The losses this week were somewhat limited. Outside of the +3% loss in bean oil and nearly 5% loss in oats (yuck, what do they know), marginal losses of gains were noted. It was a sort of calming down period, with a corn market giving some hope that the bleeding is slowing. Of course, this time next week, all of that will likely have changed and we will have a better idea of where the market perceives this crop. Next Tuesday, of course, is the storm, along with several crop tours in the week/weeks following likely adding to the market movement.
Corn continued to grind lower week/week, as September was 6 ¼ cents lower and December lost 5 ¼ cents. USDA reported a few less flash export sales this week, but still reported 464,680 MT all for new crop. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 88% silking as of August 3, with 42% in the dough stage. Ratings were steady this week at 73% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 384. EIA’s ethanol production data showed a drop pf 15,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 1 at 1.081 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 960,000 barrels to 23.756 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at 170,428 MT in the week that ended on July 31, with new crop exploding to 3.16 MMT. Old crop commitments are now 101% of the USDA export projection at 70.62 MMT, slightly behind the average pace of 103% New crop commitments of 11.7 MMT are the second largest for this week on record. Census data showed June corn exports at the second largest all-time for the month at 6.75 MMT (265.6 mbu). That was up 22.76% from 2024, but still 7.43% below May. Ethanol exports were a record for the month at 173.67 million gallons. Managed money spec traders trimmed back their net short position by 7,435 contracts as of Tuesday, taking it to 173,750 contracts.
The wheat complex was mixed this week as the winter wheats were weaker and spring leading the charge higher. Chicago SRW futures were down 2 1/4 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing just 1/2 cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was back up 4 1/2 cents. Crop Progress data showed 86% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind of normal. The US spring wheat crop was 95% headed and 5% harvested, with ratings slipping another 1% to 48% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 332, unchanged on the week. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 737,831 MT, which was a marketing year high. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 10.309 MMT, 45% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 45% average pace. June trade data showed a total of 1.719 MMT of wheat shipped, which was a 4-year high but down 20.42% from last month. Chicago wheat specs added another 15,445 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 80,759 contracts. In KC wheat, they piled on another 9,783 contracts their net short position to 57,063 contracts by August 5.
Soybeans slowed the bleeding this week, with September and November down just 1 ¾ cents. The product values were mixed, with September meal just $5.70/ton higher and September bean oil slipping another 177 points this week. Weekly NASS data showed 85% of the US soybean crop blooming by 8/3 and 58% setting pods. Condition ratings were back down 1 percentage point to 69% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 3 points lower at 375. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings increasing to 467,842 MT in the week of July 31. New crop business was back up in that week to 545,010 MT. Soybean commitments for 2024/25 are now 51.49 MMT, 101% of the USDA estimate and behind the 103% average sales pace. June soybean exports were reported at 1.5 MMT (55.1 mbu) according to Census, up 12.07% from last year but down 5.93% from May. Soybean meal exports were a June record of 1.34 MMT, down 2.71% from May. CFTC data indicated managed money adding another 29,619 contracts to their net short by August 5, to 65,930 contracts.
Live cattle futures were up $2.425 this week, despite the weakness on Friday. Cash trade was steady to $2 weaker this week at $235 in the South and $247 in the North. Feeders posted a gain of $4.825 this week, as the losses on Friday hit the limit (and thus couldn’t go further). The CME Feeder Cattle Index were up another $1.32 week/week to $337.21. Wholesale boxed beef bounced back this week as the Labor Day run begins. Choice was up $15.62 (4.3%) this week to $378.84, while Select was $14.59 (4.3%) lower to $355.09. Weekly beef production was up 0.2% from last week but 7.1% below the same week last year at 462.7 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.6% lower on a 6.6% decline in slaughter. Beef Export Sales data showed a total of 15,921 MT in sales during the week of 7/31. Shipments were 14,049 MT, a 4-week high. Beef export data from Census was tallied at 217.03 million lbs for June, the lowest export total for any month since June 2020. Managed money added back 2,944 contracts to their net long position as of 8/5, taking it to 125,565 contracts as of Tuesday. Spec funds increased their net long by 1,953 contracts from their previous record net long to 37,079 contracts.
