This week in the ag markets was pretty interesting. It’s not every day that you get over 1 billion bushels of corn added to the balance sheet, nor is it every day that you get larger than a 2 million acre swing to both corn and beans acreage. In referencing the corn number, Tuesday’s USDA report was one of the more bearish reports in recent memory, just due to the added bushels, and record crop. One would think with that size of adjustment, mostly unexpected mind you, the market would be in shambles. However, looking at the week over week changes, we see that the market has held up this week in relative terms. Additionally, the low that the market put in on Tuesday following the production increase held for the week. Remembering back to one of my personal favorite movies, Braveheart, there’s a part in battle where Mel Gibson’s character is sitting on his horse with his sword in the air, screaming “hold!” to his fellow soldiers. That part is quite analogous to bulls in the corn market this week as someone saw some reason to try and put a floor under things. We’ll have to wait and see how this battle plays out, but the bulls will thus far claim a victory.
Despite the 13+ cent loss on the Tuesday session due to the increased production, September managed a penny gain wk/wk, with December slipping just ¼ cent. The Tuesday Crop Production report from NASS showed a surprising 2.1 million acres of corn added and yield pegged at 188.8 bpa. That raised production over 1 billion bushels from the July WASDE. A few demand changes took the ending stocks figure for new crop to 2.117 bbu, up 457 mbu, as old crop was down 35 mbu to 1.305 bbu. USDA reported a few less flash export sales this week, with 562,658 MT reported for new crop. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 94% silking as of August 10, with 58% in the dough stage. Ratings slipped back 1% this week at 72% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 383. EIA’s ethanol production data showed an increase of 12,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 8 at 1.093 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw another draw, this time of 1.107 million barrels to 22.649 million. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 88,686 MT in the week that ended on August 7, with new crop still seeing elevated sales at 2.04 MMT. Managed money spec traders added back another 2,364 to their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 176,114 contracts.
The wheat complex was the weak spot this week, across all three markets. Chicago SRW futures were down 8 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing an 11 1/4 cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was back down 6 3/4 cents. USDA trimmed US wheat output total by just 2 mbu to 1.927 billion bushels, as winter wheat was raised by 10 mbu and spring wheat was cut by 20 mbu. New crop carryout as trimmed by 21 mbu to 869 mbu. Crop Progress data showed 90% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind normal. The US spring wheat crop was 16% harvested, with ratings back up 1% to 49% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 331, down 1 on the week. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 722,846 MT, which was the second largest this marketing year. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 11.03 MMT, 46% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 43% average pace. Chicago wheat specs adding another 8,526 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 89,295 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 6,508 contracts their net short position to 50,555 contracts by August 12.
Soybeans were in rally mode all week with exception to Thursday, as September was up 54 ½ cents and November rallying 55 cents. The product values were higher, with September meal $6.80/ton higher and September bean oil back up 47 points this week. The monthly Crop Production update added a few rounds of ammo to the bulls belt, with acreage cut by 2.5 million acres and yield up to 53.6 bpa. Production was trimmed by 43 mbu, as the ending stock for old and new crop were down 20 mbu to 330 and 290, respectively. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 91% of the US soybean crop blooming by 8/10 and 71% setting pods. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point to 68% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 374. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to a MY low of 377,610 MT in net reductions for the week of August 8. New crop business was back up in that week to a MY high of 1.133 MMT. NOPA data showed a record 195.7 mbu of soybeans crushed among members in July. Soybean Oil stocks were tallied at 1.378 billion lbs, 14.68% below last year. CFTC data indicated managed money cutting back 30,660 contracts from their net short by August 12, to 35,270 contracts.
Live cattle futures managed to pull out a $3.70 gain this week, despite back and forth trade all week long. Cash trade was steady this week at $235 in the South and $243-245 in the North. Feeders were up $6.75 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index were up another $8.54 week/week to $345.75. Wholesale boxed beef continued the surge into the Labor Day run. Choice was up $21.73 (5.73%) this week to $400.57, surpassing $400 for the first time on record excluding the Covid run. Select was $15.67 (4.4%) higher to $370.76. Weekly beef production was down 1.1% from last week and 11.1% below the same week last year at 457.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.8% lower on a 6.6% decline in slaughter. USDA Export Sales data showed a total of just 4,282 MT of beef sold in the week ending on August 7, a calendar year low. Actual shipments were a 4-week low at 11,358 MT. Managed money cut back 752 contracts to their net long position as of 8/12, taking it to 124,813 contracts as of Tuesday. Spec funds trimmed their net long by 3,542 contracts from their previous record net long to 33,537 contracts by August 12.
