Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel, Unit Labor Costs QoQ Prel, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, and Wholesale Inventories at 7:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 9:00 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 9:20 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit Change at 2:00 P.M., Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M., and Used Car Prices MoM & YoY.
A year ago NASS forecast the August 1st corn yield at 183.1 BPA soybeans at 53.2 BPA. Both were record large and reflected the potential in the field. The average trade estimate for Tuesday’s 2025 NASS corn yield is 184.3 BPA with soybeans at 53.0 BPA. Compared to last year, the average trade estimates appear to be low. 20254 Central US weather has been far more kind and the 2025 crop is even – it’s extremely difficult to find a bad field. Record large US corn and soybean crops are made with weather and consistency. The 2025 US corn, soybeans, and sorghum crops have the ear marks of a record that will surprise the farmer and industry to the upside. Today, the US corn market is trading a 184 BPA corn yield and crop just under 16.0 Bil Bu, with 2025/26 US corn ends stocks of 1,925 Mil Bu, a stocks/use ratio of 13%. This validates a low in December corn of $4.00. However, if NASS or private crop tours validate a US corn yield of 187-189 BPA, there will be downside price risk to$3.50-$3.70 later this month. The trade will see any rally to $4.10-$4.15 offering the next sale opportunity. Ag Resources (ARC) doubts that the August report will set the seasonal low.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast Consistent with Prior Runs; Major Net Soil Loss Confined to Southeast:
The Central US forecast is similar to prior day output. The return of steady rainfall to the Dakotas and NW Corn Belt has begun. Heavy rainfall across ND, SD, and eastern NE overnight. Additional rainfall of 1-3” favors KS, NE, MO, IA, MN, WI, and western IL over the next 7 days. Lesser but still welcomed totals are probable in IN Aug 12-14. Warmth will be widespread, and while cooler temps would be ideal, it remains that max readings across the principal Corn Belt will be capped in the mid/upper 80’s. Extreme heat focuses on the Southern Plains, LA, and AR. The NOAA’s projected change in soil moisture into August 20th , has stable/improved moisture levels outside of the Southeast Gulf Coast. Significant crop threats are absent, and dry conditions July 31-Aug 6 in IA have been welcomed . Another few weeks of non-threatening weather will produce record US row crop yields.
Bearish Corn Industrial Update
US Motor Gasoline Use Stagnates:
Weekly US gasoline consumption has been unimpressive since mid-spring. Consumption in the week ending August 1st was 63.3 Mil barrels, up 0.8% on the previous year. However, US gasoline demand has been below year-ago levels in 10 of the last 14 weeks. Cumulative disappearance so far in calendar year 2025, is down 0.5% year-over-year. US commercially available crude stocks are not abundant at just 424 Mil barrels, the lowest for late summer since 2018. However, crude oil stocks rebuilding blends begin in September. The stagnate nature of gasoline use acts as a weight on future ethanol grind & consumption, and even works against massive biodiesel/renewable diesel production growth. The odds are high that crude oil markets are oversupplied beginning in late 2025 as OPEC continues to ramp up production. ARC forecast that spot WTI crude oil futures could drop to $55-$60 later this year. To my thinking that would be pessimistic on the economy that seems to be ready roll. The world is oversupplied in energy with US customers to benefit in the months ahead. OPEC is betting that a robust economy will drive crude oil demand.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn’s Bear Trend Persists; Market Oversold with Bullish Input Lacking:
CBOT con futures again scored new lows. End users & importers are in no rush to lock in forward supply. A hand-to-mouth buying pattern is being driven by an expanding harvest progress across the Delta/Southeast. Warmth/dryness will allow the southern US corn harvest to speed along, and ARC reiterates that the combination of larger seedings and favorable weather triggers year-over-year production growth in LA, MS, AR, and GA combined of 160-170 Mil Bu, or 52-56%. The US cash ethanol market is oversupplied. Ethanol has failed to follow WTI crude oil rallies. The looming end of summer is driving ethanol consumption lower in September. Corn futures are oversold. A pause in this break is warranted at $3.80-$3.90 basis December. However lasting lows won’t be scored until harvest begins, and ARC’s concern remains that of sub-$3.70 December if US corn yield surpasses 186 BPA. Corn is a supply bear! Don’t forget an abundance of sorghum for feed, which is cheaper than corn.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Overnight Corn Recovers Slightly; But Bearish Trend Remains Intact. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/07/2025
