Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Day Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M. EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Cook Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season is predicted to be above average, with predictions ranging from 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) with a 70% confidence in these ranges including and Colorado State University forecasts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes according to their June 11th forecast. Several forecasting agencies, including NOAA and Colorado State University, anticipate more activity than the 30-year average. While on the latter half of 2025, the dominate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) condition expected to be Enso – neutral, with increasing chances of La Nina conditions are expected to be more probable than El Nino neutral conditions are still favored overall through early winter. It’s unlikely that either La Nina or El Nino will be present by early 2026. This means that South American and Australian weather should be unaffected by equatorial ocean temperatures. One should expect at least a regular Brazilian and Argentine spring season for row crop planting. The long-range weather forecast calls for normal spring weather is not forecast until December.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
US Forecast Drier in Eastern Midwest; Stays Wet in E Plains/W Corn Belt:
The Central US forecast on the margin is drier east of the Mississippi River but otherwise allows moderate to heavy showers into crop-heavy areas of KS, NE, and Dakotas as well all of IA, MN, and WI. Warmth persists into Aug 18-20, but extreme heat-highs in the mid-90’s – will favor TX, OK, Southern KS and the Delta Region. NOAA’s 7-day precipitation forecast shows organized rain begins to impact the E Plains & Dakotas in the next 24 hours and expands into IA, WI, and MN this weekend. Odds are high scattered/regional events impact IL, IN, and MI Aug 12-14. Midwest high temps will be mostly low/mid 80’s
Further Weather Pattern Update
Rain is desired across the eastern Midwest, but the area can withstand 10-12 days of net soil moisture loss without issue. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) showing the seasonality in Iowa and Ohio. It’s no surprise vegetation health in IA in early August was the best on record vegetation health is present in OH – as well in IL & IN. Central US root-zone soil moisture is above average in all but pockets of central IN and far eastern OH. Key in the short -term activity in the W Midwest after August 19th verifies. Today, there is no indication that warmth/dryness in the east will trim national corn yield below 185 BPA or soybeans below 53BPA.
US Major Crop Exports in June-July
Official Census US corn exports in June were lower than expected, but USDA in its August lower than expected, but USDA in its August report is expected to revise upwards its 24/25 US export forecast by 25-50 Mil Bu. Census corn shipments in June totaled 266 Mil Bu, vs. prior expectations of 275-280 Mil, just 11.5(5%) above Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) shipments. This was a relatively narrow spread between official Census & FGIS data in July. Using FGIS data, ARC estimates official US corn exports in July at 238 Mil Bu, vs. 207 Mil a year ago. August export must be only 155 Mil to meet USDA’s target. ARC expects actual August corn exports to be 180-190 Mil Bu – placing final crop year shipments at 2,775-2,875 Mil Bu. 24/25 corn exports will be a set record, but larger projected old crop exports will be lower projected industrial and feed use. Larger Brazilian & Ukrainian crops in 2025 weigh on autumn/early winter US export sales.
