly, after reaching a record high in June. The July reading on the index was down 0.12% from June, and was 1.43% higher than a year ago. This marked the 8th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, and it was the largest increase since January 2023. Manufacturing output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production was up 0.1% from June and was 1.4% higher than a year ago, the largest annualized increase since October 2022. Mining output increased 0.4% from June, while utilities production was well above the November low of 7.68%. Industrial production looks to swell in the coming months following massive investments in US manufacturing.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Southern Midwest Dry into Sep 1; Mix of Rain/Sun Forecast Elsewhere:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. Net moisture loss will persist across TN/KY as well as the southern parts of IL, IN, and OH into the very end of August. Heavy rain through the next two weeks favors MN, WI, and MI, and a mix of rain, sun and cooler temps is offered to the Dakotas, NE, IA, and larger parts of MO and northern IL. Ag Resources (ARC) views the forecast as non-threatening, though more rain is desired across the southern Midwest. Importantly, the principal forecasting models maintain a relatively cooler temp profile beyond late next week. Temps in the E Plains & primary Midwest after the Aug 19th drop into the low 80’s. Hurricane Erin is not expected to make US landfall but is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the US, Bermuda, and the Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Follows Soybeans Higher on Crush, but Unable to Breach Chart Resistance; Pro Farmer Tour Dominates This Week:
Corn prices ended sharply higher but were again unable to score weekly reversals. Chart based resistance remains in place at $4.10-$4.12 December, and importantly ARC has found no material loss of yield potential in the drier areas of Illinois. It’s both population and kernel numbers that validate NASS’s initial record yield estimates in IA & IL. It’s a grind lower until some measure of combined data is available in the principal Corn Belt. ARC strongly doubts lows have been posted. Managed funds on Tuesday were short a net 176,000 contracts, up 3,000 on the previous week but still above max short positions established in similar years of supply abundance. Pro Farmer dominates daily price discovery as whispers will be coming from the corn stalks. Be prepared for large yield estimates and massive soy pod counts.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374