Hogs saw a slight gain this week with October battling back 62 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was 27 cents lower this week at $110.10 as of August 6. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a gain of just 47 cents this week to $117.41/cwt. The ham, rib, and belly were all reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 0.6% from last week but 1.0% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2.1% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 30,996 MT of pork sold for 2025 in the week of July 31, a 5-week high. Export shipments were tallied at 28,181 MT in that week, the highest out of the last 3. Census data showed pork export shipments in June at 551.64 million lbs, the third largest for the month on record but a slight 2.3% drop from May. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding back 1,700 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 109,286 contracts.
Cotton saw a recovery this week, as December was up 24 points on the week. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 87% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 8/3 and 55% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 55% good/excellent, unchanged, with the Brugler500 index at 345. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 17,172 RB in old crop net reductions during the week ending on 7/31. New crop saw net sales of 71107,300 RB. Shipments improved to 182,334 RB. Cotton exports excluding linters during June totaled 1.008 million bales, a 22.03% improvement from last year but down 20.02% from May. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down 13 points this week, to 54.39 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding 14,791 contracts to their net short position as of August 5 to a net 55,152 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. Tuesday will see some fireworks, with the Crop Production and WASDE reports. CPI data will also be released on Tuesday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will be the release of the Export Sales report, with PPI data out that morning. Thursday is also the last trading day for August lean hog futures and options the soybean complex. NOPA crush data will be released on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have flattened off this last week, with futures holding the uptrend line off the LOC and April lows at $9.83. That coordinates with a stochastics cross in oversold conditions, i.e. a buy signal if it exits. The threat of a test to $9.51 ¾ still exists with the head and shoulders top. Futures are likely coiling into the Tuesday reports after this back and forth trade. Immediate resistance is at round number of $10, which held a test this week. Beyond that would be a downtrend line at $10.17 and eventually the gap at $10.44 ¼, if we can get yield number low enough to spark a rally.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
The Calming Before The Storm. Ag Marketing Report 08/11/2025
The losses this week were somewhat limited. Outside of the +3% loss in bean oil and nearly 5% loss in oats (yuck, what do they know), marginal losses of gains were noted. It was a sort of calming down period, with a corn market giving some hope that the bleeding is slowing. Of course, this time next week, all of that will likely have changed and we will have a better idea of where the market perceives this crop. Next Tuesday, of course, is the storm, along with several crop tours in the week/weeks following likely adding to the market movement.
Corn continued to grind lower week/week, as September was 6 ¼ cents lower and December lost 5 ¼ cents. USDA reported a few less flash export sales this week, but still reported 464,680 MT all for new crop. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 88% silking as of August 3, with 42% in the dough stage. Ratings were steady this week at 73% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 384. EIA’s ethanol production data showed a drop pf 15,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 1 at 1.081 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 960,000 barrels to 23.756 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at 170,428 MT in the week that ended on July 31, with new crop exploding to 3.16 MMT. Old crop commitments are now 101% of the USDA export projection at 70.62 MMT, slightly behind the average pace of 103% New crop commitments of 11.7 MMT are the second largest for this week on record. Census data showed June corn exports at the second largest all-time for the month at 6.75 MMT (265.6 mbu). That was up 22.76% from 2024, but still 7.43% below May. Ethanol exports were a record for the month at 173.67 million gallons. Managed money spec traders trimmed back their net short position by 7,435 contracts as of Tuesday, taking it to 173,750 contracts.
The wheat complex was mixed this week as the winter wheats were weaker and spring leading the charge higher. Chicago SRW futures were down 2 1/4 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing just 1/2 cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was back up 4 1/2 cents. Crop Progress data showed 86% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind of normal. The US spring wheat crop was 95% headed and 5% harvested, with ratings slipping another 1% to 48% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 332, unchanged on the week. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 737,831 MT, which was a marketing year high. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 10.309 MMT, 45% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 45% average pace. June trade data showed a total of 1.719 MMT of wheat shipped, which was a 4-year high but down 20.42% from last month. Chicago wheat specs added another 15,445 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 80,759 contracts. In KC wheat, they piled on another 9,783 contracts their net short position to 57,063 contracts by August 5.
