Grains Report 08/11/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. 2025 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2024
Corn Production 15,991 15,705-16,323 15,705 14,867
Soybean Production 4,371 4,290-4,439 4,335 4,366
Corn Yield 184.3 181.0-188.1 181.0 179.3
Soybean Yield 53.0 52.0-53.7 52.5 50.7
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,318 1,290-1,340 1,340
Soybeans 344 305-355 350
Wheat 850 845-851 851
2025-26
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,916 1,660-2,333 1,660
Soybeans 359 310-416 310
Wheat 885 860-920 890
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA July
Corn 285.6 282.6-290.0 284.2
Soybeans 125.0 124.1-126.7 125.1
Wheat 276.1 263.0-364.0 263.6
2025-26
Average Range USDA July
Corn 279.1 272.6-283.9 272.1
Soybeans 127.9 126.5-129.0 126.1
Wheat 261.8 260.1-263.5 261.5
****
2025-26 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA July USDA 2024-25
All Wheat 1,925 1,879-1,950 1,929 1,971
Winter Wheat 1,349 1,328-1,374 1,345 1,349
Hard Red Winter 758 748-774 755 770
Soft Red Winter 338 336-345 337 342
White Winter 252 243-260 254 236
Other Spring 497 478-515 504 542
Durum 80 74-90 80 80

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 12, 2025 108 Aug 08, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was slightly lower last week in response to the strong weekly export sales report and rising world prices for good quality Wheat. There was talk that Russia had a lot of bugs in its Wheat and that made the wheat more difficult to sell.. Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good. The weekly export sales report showed sales within trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 503, 498, and 492 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 551,542
: Positions :
: 78,672 169,571 172,056 125,786 92,191 133,369 76,247 509,884 510,066: 41,658 41,476
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 54,760) :
: 8,297 15,559 31,270 13,157 3,488 -1,664 1,667 51,060 51,983: 3,699 2,776
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 30.7 31.2 22.8 16.7 24.2 13.8 92.4 92.5: 7.6 7.5
: Total Traders: 420 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 117 138 105 100 47 30 339 323:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 310,680
: Positions :
: 29,063 80,217 82,559 82,823 88,709 94,439 35,421 288,884 286,906: 21,796 23,775
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,793) :
: -6,894 2,052 10,015 916 -8,549 3,433 2,608 7,469 6,126: -676 667
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 25.8 26.6 26.7 28.6 30.4 11.4 93.0 92.3: 7.0 7.7
: Total Traders: 279 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 71 74 85 81 36 19 219 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 5, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 67,791 :
: Positions :
: 38,665 21,934 4,271 842 633 6,175 28,878 3,753 2,788 1,434 1,455 :
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 :
: 677 -1,006 1,227 0 -66 -335 4,647 11 604 -1,203 -32 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.0 32.4 6.3 1.2 0.9 9.1 42.6 5.5 4.1 2.1 2.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 107 :
: 47 38 8 . 5 9 19 12 7 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments Rice was higher last week and the market is trying to form a second low on the weekly charts. Chart trends are mixed to up on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast. The weekly export sales report showed just average demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1243, 1237, and 1215 September and resistance is at 1285, 1298, and 1319 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 5, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 14,228 :
: Positions :
: 6,759 1,474 214 154 0 343 7,038 60 2,140 1,391 1,997 :
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 :
: 291 -187 50 -1 0 7 563 25 218 145 158 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.5 10.4 1.5 1.1 0.0 2.4 49.5 0.4 15.0 9.8 14.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 83 :
: 23 13 . . 0 . 20 . 21 9 9 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week on ideas of big supplies coming here and being harvested now in Brazil, but closed in the middle of the weekly trading range due to a very strong weekly export sales report. USDA said that over 3.1 million tons of Corn was sold in the most recent weekly period. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. A slow warming trend could develop through this weekend and it should be mostly dry. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Yield estimates near or above 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard, but the surveys of analysts conducted by the wire services pointed to yields near 183 bushels per acre. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were sharply lower on the weekly charts. We made our annual crop tour of central Illinois over the weekend and found good but not great crops. The tour yield average Was about 198 bu/acre, the second lowest yield calculation in the past 10 years. The ears were small and there were spotty pollination problems and quite a bit of tip back. It looks like the hot summer nights have hurt yield potential and that crop yields of 186 nationally are probably way too high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 375, 372, and 369 September, and resistance is at 389, 396, and 403 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 326, 321, and 315 September, and resistance is at 357, 362, and 370 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,105,137
: Positions :
: 126,694 374,525 705,090 636,370 594,616 453,009 186,437 1,921,163 1,860,669: 183,973 244,468
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 97,520) :
: 12,830 -8,818 67,848 12,172 13,513 2,397 10,728 95,246 83,271: 2,274 14,250
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.0 17.8 33.5 30.2 28.2 21.5 8.9 91.3 88.4: 8.7 11.6
