Grains Report 08/13/2025

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts
in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2025 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Production 16,742.0 15,991 15,705-16,323 15,705
Soybean Production 4,292.0 4,371 4,290-4,439 4,335
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Yield 188.8 184.3 181.0-188.1 181.0
Soybean Yield 53.6 53.0 52.0-53.7 52.5
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2024-25
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,305.0 1,318 1,290-1,340 1,340
Soybeans 330.0 344 305- 355 350
Wheat 851.0 850 845- 851 851
2025-26
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,117.0 1,916 1,660-2,333 1,660
Soybeans 290.0 359 310- 416 310
Wheat 869.0 885 860- 920 890
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 283.1 285.6 282.6-290.0 284.2
Soybeans 125.2 125.0 124.1-126.7 125.1
Wheat 262.7 276.1 263.0-364.0 263.6
2025-26
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 282.5 279.1 272.6-283.9 272.1
Soybeans 124.9 127.9 126.5-129.0 126.1
Wheat 260.1 261.8 260.1-263.5 261.5
***
2025-26 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
All Wheat 1,927 1,925 1,879-1,950 1,929
Winter Wheat 1,355 1,349 1,328-1,374 1,345
Hard Red Winter 769 758 748-774 755
Soft Red Winter 339 338 336-345 337
White Winter 247 252 243-260 254
Other Spring 485 497 478-515 504
Durum 87 80 74-90 80

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 14, 2025 118 Aug 12, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug 14, 2025 3 Aug 12, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in response to increased USDA production estimates for Winter Wheat. Spring Wheat production was lower, but the big mover was the Winter Wheat production estimates. Ideas of good harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good. The weekly export sales report showed sales within trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 503, 498, and 492 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice was higher yesterday and the market is completing a second low on the weekly charts. Chart trends are up on the daily charts. USDA estimated All Rice production at 208,464 million cwt, from 222.133 million last year. Long Grain production was estimated at 154.468 million cwt, from 172,029 million last year. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1261, 1243, and 1237 September and resistance is at 1298, 1319, and 1333 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was sharply lower in response to the USDA crop production estimates. USDA estimated production at 16.74 billion bushels with a yield estimat4e of 188.8 bu/acre. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. Temperatures should average near normal this week and it should be mostly dry. However, flooding rains were reported in Wisconsin over the weekend and yields could be hurt in southern and eastern parts of the state. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher. We made our annual crop tour of central Illinois over the weekend and found good but not great crops. The tour yield average Was about 198 bu/acre, the second lowest yield calculation in the past 10 years. The ears were small and there were spotty pollination problems and quite a bit of tip back. It looks like the hot summer nights have hurt yield potential and that crop yields of 188 nationally are probably way too high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 363, 360, and 357 September, and resistance is at 382, 389, and 396 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 326, 321, and 315 September, and resistance is at 357, 362, and 370 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in response to the USDA estimates that showed US Soybeans production at 4.292 billion bushels with a yield of 53.6 bu/acre. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with warm and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Wisconsin got flooding rais over the weekend but just a few light showers were reported in northern Illinois. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Trade estimates for the USDA crop reports next week are often at 55 bu/acre or a little higher, but analysts polled by the newswires estimated yields closer to 53 bu/acre.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 974, 956, and 944 September, and resistance is at 1015, 1027, and 1037 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 267.00, 263.00, and 260.00 September, and resistance is at 287.00, 291.00, and 294.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5160, 5030, and 4940 September, with resistance at 5380, 5490, and 5590 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were a little higher on reports from private sources of good demand so far this month and in sympathy with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher along with Chicago and for the same reasons. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 663.00, 660.00, and 654.00 November, with resistance at 695.00, 706.00, and 713.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4410, 4470, and 4530 October.

DJ Malaysia’s July Palm Oil Exports 1.31M Tons; Up 3.8%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 3.8% on month at 1.31 million metric tons in July, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the July crop data and revised numbers for June, issued by MPOB:
July June Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,812,417 1,692,370 Up 7.09%
Palm Oil Exports 1,309,059 1,260,930 Up 3.82%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 90,028 86,814 Up 3.7%
Palm Oil Imports 61,039 70,015 Dn 12.82%
Closing Stocks 2,113,278 2,031,560 Up 4.02%
Crude Palm Oil 1,020,780 1,041,781 Dn 2.02%
Processed Palm Oil 1,092,498 989,779 Up 10.38%

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1085.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1090.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1095.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1100.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1090.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1095.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1100.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1105.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1062.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 967.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,390.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 450.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2055)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322