Soybeans slowed the bleeding this week, with September and November down just 1 ¾ cents. The product values were mixed, with September meal just $5.70/ton higher and September bean oil slipping another 177 points this week. Weekly NASS data showed 85% of the US soybean crop blooming by 8/3 and 58% setting pods. Condition ratings were back down 1 percentage point to 69% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 3 points lower at 375. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings increasing to 467,842 MT in the week of July 31. New crop business was back up in that week to 545,010 MT. Soybean commitments for 2024/25 are now 51.49 MMT, 101% of the USDA estimate and behind the 103% average sales pace. June soybean exports were reported at 1.5 MMT (55.1 mbu) according to Census, up 12.07% from last year but down 5.93% from May. Soybean meal exports were a June record of 1.34 MMT, down 2.71% from May. CFTC data indicated managed money adding another 29,619 contracts to their net short by August 5, to 65,930 contracts.
Live cattle futures were up $2.425 this week, despite the weakness on Friday. Cash trade was steady to $2 weaker this week at $235 in the South and $247 in the North. Feeders posted a gain of $4.825 this week, as the losses on Friday hit the limit (and thus couldn’t go further). The CME Feeder Cattle Index were up another $1.32 week/week to $337.21. Wholesale boxed beef bounced back this week as the Labor Day run begins. Choice was up $15.62 (4.3%) this week to $378.84, while Select was $14.59 (4.3%) lower to $355.09. Weekly beef production was up 0.2% from last week but 7.1% below the same week last year at 462.7 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.6% lower on a 6.6% decline in slaughter. Beef Export Sales data showed a total of 15,921 MT in sales during the week of 7/31. Shipments were 14,049 MT, a 4-week high. Beef export data from Census was tallied at 217.03 million lbs for June, the lowest export total for any month since June 2020. Managed money added back 2,944 contracts to their net long position as of 8/5, taking it to 125,565 contracts as of Tuesday. Spec funds increased their net long by 1,953 contracts from their previous record net long to 37,079 contracts.
Hogs saw a slight gain this week with October battling back 62 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was 27 cents lower this week at $110.10 as of August 6. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a gain of just 47 cents this week to $117.41/cwt. The ham, rib, and belly were all reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 0.6% from last week but 1.0% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2.1% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 30,996 MT of pork sold for 2025 in the week of July 31, a 5-week high. Export shipments were tallied at 28,181 MT in that week, the highest out of the last 3. Census data showed pork export shipments in June at 551.64 million lbs, the third largest for the month on record but a slight 2.3% drop from May. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding back 1,700 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 109,286 contracts.
Cotton saw a recovery this week, as December was up 24 points on the week. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 87% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 8/3 and 55% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 55% good/excellent, unchanged, with the Brugler500 index at 345. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 17,172 RB in old crop net reductions during the week ending on 7/31. New crop saw net sales of 71107,300 RB. Shipments improved to 182,334 RB. Cotton exports excluding linters during June totaled 1.008 million bales, a 22.03% improvement from last year but down 20.02% from May. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down 13 points this week, to 54.39 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding 14,791 contracts to their net short position as of August 5 to a net 55,152 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. Tuesday will see some fireworks, with the Crop Production and WASDE reports. CPI data will also be released on Tuesday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will be the release of the Export Sales report, with PPI data out that morning. Thursday is also the last trading day for August lean hog futures and options the soybean complex. NOPA crush data will be released on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have flattened off this last week, with futures holding the uptrend line off the LOC and April lows at $9.83. That coordinates with a stochastics cross in oversold conditions, i.e. a buy signal if it exits. The threat of a test to $9.51 ¾ still exists with the head and shoulders top. Futures are likely coiling into the Tuesday reports after this back and forth trade. Immediate resistance is at round number of $10, which held a test this week. Beyond that would be a downtrend line at $10.17 and eventually the gap at $10.44 ¼, if we can get yield number low enough to spark a rally.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.