Softs Report 08/08/2025

DJ Food Prices Rose in July, Driven by Meat and Vegetable Oils
By Giulia Petroni
World food prices rose last month, driven by meat and vegetable oils despite declines in cereal, dairy and sugar prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 130.1 points in July, a 1.6% increase from June and 7.6% higher than a year earlier. The index remains 18.8% below its peak reached in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meat prices rose 1.2% to a record high, supported by strong U.S. and Chinese import demand for bovine and ovine meats. Poultry prices also saw a slight recovery after top exporter Brazil declared itself free of the bird flu virus, while pig prices fell due to ample supplies and weaker demand in the European Union.
Vegetable-oil prices surged 7.1% from the previous month on palm, soy and sunflower oils, reaching a three-year high. In contrast, rapeseed oil prices declined as new crop supplies arrived in Europe.
Cereal prices fell 0.8% from June, as declining wheat and sorghum prices outweighed increases in maize and barley. Dairy prices edged 0.1% lower on abundant supplies and subdued import demand for butter and milk powders, particularly from Asia. Cheese prices, however, continued to rise, driven by strong demand in Asia and tighter export availability in the EU.
Sugar prices extended their decline for a fifth consecutive month, falling 0.2%. Expectations of a recovery in global production–notably in Brazil, India, and Thailand–weighed on prices, although signs of a rebound in import demand tempered the decline.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed yesterday. The weekly export sales report showed relatively strong sales. Better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again, but demand was improved for the week. The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.20, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.80, 68.30 and 69.00 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower again on mostly speculative selling. Trends are still down. The selling came in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 226.00, 223.00, and 216.00 September, with resistance at 254.00, 272.00, and 283.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher yesterday. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 259.19 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 302.00, 312.00 and 316.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3510, 3600, and 3680 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. There were ideas of less European production this year that could rally prices later in the year but have drawn no interest so far. Pakistan has issued a new international tender earlier in the week to buy 100,000 tons of White Sugar. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 443.00 October, with resistance at 482.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were mostly higher yesterday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Temperatures have turned colder in West Africa and this could be a danger to crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8900, 9290, and 9450 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5730, 5810, and 5990 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322