: Total Traders: 794 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 166 209 358 344 51 28 665 638:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher and Soybean Meal was higher last week and Soybean Oil was lower as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. The weekly export sales report showed good sales of about 1.0 million tons when old crop and new crop sales are combined. Temperatures should turn a little warmer through the weekend. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Trade estimates for the USDA crop reports next week are often at 55 bu/acre or a little higher, but analysts polled by the newswires estimated yields closer to 53 bu/acre. President Trump made a post overnight on social media claiming that China was worried about running out of Soybeans and that the US was ready and willing to sell and that China was looking to buy. No one else is making claims like this, but the futures market has rallied in response to the post.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 956, 944, and 932 September, and resistance is at 985, 995, and 1004 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 267.00, 263.00, and 260.00 September, and resistance is at 281.00, 285.00, and 291.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5160, 5030, and 4940 September, with resistance at 5380, 5490, and 5590 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,098,923
: Positions :
: 62,127 178,357 329,997 424,458 455,336 226,499 60,802 1,043,080 1,024,491: 55,844 74,433
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 29,539) :
: -8,170 15,693 35,235 -7,488 -35,549 6,774 11,688 26,351 27,067: 3,189 2,472
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.7 16.2 30.0 38.6 41.4 20.6 5.5 94.9 93.2: 5.1 6.8
: Total Traders: 581 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 119 160 177 211 195 48 28 490 460:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 687,956
: Positions :
: 81,779 71,548 197,407 205,982 355,779 162,769 34,676 647,937 659,410: 40,019 28,546
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: -20,216) :
: -8,085 6,552 -319 -3,631 -25,684 -2,462 -57 -14,497 -19,508: -5,719 -708
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 10.4 28.7 29.9 51.7 23.7 5.0 94.2 95.9: 5.8 4.1
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 77 112 105 106 44 22 296 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 05, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 752,333
: Positions :
: 68,317 180,646 195,408 301,424 299,759 130,146 40,768 695,295 716,581: 57,038 35,753
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 (Change in open interest: 11,609) :
: -2,277 -9,794 10,582 4,056 14,149 2,972 -869 15,332 14,068: -3,723 -2,459
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 24.0 26.0 40.1 39.8 17.3 5.4 92.4 95.2: 7.6 4.8
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 94 101 133 118 38 20 304 282:
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PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were a little higher last week before the release of the next round of MPOB reports on Monday. Futures were higher today qs the increade in ending stocks was not as much ad anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was lower last week. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 663.00, 660.00, and 654.00 November, with resistance at 695.00, 706.00, and 713.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4470 October.

DJ Malaysia’s July Palm Oil Exports 1.31M Tons; Up 3.8%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 3.8% on month at 1.31 million metric tons in July, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the July crop data and revised numbers for June, issued by MPOB:
July June Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,812,417 1,692,370 Up 7.09%
Palm Oil Exports 1,309,059 1,260,930 Up 3.82%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 90,028 86,814 Up 3.7%
Palm Oil Imports 61,039 70,015 Dn 12.82%
Closing Stocks 2,113,278 2,031,560 Up 4.02%
Crude Palm Oil 1,020,780 1,041,781 Dn 2.02%
Processed Palm Oil 1,092,498 989,779 Up 10.38%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 5, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 14,621 :
: Positions :
: 10,335 6,731 62 2,950 760 2,456 0 180 828 3,990 0 :
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 :
: -2,433 -1,690 -16 -1,859 0 -298 0 0 -244 558 -40 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.7 46.0 0.4 20.2 5.2 16.8 0.0 1.2 5.7 27.3 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 8 8 . 6 . . 0 . . 8 0 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 5, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 241,153 :
: Positions :
: 72,685 139,133 4,516 13,781 1,084 106,300 21,634 23,983 14,903 22,165 16,033 :
: Changes from: July 29, 2025 :
: 8,874 -7,754 -1,520 -1,288 -149 -3,985 7,987 392 2,361 6,194 966 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.1 57.7 1.9 5.7 0.4 44.1 9.0 9.9 6.2 9.2 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 354 :
: 47 102 5 . 5 65 30 25 46 86 51 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1065.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1070.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1072.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1075.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1062.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1070.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1075.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1077.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1070.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1067.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1045.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 950.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,350.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 455.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2315)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322