Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Exports Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report showed that the average 30-Year mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.67%, which was the lowest weekly rate since early April and the 2nd lowest since last October. However, the average mortgage rate was above a year ago for the 4th consecutive month. Mortgage demand has inched higher in recent weeks as rates have relaxed but is still fer below the 2019-2021 levels and closer to the 1990’s lows. (Hello, Jerome Powell anybody home?) The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows that home affordability declined in June after falling in May. The Home Affordability Index measures the affordability of the median home price for the median family income. The June figure of 94.4 was an 11-month low and signaled that the median home price was unaffordable to the median family. Mortgage rates above 5% have kept inventories tight and driven home prices to record highs. The real estate industrial, and all other industries and consumers are hopeful for a September rate cut. However, today’s hot CPI data was not conducive for a needed rate cut.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results and Market Impact
The largest private crop tour in the United States kicks off Monday. The tour, organized by agricultural newsletter Pro Farmer, deploys teams of volunteer scouts to survey hundreds of corn and soybean fields across a seven-state area of the Midwest fields across surveyed include: OH, IN, IL, MN, SD, and NE. Results of the tour-surveyed state and forecasted national yields for corn and soybeans will be released next Thursday. The traditional estimating procedure for corn has been counting harvestable ears in two 30’ long rows. Length and girth of ears are checked by selecting three specific corn ears from each row – the 5th , 6th, and 11th ear. Ears ar taken irrespective of size, and length (of grainbare cobs and aborted kernels are not counted) and girth measured for each ear, along with kernel counts. Yield is derived by multiplying the average ear population by the average number of kernel rows, and dividing by row width.The increase in US seeded corn area to 97.3 Mil acres in the final count, according to ARC FSA analysis. The seeding gains will add 350-400 million bu. To supply, depending on the final US corn yield. ARC sees 2025/26 US corn stocks at 2,550-2,750 Mil Bu by the final count which, as the harvest saturates the cash pipeline, could drop December futures to $3.50-$3.70. Cash corn basis bids are expected to come under considerable pressure amid tightening storage availability. Unlike recent years, ARC sees corn setting its annual low in between mid-September and October. December rallies will find resistance above $3.99. CBOT wheat futures scored new contract lows and bounced following the gains of summer row crop futures. Corn’s ability to bounced reduced managed money with September Chicago futures holding psychological support at $5.00. The $4/MT rally in Russian FOB values to $241/MT also offered support. EU wheat values have been hammered since early July due to oversupply. However, cash wheat values are trading well below corn which should allow large amounts of the off quality EU wheat harvest to be fed to livestock. Wheat will again be sought – after European feed grain. A further blow to corn prices.
Have A Great Trading Day!
I hope you enjoyed the content of the report, you can contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Corn Oversupply Weighs on Prices as Pro Farmer Crop Tour Looms. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/14/2025
We kickoff the day with Exports Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report showed that the average 30-Year mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.67%, which was the lowest weekly rate since early April and the 2nd lowest since last October. However, the average mortgage rate was above a year ago for the 4th consecutive month. Mortgage demand has inched higher in recent weeks as rates have relaxed but is still fer below the 2019-2021 levels and closer to the 1990’s lows. (Hello, Jerome Powell anybody home?) The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows that home affordability declined in June after falling in May. The Home Affordability Index measures the affordability of the median home price for the median family income. The June figure of 94.4 was an 11-month low and signaled that the median home price was unaffordable to the median family. Mortgage rates above 5% have kept inventories tight and driven home prices to record highs. The real estate industrial, and all other industries and consumers are hopeful for a September rate cut. However, today’s hot CPI data was not conducive for a needed rate cut.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results and Market Impact
The largest private crop tour in the United States kicks off Monday. The tour, organized by agricultural newsletter Pro Farmer, deploys teams of volunteer scouts to survey hundreds of corn and soybean fields across a seven-state area of the Midwest fields across surveyed include: OH, IN, IL, MN, SD, and NE. Results of the tour-surveyed state and forecasted national yields for corn and soybeans will be released next Thursday. The traditional estimating procedure for corn has been counting harvestable ears in two 30’ long rows. Length and girth of ears are checked by selecting three specific corn ears from each row – the 5th , 6th, and 11th ear. Ears ar taken irrespective of size, and length (of grainbare cobs and aborted kernels are not counted) and girth measured for each ear, along with kernel counts. Yield is derived by multiplying the average ear population by the average number of kernel rows, and dividing by row width.The increase in US seeded corn area to 97.3 Mil acres in the final count, according to ARC FSA analysis. The seeding gains will add 350-400 million bu. To supply, depending on the final US corn yield. ARC sees 2025/26 US corn stocks at 2,550-2,750 Mil Bu by the final count which, as the harvest saturates the cash pipeline, could drop December futures to $3.50-$3.70. Cash corn basis bids are expected to come under considerable pressure amid tightening storage availability. Unlike recent years, ARC sees corn setting its annual low in between mid-September and October. December rallies will find resistance above $3.99. CBOT wheat futures scored new contract lows and bounced following the gains of summer row crop futures. Corn’s ability to bounced reduced managed money with September Chicago futures holding psychological support at $5.00. The $4/MT rally in Russian FOB values to $241/MT also offered support. EU wheat values have been hammered since early July due to oversupply. However, cash wheat values are trading well below corn which should allow large amounts of the off quality EU wheat harvest to be fed to livestock. Wheat will again be sought – after European feed grain. A further blow to corn prices.
Have A Great Trading Day!
I hope you enjoyed the content of the report, you can contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374