Just this past weekend, while trying to enjoy the company of my wife and three kids, I decided it would be a good idea to jump in the pool with them. This is where I will Inform the reader that it it’s very common for me to wear a hat anytime I am outside, but last weekend was an exception. Growing up I was always blessed with a thick head of hair. It was this past week I found out that thick head of hair is apparently thinning up top. I have dealt with plenty of sunburns in my day, being the redhead that I am. But the red on this head felt a little different this week. I cannot say things are much better for the grains, as the bulls cannot help but get (sun) burnt. I think the cattle need to share the sunscreen!
Corn bears added to the pressure this week, with September calling 10 cents this week, with December losing another 8 ¼ cents. USDA reported several flash export sales this week, totaling 1.147 MMT for new crop. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 76% silking as of July 27, with 26% in the dough stage. Ratings slipped back this week to 73% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 384. EIA’s weekly ethanol production improved 18,000 barrels per day in the week ending on July 28 at 1.096 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were building, up 272,000 barrels to 24.716 million barrels. USDA Grain Crushing data indicated 447.97 mbu of corn used for ethanol production during June, which was up 0.8% from May and 0.41% larger than last year. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at 340,924 MT in the week that ended on July 24, with new crop exploding to 1.892 MMT. Old crop commitments are now 101% of the USDA export projection at 70.45 MMT, slightly behind the average pace of 102%. Spec funds increased their net short position by 3,820 contracts as of Tuesday, taking it to 181,185 contracts.
The wheat complex continued some weakness, exploring new contract lows in for some. Chicago SRW futures were down 21 ½ cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing just a 7 ¾ cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was down another 12 ½ cents. Crop Progress data showed 80% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind of normal. The US spring wheat crop was 95% headed and 1% harvested, with ratings slipping another 3% to 49% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 332, down 6 points. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 592,119 MT. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 9.57 MMT, 41% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 39% average pace. USDA Flour Milling data for April – June showed wheat ground for flour at 222.94 mbu, a 3.7 mbu drop from the previous quarter and 3 mbu shy of the same period last year. Chicago wheat specs added back 13,283 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday to 65,324 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 3,321 contracts to 47,280 contracts by July 29.
Soybeans collapsed another 37 cents in the August contract this week, with November falling 31 ¾ cents. The product values added some pressure, with August meal just 30 cents/ton lower and August bean oil slipping 177 points this week. Weekly NASS data showed 76% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/27 and 41% setting pods. Condition ratings were back up 2 percentage points to 70% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 5 points higher at 378. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings increasing to 349,164 MT in the week of July 24. New crop business was back up in that week to 429,457 MT. Soybean commitments for 2024/25 are now 51.1 MMT, 101% of the USDA estimate and behind the 103% average sales pace. Fats & Oils data tallied 197.1 mbu of soybeans during June, 7.44% above last year but down 3.22% from May. Bean oil stocks totaled 1.894 billion lbs, which was slightly higher than in May but still down 10.85% from last year. CFTC data indicated managed money adding back to their net short by 25,445 contracts as of July 29, to 36,311 contracts.
Live cattle futures continued their march higher this week, as August was up $3.65. Cash trade was firm to $3-5 higher with the South at $235-236 and $247 in the North. Feeders saw some gains, mainly on from the Friday action, $3.20 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index shot up another $7.06 week/week to $335.89. Wholesale boxed beef weakness continued as both cuts are $30-40 off their early July highs. Choice was down another $3.46 (-0.9%) this week to $363.22, while Select was $4.37 (-1.3%) lower to $344.50. Weekly beef production was down 2.6% from last week and 7.6% below the same week last year at 462 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.5% lower on a 6.6% decline in slaughter. Beef Export Sales totaled 8,483 MT in the week ending on July 24. Shipments totaled 12,262 MT. Managed money peeled back 3,150 contracts from their net long position as of 7/29, taking it to 128,509 contracts as of Tuesday. Spec funds were cutting back 2,680 contracts from their previous record net long to 35,126 contracts.
