Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders report confirmed a week of selling in the ag markets. Funds were outright sellers in soybeans, meal, and wheat on all three exchanges., and liquidated length in soybean oil and live cattle futures. Funds covered a small amount of their net short corn and added length in the lean hogs and feeder cattle futures. Of the 10 markets tracked in the chart, funds were net sellers of 63,580 contracts, taking the combined net short position to 206,938 contracts the most since September 2024.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Soaking Rain Hit IA, WI & IL; Eastern Midwest Trends Wetter:
The Central US forecast features heavier projected rainfall in IA, Wi, and western IL and has added precipitation of .50-1.25” to IN, OH and parts of KY over the next 7 days. Localized flooding happened in eastern IA and WI. Where totals upward of 4-7” are forecast, but otherwise the outlook is viewed as positive to yield. Ag Resources (ARC) notes dryness has been in place across eastern IA & WI since August 1st, and ao the return of rainfall is welcomed. Shower activity began across the NW Corn Belt early Satyrday. NOAA’sa boosts projected two-week soil moisture forecast un all but the Southeast and Ohio despite ongoing warmth. Importantly, 10-day temp forecast have turned cooler with max temps in the E Plains & principal Midwest capped at 85-88 degrees.
2025 Major Exporter Corn Production
The World corn exporters corn balance sheet is set to loosen significantly in 2025-26! Supply dislocation a year ago – drought in Ukraine, smaller than expected crop sizes in the US and Brazil – was the catalyst for 5.00+ CBOT futures. US supplies were forced to fill gaps left by others in the global trade matrix. Last years supply dislocation transitions to this years’ build in stocks. ARC’s longer teem message is that it will take lower prices for longer to clear excess inventories. Additionally, glaring climate threats are absent from Argentina & Brazil. ARC forecast combined major exporter corn production in calendar year 2025 at 625 MMT’s up 13 MMT’s (530 Mil Bu) year-over-year. This could grow further depending on the size of the US corn harvest. A sizable majority of the gain occurs in the US amid near record planted area and record yields. Importantly, ARC projects combined Brazil and Ukrainian production to be up 19 MMT’s &755 Mil Bu) from last year. Ukraine has near-zero corn availability today, but when new crop Black Sea supplies hit the global market in Oct/Nov, ARC’s concern is that world fob prices relax further amid massive competition for late autumn/winter importer demand. Assuming a US yield of 185+, a Ukrainian corn crop of 30 MMT’s, vs. 17 a year ago and assuming trend yields S America this winter, major exporter corn stocks/use in crop year 25/26 balloons to 11% vs. 78in 24/25 and vs. USDA’s current forecast of 8.2%. This crosses the threshold of oversupply. The correlation between exporter corn stocks/use and the US’s season average cash price and world exporter stocks/use doesn’t correlate strongly with price, but exporter stocks/use of greater than 10% often is associated with a US season average cash price below $4.00/Bu. A marketplace like 2015-2019 looms without weather threats. Spot CNOT corn below $4.009 is explained by US potential and larger South American production. However, ARC reiterates that Dec’26 CBOT corn holds some 40-70 cents of premium should normal/near normal weather occurs in South America, and the risk is that prices languish in a range of $3.40-$4.10 throughout 12-18 months (spot futures). Selling forward carries is imperative to longer term marketing success as corn prices will need to stay lower to enhance US export demand.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovery Falls at Chart Resistance; August WASDE Dominates First Half of Week:
CBOT corn
‘CBOT corns AM recovery faded as fund managers ending reducing their short position risk ahead of the USDA crop report on Tuesday. New crop cash corn bids in the upper Midwest are quoted at $.50-$.60/Bu under December. The physical cash market is preparing for supply abundance come October. Old crop and new crop US supplies combine for a massive 17.5 Bil Bu of corn in October. The cash corn market will feel supply weight into 2026. The average US corn analyst yield guess is 184.3 BPA. ARC notes there’s nowhere to hide extra supply as 25/26 corn exports are projected at 2.675 Bil Bu (near record high)Feed/residual use can rise 50-100 Mil; Bu.