Corn Falls to New Contract Lows on Sizable Private Yield Estimates:
CBOT corn futures continue to shed risk premium as US weather threats are avoided into mid-August, private crop estimates exceeded expectations, and as cash pipelines aree being refilled across the Southern States. ARC estimates that 45-50 Mil Bu of new crop supply has been gathered in AR, LA, MS, AL, and GA. The number will double by early next week. The sheer size of the coming harvest offsets all supportive US corn export data. End users see no rush for coverage. S&P global published midday yesterday its initial US yield forecast at 186.0 BPA. This follows Stone X’s 188.1. A yield in August of 186-188 adds 435-610 Mil Bu to USDA’s already-large supply forecast and allows stocks to jump to 2.3-2.3 Bil Bu. Weather ingredients exist for a final yield 188+ BPA given record vegetation health in much of the Plains and Midwest. The other side of harvest will be defined by full bins and competition for importer feed demand. The market is oversold, but analyst doubts recoveries of more than 10-15 cents can be sustained. Lows are expected in Sep/early October with downside targets of $3.50-$3.70 December.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Corn Export Demand Offset by Weather Risk, Yield Estimates, Feed and Industrial Use. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/06/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Day Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M. EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Cook Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season is predicted to be above average, with predictions ranging from 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) with a 70% confidence in these ranges including and Colorado State University forecasts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes according to their June 11th forecast. Several forecasting agencies, including NOAA and Colorado State University, anticipate more activity than the 30-year average. While on the latter half of 2025, the dominate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) condition expected to be Enso – neutral, with increasing chances of La Nina conditions are expected to be more probable than El Nino neutral conditions are still favored overall through early winter. It’s unlikely that either La Nina or El Nino will be present by early 2026. This means that South American and Australian weather should be unaffected by equatorial ocean temperatures. One should expect at least a regular Brazilian and Argentine spring season for row crop planting. The long-range weather forecast calls for normal spring weather is not forecast until December.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
US Forecast Drier in Eastern Midwest; Stays Wet in E Plains/W Corn Belt:
The Central US forecast on the margin is drier east of the Mississippi River but otherwise allows moderate to heavy showers into crop-heavy areas of KS, NE, and Dakotas as well all of IA, MN, and WI. Warmth persists into Aug 18-20, but extreme heat-highs in the mid-90’s – will favor TX, OK, Southern KS and the Delta Region. NOAA’s 7-day precipitation forecast shows organized rain begins to impact the E Plains & Dakotas in the next 24 hours and expands into IA, WI, and MN this weekend. Odds are high scattered/regional events impact IL, IN, and MI Aug 12-14. Midwest high temps will be mostly low/mid 80’s
Further Weather Pattern Update
Rain is desired across the eastern Midwest, but the area can withstand 10-12 days of net soil moisture loss without issue. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) showing the seasonality in Iowa and Ohio. It’s no surprise vegetation health in IA in early August was the best on record vegetation health is present in OH – as well in IL & IN. Central US root-zone soil moisture is above average in all but pockets of central IN and far eastern OH. Key in the short -term activity in the W Midwest after August 19th verifies. Today, there is no indication that warmth/dryness in the east will trim national corn yield below 185 BPA or soybeans below 53BPA.
US Major Crop Exports in June-July
Official Census US corn exports in June were lower than expected, but USDA in its August lower than expected, but USDA in its August report is expected to revise upwards its 24/25 US export forecast by 25-50 Mil Bu. Census corn shipments in June totaled 266 Mil Bu, vs. prior expectations of 275-280 Mil, just 11.5(5%) above Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) shipments. This was a relatively narrow spread between official Census & FGIS data in July. Using FGIS data, ARC estimates official US corn exports in July at 238 Mil Bu, vs. 207 Mil a year ago. August export must be only 155 Mil to meet USDA’s target. ARC expects actual August corn exports to be 180-190 Mil Bu – placing final crop year shipments at 2,775-2,875 Mil Bu. 24/25 corn exports will be a set record, but larger projected old crop exports will be lower projected industrial and feed use. Larger Brazilian & Ukrainian crops in 2025 weigh on autumn/early winter US export sales.
Corn Falls to New Contract Lows on Sizable Private Yield Estimates:
CBOT corn futures continue to shed risk premium as US weather threats are avoided into mid-August, private crop estimates exceeded expectations, and as cash pipelines aree being refilled across the Southern States. ARC estimates that 45-50 Mil Bu of new crop supply has been gathered in AR, LA, MS, AL, and GA. The number will double by early next week. The sheer size of the coming harvest offsets all supportive US corn export data. End users see no rush for coverage. S&P global published midday yesterday its initial US yield forecast at 186.0 BPA. This follows Stone X’s 188.1. A yield in August of 186-188 adds 435-610 Mil Bu to USDA’s already-large supply forecast and allows stocks to jump to 2.3-2.3 Bil Bu. Weather ingredients exist for a final yield 188+ BPA given record vegetation health in much of the Plains and Midwest. The other side of harvest will be defined by full bins and competition for importer feed demand. The market is oversold, but analyst doubts recoveries of more than 10-15 cents can be sustained. Lows are expected in Sep/early October with downside targets of $3.50-$3.70 December.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374