Softs Report 08/11/2025

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Monday, August 11, 2025

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in mostly sideways trading next week. Many are getting ready for the USDA WASDE reports that will be released on Tuesday. Ideas are hat the reports could show a decrease in demand and a slight increase in ending stocks. The weekly export sales report showed relatively strong sales. Better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again, but demand was improved for the week. The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.90, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.80, 68.30 and 69.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 274,755
: Positions :
: 34,672 95,426 66,435 79,903 79,781 81,361 19,728 262,371 261,369: 12,384 13,386
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 15,031) :
: 5,899 13,681 5,822 5,091 -8,055 -1,599 1,923 15,213 13,371: -182 1,660
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 34.7 24.2 29.1 29.0 29.6 7.2 95.5 95.1: 4.5 4.9
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 121 93 76 60 46 22 266 243:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were slightly higher last week after making new lows for the move. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but still down on the weekly charts. The selling came in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 223.00, 216.00, and 207.00 September, with resistance at 254.00, 272.00, and 283.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 5, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 9,937 :
: Positions :
: 2,792 6,303 427 0 178 2,357 325 40 1,356 95 1,423 :
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 :
: -80 -498 -100 0 49 31 271 34 -123 -117 -213 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.1 63.4 4.3 0.0 1.8 23.7 3.3 0.4 13.6 1.0 14.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37 :
: 9 9 . 0 . 5 4 . 9 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher last week, with New York posting the most significant gains as deliverable stocks have declined. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 268.82 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 270.00 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 331.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3440, 3320, and 3200 September, with resistance at 3600, 3680, and 3750 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 207,585
: Positions :
: 30,484 14,174 75,687 49,173 97,525 44,463 12,894 199,807 200,281: 7,779 7,305
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 7,141) :
: 642 341 6,531 -479 -1,550 286 1,779 6,980 7,102: 161 40
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 6.8 36.5 23.7 47.0 21.4 6.2 96.3 96.5: 3.7 3.5
: Total Traders: 337 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 76 115 90 102 44 23 290 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week in what appeared to be short covering. There were ideas of less European production this year that could rally prices later in the year but have drawn no interest so far. Pakistan has issued a new international tender earlier in the week to buy 100,000 tons of White Sugar. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 443.00 October, with resistance at 482.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,030,852
: Positions :
: 104,594 243,731 228,504 380,230 411,688 251,462 69,001 964,791 952,925: 66,061 77,928
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 21,186) :
: -5,748 11,906 8,956 18,802 -11,603 1,517 5,999 23,527 15,260: -2,341 5,926
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.1 23.6 22.2 36.9 39.9 24.4 6.7 93.6 92.4: 6.4 7.6
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 76 84 70 62 35 21 212 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York was higher last week and London closed near unchanged as the British Pound gained on the US Dollar. Demand ideas were down on Friday after the Swiss Chocolate Association said that the Trump tariffs would hurt sales by its members into the US. The President imposed a 34% tariff on Switzerland last week. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8900, 9290, and 9450 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5730, 5810, and 5990 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 116,323
: Positions :
: 13,382 12,890 34,216 35,624 56,844 22,628 5,291 105,850 109,242: 10,473 7,081
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 214) :
: 652 440 552 -100 -280 -1,135 -539 -30 173: 245 42
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 11.1 29.4 30.6 48.9 19.5 4.5 91.0 93.9: 9.0 6.1
: Total Traders: 166 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 50 65 34 36 28 15 147 125:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322