A year ago NASS forecast the August 1st corn yield at 183.1 BPA soybeans at 53.2 BPA. Both were record large and reflected the potential in the field. The average trade estimate for Tuesday’s 2025 NASS corn yield is 184.3 BPA with soybeans at 53.0 BPA. Compared to last year, the average trade estimates appear to be low. 20254 Central US weather has been far more kind and the 2025 crop is even – it’s extremely difficult to find a bad field. Record large US corn and soybean crops are made with weather and consistency. The 2025 US corn, soybeans, and sorghum crops have the ear marks of a record that will surprise the farmer and industry to the upside. Today, the US corn market is trading a 184 BPA corn yield and crop just under 16.0 Bil Bu, with 2025/26 US corn ends stocks of 1,925 Mil Bu, a stocks/use ratio of 13%. This validates a low in December corn of $4.00. However, if NASS or private crop tours validate a US corn yield of 187-189 BPA, there will be downside price risk to$3.50-$3.70 later this month. The trade will see any rally to $4.10-$4.15 offering the next sale opportunity. Ag Resources (ARC) doubts that the August report will set the seasonal low.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast Consistent with Prior Runs; Major Net Soil Loss Confined to Southeast:
The Central US forecast is similar to prior day output. The return of steady rainfall to the Dakotas and NW Corn Belt has begun. Heavy rainfall across ND, SD, and eastern NE overnight. Additional rainfall of 1-3” favors KS, NE, MO, IA, MN, WI, and western IL over the next 7 days. Lesser but still welcomed totals are probable in IN Aug 12-14. Warmth will be widespread, and while cooler temps would be ideal, it remains that max readings across the principal Corn Belt will be capped in the mid/upper 80’s. Extreme heat focuses on the Southern Plains, LA, and AR. The NOAA’s projected change in soil moisture into August 20th , has stable/improved moisture levels outside of the Southeast Gulf Coast. Significant crop threats are absent, and dry conditions July 31-Aug 6 in IA have been welcomed . Another few weeks of non-threatening weather will produce record US row crop yields.
Bearish Corn Industrial Update
US Motor Gasoline Use Stagnates:
Weekly US gasoline consumption has been unimpressive since mid-spring. Consumption in the week ending August 1st was 63.3 Mil barrels, up 0.8% on the previous year. However, US gasoline demand has been below year-ago levels in 10 of the last 14 weeks. Cumulative disappearance so far in calendar year 2025, is down 0.5% year-over-year. US commercially available crude stocks are not abundant at just 424 Mil barrels, the lowest for late summer since 2018. However, crude oil stocks rebuilding blends begin in September. The stagnate nature of gasoline use acts as a weight on future ethanol grind & consumption, and even works against massive biodiesel/renewable diesel production growth. The odds are high that crude oil markets are oversupplied beginning in late 2025 as OPEC continues to ramp up production. ARC forecast that spot WTI crude oil futures could drop to $55-$60 later this year. To my thinking that would be pessimistic on the economy that seems to be ready roll. The world is oversupplied in energy with US customers to benefit in the months ahead. OPEC is betting that a robust economy will drive crude oil demand.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn’s Bear Trend Persists; Market Oversold with Bullish Input Lacking:
CBOT con futures again scored new lows. End users & importers are in no rush to lock in forward supply. A hand-to-mouth buying pattern is being driven by an expanding harvest progress across the Delta/Southeast. Warmth/dryness will allow the southern US corn harvest to speed along, and ARC reiterates that the combination of larger seedings and favorable weather triggers year-over-year production growth in LA, MS, AR, and GA combined of 160-170 Mil Bu, or 52-56%. The US cash ethanol market is oversupplied. Ethanol has failed to follow WTI crude oil rallies. The looming end of summer is driving ethanol consumption lower in September. Corn futures are oversold. A pause in this break is warranted at $3.80-$3.90 basis December. However lasting lows won’t be scored until harvest begins, and ARC’s concern remains that of sub-$3.70 December if US corn yield surpasses 186 BPA. Corn is a supply bear! Don’t forget an abundance of sorghum for feed, which is cheaper than corn.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374