Hogs pulled back this week, with August down $1.35 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was 42 cents higher this week at 110.37 as of July 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a slight pullback this week, down $1.92 (1.6%) to $116.94/cwt. The butt, ham, rib, and belly were all reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 0.3% from last week and 4.0% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2.1% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales for pork totaled 17,003 MT in the week ending on 7/24, a 6-week low. Shipments were tallied at 27,573 MT, back up from the week prior. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money trimming another 2,821 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 107,586 contracts.
Cotton saw some continued weakness this week as December was down another 187 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 80% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/27 and 44% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 55% good/excellent, down 2%, or 2 points lower on the Brugler500 index at 345. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 39,124 RB in old cotton crop sales during the week ending on 7/24. New crop saw net sales of 71,683 RB. Shipments improved to 230,949 RB. Old crop cotton export commitments are 107% of USDA’s estimate at 11.81 million RB, behind the 116% average pace. The marketing year ended on Thursday. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down 43 points this week, to 54.52 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding just 482 contracts to their net short position as of July 29 to a net 40,361 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. Monday is also first notice day for August live cattle. Census trade data for June will be released on Tuesday morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will be the release of the Export Sales report.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn is back near the lows from the middle of July of $4.07 ½. Thus far that has held this week as futures haven’t breached below $4.08. The hammer from Thursday was ignored by Friday’s weakness, so there is nothing to take away from that. Still holding the low does help, as the export business from this week (exceeding 1 MMT) has helped to keep support under the market. That low from July hit the conservative count off the triangle using the May low (not shown). Using the April low, the count is near $4. Bulls are fending things off for now. Stochastics are oversold but have yet to cross. CCI is also nearing oversold but failing to say buy. Any upside target would be the gap from July 7th at $4.32 ¾, assuming the 40-day moving average at $4.26 ¼ can be breached.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Sunburn. Ag Marketing Report 08/04/2025
Just this past weekend, while trying to enjoy the company of my wife and three kids, I decided it would be a good idea to jump in the pool with them. This is where I will Inform the reader that it it’s very common for me to wear a hat anytime I am outside, but last weekend was an exception. Growing up I was always blessed with a thick head of hair. It was this past week I found out that thick head of hair is apparently thinning up top. I have dealt with plenty of sunburns in my day, being the redhead that I am. But the red on this head felt a little different this week. I cannot say things are much better for the grains, as the bulls cannot help but get (sun) burnt. I think the cattle need to share the sunscreen!
Corn bears added to the pressure this week, with September calling 10 cents this week, with December losing another 8 ¼ cents. USDA reported several flash export sales this week, totaling 1.147 MMT for new crop. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 76% silking as of July 27, with 26% in the dough stage. Ratings slipped back this week to 73% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 384. EIA’s weekly ethanol production improved 18,000 barrels per day in the week ending on July 28 at 1.096 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were building, up 272,000 barrels to 24.716 million barrels. USDA Grain Crushing data indicated 447.97 mbu of corn used for ethanol production during June, which was up 0.8% from May and 0.41% larger than last year. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at 340,924 MT in the week that ended on July 24, with new crop exploding to 1.892 MMT. Old crop commitments are now 101% of the USDA export projection at 70.45 MMT, slightly behind the average pace of 102%. Spec funds increased their net short position by 3,820 contracts as of Tuesday, taking it to 181,185 contracts.
The wheat complex continued some weakness, exploring new contract lows in for some. Chicago SRW futures were down 21 ½ cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing just a 7 ¾ cent loss. MPLS September spring wheat was down another 12 ½ cents. Crop Progress data showed 80% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind of normal. The US spring wheat crop was 95% headed and 1% harvested, with ratings slipping another 3% to 49% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 332, down 6 points. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 592,119 MT. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 9.57 MMT, 41% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 39% average pace. USDA Flour Milling data for April – June showed wheat ground for flour at 222.94 mbu, a 3.7 mbu drop from the previous quarter and 3 mbu shy of the same period last year. Chicago wheat specs added back 13,283 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday to 65,324 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 3,321 contracts to 47,280 contracts by July 29.
