Softs Report 08/05/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on short covering and s weaker US Dollar even as better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again, but demand was improved for the week. The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.88 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.20, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.20, 67.80 and 68.30 December.

DJ U.S. June Cotton Exports-Aug 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 25 May 25 Apr 25 Jun 24
Upland, under 1 inch 6,325,069 7,525,370 11,269,804 3,729,604
1 to 1 1/8 inch 75,355,041 88,047,994 107,236,065 46,848,979
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 8,960,398 6,792,175 7,422,503 4,746,492
upland 1 1/8 and over 128,900,950 172,164,670 235,660,125 124,745,372
All cotton 219,541,458 274,530,209 361,588,497 180,070,447
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jun 25 May 25 Apr 25 Jun 24
Upland, under 1 inch 29,051 34,564 51,762 17,130
1 to 1 1/8 inch 346,103 404,401 492,531 215,176
upland 1 1/8 and over 41,155 31,196 34,091 21,800
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 592,037 790,746 1,082,378 572,951
All cotton 1,008,346 1,260,907 1,660,762 827,057

Cotton Squaring 87 80 87 89
Cotton Setting Bolls 55 44 50 58
Cotton Bolls Opening 5 7 6
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 10 30 45 10
Cotton Last Week 7 7 31 44 11
Cotton Last Year 12 15 28 37 8

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher in recovery trading after moving sharply lower late last week. Trends are down. The selling came in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 226.00, 223.00, and 216.00 September, with resistance at 254.00, 272.00, and 283.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher yesterday, with buying tied to a lower US Dollar and on reports from Brazil that President Lula could still negotiate on tariffs with the US. In addition, comments from the USTR that Coffee and Cocoa might be able to be imported without tariffs were still in comments even with many trade deals needing to be settled first. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 253.10 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 302.00, 312.00 and 316.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3450, 3510, and 36w00 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday. There were ideas of less European production this year that could rally prices later in the year. Pakistan ha issued a new international tender to buy 100,000 tons of White Sugar. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 463.00, 449.00, and 446.00 October, with resistance at 482.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London was lower yesterday. News of weak employment data for the most recent quarter from the Commerce Dept and from the USTR noting that tariffs could be lifted on Cocoa and Coffee imports hurt US prices yesterday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Temperatures have turned colder in West Africa and this could be a danger to crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8200, 8720, and 8900 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5730, 5810, and 5990 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322