Hogs did ease back into some weakness this week as October was down 57 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was 27 cents lower this week at $109.83 as of August 13. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped back just $1.01 this week to $116.40/cwt. The ham and picnic were the only primals reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 2.5% from last week but still 3.7% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2.2% on a 2.4% drop in slaughter. Pork export sales totaled 21,202 MT in the week ending on August 7, which was back down from last week. Shipments were a 3-week low at 26,989 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding back 1,446 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 110,732 contracts.
Cotton posted early gains this week but gave some back in the last half, as December was up just 94 points on the week. USDA showed a total of 840,000 planted acres and 1.3 million harvested acres cut from cotton on Tuesday, with yield up 53 lbs to 862 lbs/ac. Production was still slashed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales. Mixed with a 100,000 bale cut to old crop stocks to 4 million bales, that helped to tighten the new crop stocks by 1 million bales to 3.6 million. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 93% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 8/3 and 65% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 53% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index at 338, a drop of7 points. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 241,982 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/7. Shipments slipped to 142,593 RB. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 66 points higher this week, to 55.05 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding 1,931 contracts to their net short position as of August 12 to a net -57,083 contracts.
Market Watch
We start out next week with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will be the release of the Export Sales report. The monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports will be released on Friday afternoon, with the September grain options expiring to round out the week.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn looked pretty ugly on Tuesday. However, after things calmed down bulls regained some ammo. There is a 1.618 Fib expansion at $3.96, which was spiked on the $3.92 low on Tuesday, but ended up holding come Wednesday. That was also near the lower boundary of the declining regression channel near $3.92. The quants bought there, with the upper boundary up at $4.17 near the 40-day moving average at $4.16 ½. The first test on a move back higher was $4, which was achieved on Friday. The next would be closing above the 18-day at $4.07 ¾.CCI says buy, though MACD is still bearish. We need more ammo to try for some upside targets and with 97.2 million (or more) acres and 188+ yield, the rallies will likely be short lived and sold.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Hold! Ag Marketing Report 08/18/2025
This week in the ag markets was pretty interesting. It’s not every day that you get over 1 billion bushels of corn added to the balance sheet, nor is it every day that you get larger than a 2 million acre swing to both corn and beans acreage. In referencing the corn number, Tuesday’s USDA report was one of the more bearish reports in recent memory, just due to the added bushels, and record crop. One would think with that size of adjustment, mostly unexpected mind you, the market would be in shambles. However, looking at the week over week changes, we see that the market has held up this week in relative terms. Additionally, the low that the market put in on Tuesday following the production increase held for the week. Remembering back to one of my personal favorite movies, Braveheart, there’s a part in battle where Mel Gibson’s character is sitting on his horse with his sword in the air, screaming “hold!” to his fellow soldiers. That part is quite analogous to bulls in the corn market this week as someone saw some reason to try and put a floor under things. We’ll have to wait and see how this battle plays out, but the bulls will thus far claim a victory.
Despite the 13+ cent loss on the Tuesday session due to the increased production, September managed a penny gain wk/wk, with December slipping just ¼ cent. The Tuesday Crop Production report from NASS showed a surprising 2.1 million acres of corn added and yield pegged at 188.8 bpa. That raised production over 1 billion bushels from the July WASDE. A few demand changes took the ending stocks figure for new crop to 2.117 bbu, up 457 mbu, as old crop was down 35 mbu to 1.305 bbu. USDA reported a few less flash export sales this week, with 562,658 MT reported for new crop. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 94% silking as of August 10, with 58% in the dough stage. Ratings slipped back 1% this week at 72% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 383. EIA’s ethanol production data showed an increase of 12,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 8 at 1.093 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw another draw, this time of 1.107 million barrels to 22.649 million. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 88,686 MT in the week that ended on August 7, with new crop still seeing elevated sales at 2.04 MMT. Managed money spec traders added back another 2,364 to their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 176,114 contracts.
