Grains Report 08/18/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week despite another week of solid export sales reported by USDA. USDA increased production estimates for Winter Wheat on Tuesday. Spring Wheat production was lower, but the big mover was the Winter Wheat production estimates. Ideas of good harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 498, 492, and 486 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 550,490
: Positions :
: 80,269 180,665 168,607 129,038 87,394 129,796 74,357 507,708 511,022: 42,782 39,468
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: -1,051) :
: 1,596 11,093 -3,450 3,251 -4,796 -3,573 -1,890 -2,175 957: 1,124 -2,008
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.6 32.8 30.6 23.4 15.9 23.6 13.5 92.2 92.8: 7.8 7.2
: Total Traders: 420 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 115 137 102 94 47 33 334 322:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 297,334
: Positions :
: 30,943 76,964 68,611 83,269 96,579 91,156 31,214 273,979 273,368: 23,355 23,966
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: -13,346) :
: 1,880 -3,253 -13,948 446 7,870 -3,283 -4,207 -14,905 -13,538: 1,559 191
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 25.9 23.1 28.0 32.5 30.7 10.5 92.1 91.9: 7.9 8.1
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 59 67 80 77 36 19 208 193:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 68,702 :
: Positions :
: 39,305 21,134 3,577 811 391 6,738 30,196 3,930 3,052 854 1,531 :
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 :
: 641 -800 -695 -31 -241 563 1,318 177 263 -580 76 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.2 30.8 5.2 1.2 0.6 9.8 44.0 5.7 4.4 1.2 2.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 106 :
: 49 33 6 . . 10 20 11 9 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments Rice was a little lower last week after rallying sharply earlier in the week in response to the USDA estimates. Chart trends are mixed on the charts. USDA estimated All Rice production at 208,464 million cwt, from 222.133 million last year. Long Grain production was estimated at 154.468 million cwt, from 172,029 million last year. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1261, 1243, and 1237 September and resistance is at 1298, 1319, and 1333 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,156 :
: Positions :
: 6,826 1,621 214 142 0 248 6,756 5 1,656 547 2,007 :
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 :
: 67 146 0 -12 0 -95 -282 -55 -484 -844 9 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.9 12.3 1.6 1.1 0.0 1.9 51.4 0.0 12.6 4.2 15.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 :
: 23 13 . . 0 . 19 . 18 7 10 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged last week after USDA reported another week of strong export sales and also big production estimates. USDA estimated production at 16.74 billion bushels with a yield estimate of 188.8 bu/acre. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. Temperatures should average near normal this week and it should be mostly dry. However, flooding rains were reported in Wisconsin over the weekend and yields could be hurt in southern and eastern parts of the state. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were little changed. We made our annual crop tour of central Illinois over the weekend and found good but not great crops. The tour yield average Was about 198 bu/acre, the second lowest yield calculation in the past 10 years. The ears were small and there were spotty pollination problems and quite a bit of tip back. It looks like the hot summer nights have hurt yield potential and that crop yields of 188 nationally are probably way too high.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 124,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 363, 360, and 357 September, and resistance is at 382, 389, and 396 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 326, 321, and 315 September, and resistance is at 357, 362, and 370 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,115,219
: Positions :
: 131,959 389,815 684,309 670,119 630,026 441,816 179,771 1,928,203 1,883,921: 187,015 231,298
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: 10,082) :
: 5,265 15,289 -20,781 33,749 35,410 -11,193 -6,666 7,040 23,252: 3,042 -13,170
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.2 18.4 32.4 31.7 29.8 20.9 8.5 91.2 89.1: 8.8 10.9
: Total Traders: 824 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 167 215 381 354 52 30 696 659:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher last week. USDA estimates released on Tuesday showed US Soybeans production at 4.292 billion bushels with a yield of 53.6 bu/acre. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with warm and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Wisconsin got flooding rais over the weekend but just a few light showers were reported in northern Illinois. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1004, 995, and 983 September, and resistance is at 1029, 1037, and 1050 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 277.00, 271.00, and 267.00 September, and resistance is at 291.00, 294.00, and 297.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5160, 5030, and 4940 September, with resistance at 5390, 5490, and 5590 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,107,672
: Positions :
: 63,799 144,675 345,874 418,837 478,274 223,533 66,639 1,052,043 1,035,463: 55,629 72,209
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: 8,749) :
: 1,672 -33,682 15,878 -5,620 22,938 -2,965 5,838 8,964 10,972: -215 -2,224
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.8 13.1 31.2 37.8 43.2 20.2 6.0 95.0 93.5: 5.0 6.5
: Total Traders: 618 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 156 179 230 224 51 28 522 491:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 687,786
: Positions :
: 76,184 72,865 196,411 214,607 353,569 159,696 35,459 646,897 658,304: 40,888 29,482
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: -170) :