Weekend Rains Boost Crops Without Threatening Yields. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/11/2025
We kickoff the day with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders report confirmed a week of selling in the ag markets. Funds were outright sellers in soybeans, meal, and wheat on all three exchanges., and liquidated length in soybean oil and live cattle futures. Funds covered a small amount of their net short corn and added length in the lean hogs and feeder cattle futures. Of the 10 markets tracked in the chart, funds were net sellers of 63,580 contracts, taking the combined net short position to 206,938 contracts the most since September 2024.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Soaking Rain Hit IA, WI & IL; Eastern Midwest Trends Wetter:
The Central US forecast features heavier projected rainfall in IA, Wi, and western IL and has added precipitation of .50-1.25” to IN, OH and parts of KY over the next 7 days. Localized flooding happened in eastern IA and WI. Where totals upward of 4-7” are forecast, but otherwise the outlook is viewed as positive to yield. Ag Resources (ARC) notes dryness has been in place across eastern IA & WI since August 1st, and ao the return of rainfall is welcomed. Shower activity began across the NW Corn Belt early Satyrday. NOAA’sa boosts projected two-week soil moisture forecast un all but the Southeast and Ohio despite ongoing warmth. Importantly, 10-day temp forecast have turned cooler with max temps in the E Plains & principal Midwest capped at 85-88 degrees.
2025 Major Exporter Corn Production
The World corn exporters corn balance sheet is set to loosen significantly in 2025-26! Supply dislocation a year ago – drought in Ukraine, smaller than expected crop sizes in the US and Brazil – was the catalyst for 5.00+ CBOT futures. US supplies were forced to fill gaps left by others in the global trade matrix. Last years supply dislocation transitions to this years’ build in stocks. ARC’s longer teem message is that it will take lower prices for longer to clear excess inventories. Additionally, glaring climate threats are absent from Argentina & Brazil. ARC forecast combined major exporter corn production in calendar year 2025 at 625 MMT’s up 13 MMT’s (530 Mil Bu) year-over-year. This could grow further depending on the size of the US corn harvest. A sizable majority of the gain occurs in the US amid near record planted area and record yields. Importantly, ARC projects combined Brazil and Ukrainian production to be up 19 MMT’s &755 Mil Bu) from last year. Ukraine has near-zero corn availability today, but when new crop Black Sea supplies hit the global market in Oct/Nov, ARC’s concern is that world fob prices relax further amid massive competition for late autumn/winter importer demand. Assuming a US yield of 185+, a Ukrainian corn crop of 30 MMT’s, vs. 17 a year ago and assuming trend yields S America this winter, major exporter corn stocks/use in crop year 25/26 balloons to 11% vs. 78in 24/25 and vs. USDA’s current forecast of 8.2%. This crosses the threshold of oversupply. The correlation between exporter corn stocks/use and the US’s season average cash price and world exporter stocks/use doesn’t correlate strongly with price, but exporter stocks/use of greater than 10% often is associated with a US season average cash price below $4.00/Bu. A marketplace like 2015-2019 looms without weather threats. Spot CNOT corn below $4.009 is explained by US potential and larger South American production. However, ARC reiterates that Dec’26 CBOT corn holds some 40-70 cents of premium should normal/near normal weather occurs in South America, and the risk is that prices languish in a range of $3.40-$4.10 throughout 12-18 months (spot futures). Selling forward carries is imperative to longer term marketing success as corn prices will need to stay lower to enhance US export demand.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovery Falls at Chart Resistance; August WASDE Dominates First Half of Week:
CBOT corn
‘CBOT corns AM recovery faded as fund managers ending reducing their short position risk ahead of the USDA crop report on Tuesday. New crop cash corn bids in the upper Midwest are quoted at $.50-$.60/Bu under December. The physical cash market is preparing for supply abundance come October. Old crop and new crop US supplies combine for a massive 17.5 Bil Bu of corn in October. The cash corn market will feel supply weight into 2026. The average US corn analyst yield guess is 184.3 BPA. ARC notes there’s nowhere to hide extra supply as 25/26 corn exports are projected at 2.675 Bil Bu (near record high)Feed/residual use can rise 50-100 Mil; Bu.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374