The wheat complex was the weak spot this week, across all three markets. Chicago SRW futures were down 8 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing an 11 1/4 cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was back down 6 3/4 cents. USDA trimmed US wheat output total by just 2 mbu to 1.927 billion bushels, as winter wheat was raised by 10 mbu and spring wheat was cut by 20 mbu. New crop carryout as trimmed by 21 mbu to 869 mbu. Crop Progress data showed 90% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind normal. The US spring wheat crop was 16% harvested, with ratings back up 1% to 49% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 331, down 1 on the week. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 722,846 MT, which was the second largest this marketing year. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 11.03 MMT, 46% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 43% average pace. Chicago wheat specs adding another 8,526 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 89,295 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 6,508 contracts their net short position to 50,555 contracts by August 12.
Soybeans were in rally mode all week with exception to Thursday, as September was up 54 ½ cents and November rallying 55 cents. The product values were higher, with September meal $6.80/ton higher and September bean oil back up 47 points this week. The monthly Crop Production update added a few rounds of ammo to the bulls belt, with acreage cut by 2.5 million acres and yield up to 53.6 bpa. Production was trimmed by 43 mbu, as the ending stock for old and new crop were down 20 mbu to 330 and 290, respectively. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 91% of the US soybean crop blooming by 8/10 and 71% setting pods. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point to 68% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 374. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to a MY low of 377,610 MT in net reductions for the week of August 8. New crop business was back up in that week to a MY high of 1.133 MMT. NOPA data showed a record 195.7 mbu of soybeans crushed among members in July. Soybean Oil stocks were tallied at 1.378 billion lbs, 14.68% below last year. CFTC data indicated managed money cutting back 30,660 contracts from their net short by August 12, to 35,270 contracts.
Live cattle futures managed to pull out a $3.70 gain this week, despite back and forth trade all week long. Cash trade was steady this week at $235 in the South and $243-245 in the North. Feeders were up $6.75 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index were up another $8.54 week/week to $345.75. Wholesale boxed beef continued the surge into the Labor Day run. Choice was up $21.73 (5.73%) this week to $400.57, surpassing $400 for the first time on record excluding the Covid run. Select was $15.67 (4.4%) higher to $370.76. Weekly beef production was down 1.1% from last week and 11.1% below the same week last year at 457.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.8% lower on a 6.6% decline in slaughter. USDA Export Sales data showed a total of just 4,282 MT of beef sold in the week ending on August 7, a calendar year low. Actual shipments were a 4-week low at 11,358 MT. Managed money cut back 752 contracts to their net long position as of 8/12, taking it to 124,813 contracts as of Tuesday. Spec funds trimmed their net long by 3,542 contracts from their previous record net long to 33,537 contracts by August 12.
Hogs did ease back into some weakness this week as October was down 57 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was 27 cents lower this week at $109.83 as of August 13. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped back just $1.01 this week to $116.40/cwt. The ham and picnic were the only primals reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 2.5% from last week but still 3.7% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2.2% on a 2.4% drop in slaughter. Pork export sales totaled 21,202 MT in the week ending on August 7, which was back down from last week. Shipments were a 3-week low at 26,989 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding back 1,446 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 110,732 contracts.
Cotton posted early gains this week but gave some back in the last half, as December was up just 94 points on the week. USDA showed a total of 840,000 planted acres and 1.3 million harvested acres cut from cotton on Tuesday, with yield up 53 lbs to 862 lbs/ac. Production was still slashed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales. Mixed with a 100,000 bale cut to old crop stocks to 4 million bales, that helped to tighten the new crop stocks by 1 million bales to 3.6 million. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 93% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 8/3 and 65% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 53% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index at 338, a drop of7 points. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 241,982 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/7. Shipments slipped to 142,593 RB. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 66 points higher this week, to 55.05 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding 1,931 contracts to their net short position as of August 12 to a net -57,083 contracts.
Market Watch
We start out next week with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will be the release of the Export Sales report. The monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports will be released on Friday afternoon, with the September grain options expiring to round out the week.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn looked pretty ugly on Tuesday. However, after things calmed down bulls regained some ammo. There is a 1.618 Fib expansion at $3.96, which was spiked on the $3.92 low on Tuesday, but ended up holding come Wednesday. That was also near the lower boundary of the declining regression channel near $3.92. The quants bought there, with the upper boundary up at $4.17 near the 40-day moving average at $4.16 ½. The first test on a move back higher was $4, which was achieved on Friday. The next would be closing above the 18-day at $4.07 ¾.CCI says buy, though MACD is still bearish. We need more ammo to try for some upside targets and with 97.2 million (or more) acres and 188+ yield, the rallies will likely be short lived and sold.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.