: -5,596 1,316 -996 8,625 -2,210 -3,073 783 -1,039 -1,106: 869 936
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 10.6 28.6 31.2 51.4 23.2 5.2 94.1 95.7: 5.9 4.3
: Total Traders: 359 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 70 112 114 113 45 25 305 274:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 758,571
: Positions :
: 66,470 152,841 206,100 300,801 323,048 128,399 40,893 701,769 722,881: 56,801 35,689
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,237) :
: -1,848 -27,805 10,692 -623 23,289 -1,747 125 6,474 6,300: -237 -63
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 20.1 27.2 39.7 42.6 16.9 5.4 92.5 95.3: 7.5 4.7
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 89 101 134 118 39 21 311 279:
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PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on stronger than expected export dqta for the firt half of the month. Demand for export has been strong to start the month. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was lower last week as China had imposed a punishing tariff on Canola imports from Canada in retaliation for Canadian tariff imposed on Chinese goods. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 635.00, 623.00, and 602.00 November, with resistance at 669.00, 683.00, and 696.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4410, 4340, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4530, 4590, and 4650 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 15,281 :
: Positions :
: 10,755 7,531 62 2,950 760 3,036 0 60 608 3,950 0 :
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 :
: 420 800 0 0 0 580 0 -120 -220 -40 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.4 49.3 0.4 19.3 5.0 19.9 0.0 0.4 4.0 25.8 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 8 8 . 6 . . 0 . . 8 0 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 12, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 240,688 :
: Positions :
: 96,944 135,642 4,841 11,999 1,094 78,424 23,692 26,890 14,746 21,670 16,407 :
: Changes from: August 5, 2025 :
: 24,260 -3,490 325 -1,782 11 -27,876 2,058 2,906 -157 -495 374 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 40.3 56.4 2.0 5.0 0.5 32.6 9.8 11.2 6.1 9.0 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 370 :
: 52 103 5 . 6 62 32 28 47 97 58 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 1107.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1115.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1117.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1092.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 1112.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1120.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1122.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1097.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 1090.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 1007.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,470.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 463.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2205)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,091 lots, or 5.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 4,127 4,151 4,125 4,129 4,129 4,137 8 17,379 16,465
Nov-25 4,050 4,077 4,041 4,044 4,044 4,056 12 88,257 175,555
Jan-26 4,057 4,074 4,041 4,043 4,047 4,055 8 27,379 79,415
Mar-26 4,052 4,069 4,040 4,041 4,045 4,052 7 3,787 27,187
May-26 4,095 4,110 4,084 4,086 4,089 4,096 7 1,744 4,282
Jul-26 4,097 4,106 4,079 4,081 4,085 4,090 5 2,545 4,047
Corn
Turnover: 818,052 lots, or 18.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 2,266 2,275 2,262 2,263 2,274 2,267 -7 179,562 316,567
Nov-25 2,190 2,195 2,172 2,177 2,192 2,183 -9 463,886 896,262
Jan-26 2,189 2,190 2,173 2,175 2,187 2,181 -6 131,085 359,830
Mar-26 2,205 2,209 2,193 2,196 2,205 2,201 -4 22,503 128,683
May-26 2,256 2,259 2,250 2,251 2,258 2,254 -4 16,488 56,882
Jul-26 2,271 2,275 2,269 2,270 2,276 2,271 -5 4,528 13,097
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,879,593 lots, or 58.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 3,090 3,110 3,068 3,100 3,082 3,093 11 363,469 462,582
Nov-25 3,120 3,142 3,100 3,131 3,113 3,123 10 110,364 603,346
Dec-25 3,165 3,189 3,147 3,172 3,161 3,171 10 21,107 135,972
Jan-26 3,145 3,167 3,123 3,155 3,137 3,147 10 1,057,425 2,063,811
Mar-26 3,028 3,058 3,016 3,052 3,019 3,042 23 81,962 385,875
May-26 2,828 2,850 2,821 2,847 2,823 2,837 14 216,276 847,433
Jul-26 2,796 2,819 2,794 2,819 2,792 2,805 13 15,523 112,944
Aug-26 2,919 2,942 2,911 2,940 2,919 2,926 7 13,467 15,928
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,107,652 lots, or 10.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 9,442 9,618 9,440 9,534 9,330 9,552 222 232,837 148,929
Oct-25 9,426 9,640 9,426 9,582 9,344 9,568 224 11,083 7,746
Nov-25 9,496 9,652 9,490 9,570 9,392 9,586 194 5,186 8,048
Dec-25 9,508 9,654 9,496 9,576 9,390 9,586 196 1,178 781
Jan-26 9,520 9,672 9,520 9,584 9,406 9,606 200 832,994 504,979
Feb-26 9,468 9,604 9,468 9,544 9,374 9,552 178 89 1,050
Mar-26 9,404 9,524 9,404 9,468 9,304 9,470 166 69 311
Apr-26 9,356 9,426 9,356 9,388 9,206 9,380 174 19 79
May-26 9,208 9,348 9,208 9,284 9,130 9,292 162 24,145 47,503
Jun-26 9,126 9,220 9,126 9,186 9,010 9,172 162 25 65
Jul-26 9,090 9,098 9,036 9,054 8,898 9,070 172 26 100
Aug-26 8,962 8,962 8,962 8,962 8,928 8,962 34 1 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 631,670 lots, or 53.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 8,680 8,680 8,544 8,548 8,538 8,596 58 146,569 191,498
Nov-25 8,588 8,640 8,552 8,552 8,544 8,600 56 4,475 15,030
Dec-25 8,590 8,636 8,554 8,554 8,546 8,600 54 1,034 5,276
Jan-26 8,558 8,602 8,512 8,516 8,512 8,562 50 421,987 734,768
Mar-26 8,438 8,466 8,426 8,430 8,390 8,448 58 292 2,075
May-26 8,130 8,162 8,106 8,134 8,072 8,138 66 57,129 135,831
Jul-26 8,080 8,116 8,080 8,090 8,034 8,104 70 163 335
Aug-26 8,150 8,162 8,108 8,154 8,096 8,140 44 21 11
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322