The PPI Blues. Manic Metals Report 08/15/2025

Precious metals traders got hit yesterday with a bad case of the Producer Price Index blues. Just as it appeared that precious metals were getting ready to make a new leg higher, and the expectation of an interest rate cut seemed to be in the bag. They got slammed after a surprise, almost unbelievable increase in the monthly PPI report. The PPI report didn’t just edge past the forecasts of 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annual increases—it lapped them and waved as it went by. Noe because of these traders are reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts, though a September cut and another in 2025 are still anticipated.
Yet the Producer Price Index threw a wrench—no, an entire toolbox—into the precious metals rally. Wall Street’s been humming that interest-rate-cut tune for weeks, ready to dance, and then—bam!—in comes the PPI with numbers with folks immediate blaming tariffs and wishful thinking.
The U.S. Producer Price Index shot up 0.9% in July and a hefty 3.3% year-over-year. That raised fears that higher producer costs could trickle down to consumers, fanning those inflation flames and raising fears that the Fed might not be in a hurry to cut rates.
And while you can’t dismiss the fact that at some point some of this could be passed on to consumers we’ve already seen the consumer prices are very tepid at the same time the producer price index has the ability to be very volatile and it might not reflect some of the drops that we’ve seen in prices especially in the copper market that didn’t show up in these numbers.
Besides the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, specifically the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to better reflect underlying inflation trends.
Still gold is bouncing back as breaks are being bought. Amid recent financial turbulence, gold has emerged as a formidable competitor to the S&P 500, posting performance figures that have captured the attention of both bullish and bearish investors alike.
In a year that defied expectations, 2024 saw gold surge by an impressive 27%, edging past the S&P 500’s solid 25% total return with dividends included. This kind of parallel performance between gold and equities is uncommon, highlighting a shift from their usual oppositional movements and underscoring the unique dynamics at play in the financial markets.
Entering 2025, gold’s momentum has only intensified. Year-to-date, gold is up an impressive 25.87% to 29%, consistently breaching record highs above $3,500 per ounce. In contrast, the S&P 500 has delivered a comparatively subdued performance, with returns hovering around 6.2%—and, in certain segments, experiencing declines as significant as 15%.
While Wall Street frets over trade spats and record high stock prices, gold just keeps swaggering along the high wire, shrugging off uncertainty No matter which way the winds of doubt blow, gold refuses to flinch driven by historic central bank demand.
In the past seven years, gold has not merely lingered in the background—it has assumed a leading role during periods of heightened market turbulence.
Notably, in 2020, 2022, 2024, and now into 2025, gold has demonstrated remarkable strength. These years have been marked by volatility, uncertainty, and a persistent struggle for market equilibrium. From the unprecedented disruptions of the pandemic era to the Biden   surge in inflation, with crazy spending ,  gold has consistently emerged as a dependable safeguard.
If you look at gold’s cumulative over the last 20 years the return stands at 616% (a 9.8% compound annual growth rate), surpassing the S&P 500’s 421% (9.2% CAGR). Such data underscores gold’s role as a reliable store of value during crisis periods, including the 2008 financial meltdown and the dot-com crash.
Still the S&P 500 has been the dominant force since 1971—transforming a $100 investment into $36,104 compared to gold’s $7,023—gold’s recent rues show it is trying to catch up and gain new ground.
Silver is still a wagered as it seems that $40 in the front end of the silver curve seems elusive the back months of course did get above $40 which gives us hope but obviously the rate cuts don’t happen in September so it’s going to have a very rough go.
Copper is still reeling after president trump did the big switcheroo on copper tariffs the market is trying to edge up and copper will play close attention to the peace talks between president trump and Vladimir Putin in Russia if it appears that president trump is going to secure a ceasefire it may put downward pressure on a copper initially. But mainly platinum and Palladium would be the markets that you’d want to watch as Russia is one of the biggest producers of Palladium and platinum.
The numbers are impossible to ignore: In 2023, Russia’s platinum output hit 23,000 kilograms (23 metric tons), and palladium surged to 92,000 kilograms (92 metric tons). But the clock is ticking—preliminary estimates for 2024 show a worrying decline. Platinum production could drop to just 20,600 kilograms (about 20.6 metric tons or 660.64 thousand ounces), while palladium might slide to 75,000 kilograms (75 metric tons), with some sources indicating it could be as low as 88,000 kilograms.
Russia remains the world’s second-largest platinum producer and the number one source of palladium. But this dominant position is at risk. Nearly all production comes from the Norilsk region and hinges on the output of giants like Norilsk Nickel. Any disruption—political or economic—could send shockwaves through the global supply chain. And remember, 2024’s figures are still in flux, with sources already reporting inconsistent data. The world is watching these numbers closely—any sudden change could have immediate and dramatic impacts on global markets.
And that is why President Trump’s peace talks with the possibilities of major sanctions on Russia could have a dramatic impact the prices.
Make sure you keep in touch with me today as this is going to be a breaking story and if you want the latest updates stay tuned to the Fox Business Network. You can also get signed up for my daily reports and updates by calling me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.