Grains Report 08/15/2025

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 18, 2025 196 Aug 14, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug 18, 2025 7 Aug 14, 2025
SOYBEAN August Aug 18, 2025 3 Aug 14, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower despite another week of solid export sales reported b USDA. USDA increased production estimates for Winter Wheat on Tueeday. Spring Wheat production was lower, but the big mover was the Winter Wheat production estimates. Ideas of good harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 498, 492, and 486 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice was a little higher in consolidation trading. Chart trends are still up on the daily charts. USDA estimated All Rice production at 208,464 million cwt, from 222.133 million last year. Long Grain production was estimated at 154.468 million cwt, from 172,029 million last year. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1261, 1243, and 1237 September and resistance is at 1298, 1319, and 1333 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near 8nchanged after USDA reported another week of strong export sales. USDA estimated production at 16.74 billion bushels with a yield estimat4e of 188.8 bu/acre. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. Temperatures should average near normal this week and it should be mostly dry. However, flooding rains were reported in Wisconsin over the weekend and yields could be hurt in southern and eastern parts of the state. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were a little higher. We made our annual crop tour of central Illinois over the weekend and found good but not great crops. The tour yield average Was about 198 bu/acre, the second lowest yield calculation in the past 10 years. The ears were small and there were spotty pollination problems and quite a bit of tip back. It looks like the hot summer nights have hurt yield potential and that crop yields of 188 nationally are probably way too high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 363, 360, and 357 September, and resistance is at 382, 389, and 396 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 326, 321, and 315 September, and resistance is at 357, 362, and 370 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday. USDA estimates released on Tuesday showed US Soybeans production at 4.292 billion bushels with a yield of 53.6 bu/acre. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with warm and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Wisconsin got flooding rais over the weekend but just a few light showers were reported in northern Illinois. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Trade estimates for the USDA crop reports next week are often at 55 bu/acre or a little higher, but analysts polled by the newswires estimated yields closer to 53 bu/acre.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1004, 995, and 983 September, and resistance is at 1029, 1037, and 1050 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 277.00, 271.00, and 267.00 September, and resistance is at 291.00, 294.00, and 297.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5160, 5030, and 4940 September, with resistance at 5390, 5490, and 5590 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on stronger than expected export dqta for the firt half of the month. Demand for export has been strong to start the month. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was lower along with Chicago and as China had imposed a punishing tariff on Canola imports from Canada in retaliation for Canadian tariff imposed on Chinese goods. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 635.00, 623.00, and 602.00 November, with resistance at 669.00, 683.00, and 696.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4470, 4530, and 4590 October.

DJ Malaysia Aug. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Rose 21% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Amanda Lee
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Aug. 1-15 period are estimated up 21% on month at 696,425 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Aug. 1-15 Jul. 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 134,245 87,042
RBD Palm Oil 57,801 40,580
RBD Palm Stearin 80,315 49,202
Crude Palm Oil 139,133 159,392
Total* 696,425 574,121
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1092.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1095.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1100.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1102.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1082.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1097.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1100.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1105.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1107.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1087.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1072.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 990.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,400.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 459.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.211)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322