Golden Peace Opportunity. Manic Metals Report 08/11/2025

The gold market is beginning to believe that gold futures have plummeted overnight because the market anticipates that President Trump could actually secure a ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The market sees President Trump’s determination to stop this war as making progress, with his threat of sanctions against Russia possibly bringing Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. Additionally, President Trump’s threats of secondary sanctions against all trading partners may have contributed to this development.
The Wall Street Journal highlights that gold futures are experiencing a temporary retreat after reaching a new all-time high last Friday amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. Currently, futures are down 2.3% at $3,409.80 per troy ounce, following a remarkable surge to $3,534.20 in the prior session on reports that certain gold bars could potentially face U.S. import tariffs. An executive order is anticipated soon, which should provide clarity on this issue.
The global gold market calmed on Friday after the White House denied reports of U.S. import tariffs on Swiss gold bars. A Trump administration spokesperson clarified that gold bar imports will not be subject to tariffs, following panic caused by an earlier report suggesting costly new tariffs had been imposed.
Despite the current volatility, analysts maintain a constructive outlook for gold. Ongoing expectations of interest-rate cuts are supporting the market’s current momentum and maintain gold’s position as an investment option in the present financial environment according to the Journal.
Copper futures are navigating choppy waters, but the market’s pulse remains strong. The Wall Street Journal reports base metal prices softening, with LME three-month copper dipping 0.4% to $9,720.75 per metric ton and aluminum sliding 0.7% to $2,590.25 a ton in thin trading. President Trump’s bold tariff maneuvers have shaken things up, slashing the New York copper premium over LME prices by 20%, per Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen.
This prompted hedge funds to trim net long positions by nearly 40% in early August, as traders scrambled to adapt. Months of rerouting copper to the U.S. in anticipation of tariffs built hefty stockpiles, and a surprise exemption of refined copper from the 50% import tariff has left traders grinning, with U.S. inventories flush.
Base metals are seeking equilibrium, with LME three-month copper down 0.3% to $9,735.60 per metric ton and aluminum off 0.6% to $2,595.75 a ton. Bright spots emerge as Chile’s El Teniente mine ramps back up post-shutdown, with Britannia Global Markets’ Neil Welsh noting the gradual restart bolsters supply and tempers price fears. The U.S. tariff exemption on refined copper continues to stabilize global flows, while LME inventories swell to 157,200 metric tons—the highest since early June—signaling resilience and fresh opportunities in the market according to the Jornal.
The big picture is that Copper should look very bullish as the structural shortage is real, driven by soaring demand and constrained supply.
The broader picture points to persistent deficits. UNCTAD projects a 40% demand surge by 2040, fueled by clean energy transitions—electric vehicles, wind, solar—and AI data centers, requiring $250 billion in investments and 80 new mines by 2030.
Supply is struggling to keep pace: global copper inventories have dropped 44% since February 2025, covering just 6 days of demand, with treatment charges turning negative, signaling scarcity. The IEA forecasts a 30% supply shortfall by 2035, as ore grades decline and new mine development takes 17 years on average, with only 14 new deposits discovered in the last decade
President Trump’s tariffs, including a 50% levy on semi-finished copper, have disrupted flows, though refined copper’s exemption has bolstered U.S. inventories, pushing LME stocks to 157,200 metric tons, the highest since June. While Chile’s El Teniente mine restart eases short-term concerns, long-term challenges—aging mines, underinvestment, and environmental hurdles—persist.
Hedge funds cutting net long positions by 40% in August reflect market caution, but the structural shortage underpins copper’s bullish outlook, with analysts like Goldman Sachs eyeing prices hitting $12,000 per ton by 2030. The supply-demand imbalance will likely keep copper tight for years.
Platinum and palladium have been under pressure over the past couple of days as uncertainty about sanctions continues to roil the market. Fundamentally, we still favor the market on breaks and are watching for signs of a bottom. For gold traders who follow these analogies, More Research recommends buying October gold on August 29th. According to them, this trade has been profitable 12 out of the past 13 years, with an average gain of $2,372; obviously, past performance is not indicative of future results, and volatility remains extreme. Still, it is an interesting development.
Make sure that you contact me for all your metals questions and you can also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network to keep up to date with all the news that is going to move your metals markets just remember you can sign up for the Phil  Flynn daily trade levels by calling me at 888-264-5665 you can also e-mail me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.