Soybeans collapsed another 37 cents in the August contract this week, with November falling 31 ¾ cents. The product values added some pressure, with August meal just 30 cents/ton lower and August bean oil slipping 177 points this week. Weekly NASS data showed 76% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/27 and 41% setting pods. Condition ratings were back up 2 percentage points to 70% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 5 points higher at 378. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings increasing to 349,164 MT in the week of July 24. New crop business was back up in that week to 429,457 MT. Soybean commitments for 2024/25 are now 51.1 MMT, 101% of the USDA estimate and behind the 103% average sales pace. Fats & Oils data tallied 197.1 mbu of soybeans during June, 7.44% above last year but down 3.22% from May. Bean oil stocks totaled 1.894 billion lbs, which was slightly higher than in May but still down 10.85% from last year. CFTC data indicated managed money adding back to their net short by 25,445 contracts as of July 29, to 36,311 contracts.
Live cattle futures continued their march higher this week, as August was up $3.65. Cash trade was firm to $3-5 higher with the South at $235-236 and $247 in the North. Feeders saw some gains, mainly on from the Friday action, $3.20 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index shot up another $7.06 week/week to $335.89. Wholesale boxed beef weakness continued as both cuts are $30-40 off their early July highs. Choice was down another $3.46 (-0.9%) this week to $363.22, while Select was $4.37 (-1.3%) lower to $344.50. Weekly beef production was down 2.6% from last week and 7.6% below the same week last year at 462 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.5% lower on a 6.6% decline in slaughter. Beef Export Sales totaled 8,483 MT in the week ending on July 24. Shipments totaled 12,262 MT. Managed money peeled back 3,150 contracts from their net long position as of 7/29, taking it to 128,509 contracts as of Tuesday. Spec funds were cutting back 2,680 contracts from their previous record net long to 35,126 contracts.
Hogs pulled back this week, with August down $1.35 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was 42 cents higher this week at 110.37 as of July 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a slight pullback this week, down $1.92 (1.6%) to $116.94/cwt. The butt, ham, rib, and belly were all reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 0.3% from last week and 4.0% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2.1% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales for pork totaled 17,003 MT in the week ending on 7/24, a 6-week low. Shipments were tallied at 27,573 MT, back up from the week prior. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money trimming another 2,821 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 107,586 contracts.
Cotton saw some continued weakness this week as December was down another 187 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 80% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/27 and 44% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 55% good/excellent, down 2%, or 2 points lower on the Brugler500 index at 345. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 39,124 RB in old cotton crop sales during the week ending on 7/24. New crop saw net sales of 71,683 RB. Shipments improved to 230,949 RB. Old crop cotton export commitments are 107% of USDA’s estimate at 11.81 million RB, behind the 116% average pace. The marketing year ended on Thursday. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down 43 points this week, to 54.52 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding just 482 contracts to their net short position as of July 29 to a net 40,361 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. Monday is also first notice day for August live cattle. Census trade data for June will be released on Tuesday morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Thursday morning will be the release of the Export Sales report.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn is back near the lows from the middle of July of $4.07 ½. Thus far that has held this week as futures haven’t breached below $4.08. The hammer from Thursday was ignored by Friday’s weakness, so there is nothing to take away from that. Still holding the low does help, as the export business from this week (exceeding 1 MMT) has helped to keep support under the market. That low from July hit the conservative count off the triangle using the May low (not shown). Using the April low, the count is near $4. Bulls are fending things off for now. Stochastics are oversold but have yet to cross. CCI is also nearing oversold but failing to say buy. Any upside target would be the gap from July 7th at $4.32 ¾, assuming the 40-day moving average at $4.26 ¼ can be breached.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.