Weekly Ag Markets Update – 08/04/2025

Wheat: Wheat was lower last week, with Chicago the weaker market.  Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling.  Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  Canada could still produce an average to above average crop.  Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields.  Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.  The weekly export sales report showed sales within trade expectations.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Unavaiable today

 

Corn:  Corn was lower last week on what appeared to be commercial buying based on another week of strong export sales and speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest.  Cooler temperatures should return for the next few days, then a slow warming trend could develop.  Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Yield estimates near or above 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong.  The weekly export sales report showed that sales were at the high end of trade expectations.  Oats were lower but held recent lows on the weekly charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest.  Temperatures should turn cooler early this week and then turn a little warmer.  Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.  The weekly export sales report showed sales within expectations of the trade.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice was a little lower again last week on what is reported to be fund and large speculator selling.  Chart trends are still down on the daily charts.  The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality.  There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher last week but the rally appears to be limited for now.  There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon.  Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around.  Canola was a little lower.  Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.  The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was lower last week and closed near the lows of the week as better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged.  The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again.  The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off.  There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however.  Condition is rated behind last year.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  Futures were sharply lower to limit down on both Thursday and Friday on speculative selling.  Trends are down.  The selling came in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year.  So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market.  Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers.  This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London were both lower last week, with selling seen on Friday on news of employment weakness in the US.  The Commerce Dept said Friday that job growth was poor in the most recent quarter.  In addition, comments from the USTR that Coffee and Cocoa might be able to be imported without tariffs were viewed as negative for prices.  Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil.  Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil.  Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up.  The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest.  Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week.  The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar: Both markets were lower last week on increasing fears about tariffs and the condition on the US economy and despite news of less sucrose found in Brazil Sugarcane.  US job growth was reported to be poor in the most recent quarter according to the Commerce Dept.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season.  Good rains are still reported in Thailand.  Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.  However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York closed a little lower and London was slightly higher last week as buying from more stressful weather reported for West Africa remained.  News of weak employment data for the most recent quarter from the Commerce Dept and from the USTR noting that tariffs could be lifted on Cocoa and Coffee imports hurt US prices on Friday, but futures in both markets have been in a tight range all week.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.  Temperatures have turned colder in West Africa and this could be a danger to crops.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

 

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