Grains Report 08/12/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. 2025 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2024
Corn Production 15,991 15,705-16,323 15,705 14,867
Soybean Production 4,371 4,290-4,439 4,335 4,366
Corn Yield 184.3 181.0-188.1 181.0 179.3
Soybean Yield 53.0 52.0-53.7 52.5 50.7
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,318 1,290-1,340 1,340
Soybeans 344 305-355 350
Wheat 850 845-851 851
2025-26
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,916 1,660-2,333 1,660
Soybeans 359 310-416 310
Wheat 885 860-920 890
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA July
Corn 285.6 282.6-290.0 284.2
Soybeans 125.0 124.1-126.7 125.1
Wheat 276.1 263.0-364.0 263.6
2025-26
Average Range USDA July
Corn 279.1 272.6-283.9 272.1
Soybeans 127.9 126.5-129.0 126.1
Wheat 261.8 260.1-263.5 261.5
****
2025-26 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA July USDA 2024-25
All Wheat 1,925 1,879-1,950 1,929 1,971
Winter Wheat 1,349 1,328-1,374 1,345 1,349
Hard Red Winter 758 748-774 755 770
Soft Red Winter 338 336-345 337 342
White Winter 252 243-260 254 236
Other Spring 497 478-515 504 542
Durum 80 74-90 80 80

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 11
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 11, 2025 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 07, 2025
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/07/2025 07/31/2025 08/08/2024 TO DATE TO DATE

BARLEY 73 49 0 686 4,285
CORN 1,491,962 1,284,746 986,232 63,127,205 48,943,159
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 96 168
MIXED 0 0 0 122 572
OATS 499 299 0 2,095 148
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 69,780 11,875 59,406 2,072,223 5,684,162
SOYBEANS 518,066 628,110 350,958 48,367,647 43,388,486
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 7,325
WHEAT 365,486 689,730 669,057 4,366,891 4,265,764
Total 2,445,866 2,614,833 2,065,653 117,936,965 102,294,069
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 13, 2025 128 Aug 11, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug 13, 2025 87 Aug 08, 2025

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 93 87 95 94
Cotton Setting Bolls 65 55 72 71
Cotton Bolls Opening 8 5 12 10
Corn Silking 94 88 93 95
Corn Dough 58 42 58 58
Corn Dented 14 6 18 13
Soybeans Blooming 91 85 90 92
Soybeans Setting Pods 71 58 70 72
Sorghum Headed 65 51 72 68
Sorghum Coloring 29 23 31 28
Peanuts Pegging 94 92 95 94
Oats Harvested 55 41 56 59
Rice Headed 85 75 89 80
Rice Harvested 11 6 12 10
Winter Wheat Harvested 90 86 92 91
Spring Wheat Harvested 16 5 16 22
Barley Headed 98 90 100 100
Barley Harvested 16 5 18 24

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 7 11 29 43 10
Cotton Last Week 5 10 30 45 10
Cotton Last Year 9 16 29 39 7

Corn This Week 2 5 21 52 20
Corn Last Week 2 5 20 53 20
Corn Last Year 3 7 23 51 16

Soybeans This Week 2 5 25 53 15
Soybeans Last Week 2 5 24 55 15
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 24 55 13

Rice This Week 0 3 21 54 22
Rice Last Week 0 2 20 55 23
Rice Last Year 1 3 17 61 18

Sorghum This Week 2 7 25 47 18
Sorghum Last Week 2 6 26 48 18
Sorghum Last Year 6 10 33 43 8

Peanuts This Week 0 3 23 61 thirteen
Peanuts Last Week 0 3 24 62 11
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 26 60 8

Oats This Week 8 10 24 49 9
Oats Last Week 8 10 24 49 9
Oats Last Year 6 5 22 56 11

Spring Wheat This Week 5 13 33 44 5
Spring Wheat Last Week 4 13 35 43 5
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 23 59 13

Barley This Week 3 14 40 39 2
Barley Last Week 2 14 42 39 3
Barley Last Year 0 6 25 62 7

Pastures and Ranges This Week 10 20 31 29 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 10 16 30 33 11
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 12 20 33 28 7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed after an early rally attempt went nowhere. Ideas of good harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good. The weekly export sales report showed sales within trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 503, 498, and 492 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice was higher yesterday and the market is completing a second low on the weekly charts. Chart trends are up on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast. The weekly export sales report showed just average demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1275, 1243, and 1237 September and resistance is at 1298, 1319, and 1333 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher in sympathy with the rally in Soybeans. USDA will release its Latest production and WASDE reports later today. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. Temperatures should average near normal this week after one last hot day today and it should be mostly dry. However, flooding rains were reported in Wisconsin over the weekend and yields could be hurt in southern and eastern parts of the state. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Yield estimates near or above 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard, but the surveys of analysts conducted by the wire services pointed to yields near 183 bushels per acre. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were sharply lower on the weekly charts. We made our annual crop tour of central Illinois over the weekend and found good but not great crops. The tour yield average Was about 198 bu/acre, the second lowest yield calculation in the past 10 years. The ears were small and there were spotty pollination problems and quite a bit of tip back. It looks like the hot summer nights have hurt yield potential and that crop yields of 186 nationally are probably way too high.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 315,488 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 375, 372, and 369 September, and resistance is at 389, 396, and 403 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 326, 321, and 315 September, and resistance is at 357, 362, and 370 September.

\SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in response to news that President Trump had posted on social media that China was worried about Soybeans supply and that the US was willing and able to sell. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with warm and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Wisconsin got flooding rais over the weekend but just a few light showers were reported in northern Illinois. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Trade estimates for the USDA crop reports next week are often at 55 bu/acre or a little higher, but analysts polled by the newswires estimated yields closer to 53 bu/acre.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 975, 956, and 944 September, and resistance is at 995, 1004, and 1011 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 267.00, 263.00, and 260.00 September, and resistance is at 285.00, 291.00, and 294.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5160, 5030, and 4940 September, with resistance at 5380, 5490, and 5590 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were a little higher on reports from private sources of good demand so far this month. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher along with Chicago and for the same reasons. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 663.00, 660.00, and 654.00 November, with resistance at 695.00, 706.00, and 713.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4410, 4470, and 4530 October.

DJ Malaysia’s July Palm Oil Exports 1.31M Tons; Up 3.8%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 3.8% on month at 1.31 million metric tons in July, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the July crop data and revised numbers for June, issued by MPOB:
July June Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,812,417 1,692,370 Up 7.09%
Palm Oil Exports 1,309,059 1,260,930 Up 3.82%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 90,028 86,814 Up 3.7%
Palm Oil Imports 61,039 70,015 Dn 12.82%
Closing Stocks 2,113,278 2,031,560 Up 4.02%
Crude Palm Oil 1,020,780 1,041,781 Dn 2.02%
Processed Palm Oil 1,092,498 989,779 Up 10.38%

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1077.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1080.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1082.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1085.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1065.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1082.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1085.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1087.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1090.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1070.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1065.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 962.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,380.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 454.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.229)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322