Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.
The basket of 28 commodities that captured in the CRB index appears to be forming a secondary top. Energy, livestock, and grain markets are weakening into August with there being no evidence of capital inflows into the broad raw material space. The Trump Administration prefers cheap energy to combat inflationary pressures that are emerging from recent tariff increases. If the US is able to hold August 1st tariff levels into’26, it’s unlikely that tariffs will have a lasting inflationary impact on the broad commodity markets. It will take years to ramp up US manufacturing capacity. Ag Resources (ARC), myself and many other analysts agree and forecast and expect bullish trade deal announcements will be finished in just another 24 hours. Thereafter, its about an increase in US goods tariffs and additional income flowing into the US Government Treasury. The US dollar is forecast to strengthen amid a US GDP rate that ranges from 2-4%. General US commodity values should sag into year end.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Drought Coverage Erodes Further; Mild/Dry Pattern Forecast into Aug 10th:
The Central US weather stays favorable into the middle part of August. Rainfall of .40-1.90” was recorded in eastern NE, IA, MO, WI, and northern IL, IN, and MI on Wednesday. A welcomed drier pattern blankets the primary Corn Belt into Aug 7-8, but regular rain is forecast thereafter in IA & the entire eastern Midwest. Heavy rainfall of 1-2” is forecast in IA, WI, IL, and IN August 7-14. High temps in the 70’s/low 80’s will be common throughout the next two weeks. Drought/abnormal dryness was eased further in the last week across KS, NE, IL, and IN. Drought now covers just 7% of corn planted area and 5% of soybean, and soil moisture levels will be stable nearby amid mild temps. A year ago heat in the second half of August and rapid net soil moisture loss stole from potential from final yields. Heat is very likely to be avoided in August 2025.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Recovery; US Export Demand Strong for Now; $3.95 Resistance Key for Sep Contract:
CBOT corn futures ended slightly higher for a second day, and key on Friday is whether Sep can end the week above what is solid chart resistance at $3.95. Low volume technical trading is probable to end the week, but many analyst’s concern remains centered on feed market oversupply. Improved weather in E Europe & Black Sea is noted. Spot sorghum basis is now widely quoted $.90 under – with cash prices in KS dropping to $3.05-$3.15/Bu. This displaces corn in feed and ethanol markets. Yet, the market has sustained enlarge export demand amid delayed harvest in Brazil and the absence of spot Ukrainian supplies. Exporters in the week ending July 24th sold a sizable 74 Mil Bu for new crop delivery. Total new crop commitments are at a 4-year high at 685 Mil. This is welcomed, but in the long run fails to prevent 25/26 US end stocks of 2.1-2.4 Bil Bu. Recall a year ago NASS pegged US yield in August at 183.1 BPA. An Aug yield this year of 184-186 is most probable amid current crop ratings & vegetation health. Use short term recoveries to position short. ARC won’t ruled out a final yield of 186+ and end stocks of 2.4+ Bil Bu. Corn rallies will be capped at $4.15-$4.20 Dec. Other data numbers suggest final corn yield at 185.7 BPA, up 6.4 BPA from last year, and 3 bushels over WASDE estimate. A 4-5 BPA (2-3%) hike from July to August is historically reasonable.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions and open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Tariff Deadline Pressures Mount; but Countries Still Seek US Trade Agreement. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/01/2025
We kickoff the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.
The basket of 28 commodities that captured in the CRB index appears to be forming a secondary top. Energy, livestock, and grain markets are weakening into August with there being no evidence of capital inflows into the broad raw material space. The Trump Administration prefers cheap energy to combat inflationary pressures that are emerging from recent tariff increases. If the US is able to hold August 1st tariff levels into’26, it’s unlikely that tariffs will have a lasting inflationary impact on the broad commodity markets. It will take years to ramp up US manufacturing capacity. Ag Resources (ARC), myself and many other analysts agree and forecast and expect bullish trade deal announcements will be finished in just another 24 hours. Thereafter, its about an increase in US goods tariffs and additional income flowing into the US Government Treasury. The US dollar is forecast to strengthen amid a US GDP rate that ranges from 2-4%. General US commodity values should sag into year end.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Drought Coverage Erodes Further; Mild/Dry Pattern Forecast into Aug 10th:
The Central US weather stays favorable into the middle part of August. Rainfall of .40-1.90” was recorded in eastern NE, IA, MO, WI, and northern IL, IN, and MI on Wednesday. A welcomed drier pattern blankets the primary Corn Belt into Aug 7-8, but regular rain is forecast thereafter in IA & the entire eastern Midwest. Heavy rainfall of 1-2” is forecast in IA, WI, IL, and IN August 7-14. High temps in the 70’s/low 80’s will be common throughout the next two weeks. Drought/abnormal dryness was eased further in the last week across KS, NE, IL, and IN. Drought now covers just 7% of corn planted area and 5% of soybean, and soil moisture levels will be stable nearby amid mild temps. A year ago heat in the second half of August and rapid net soil moisture loss stole from potential from final yields. Heat is very likely to be avoided in August 2025.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Recovery; US Export Demand Strong for Now; $3.95 Resistance Key for Sep Contract:
CBOT corn futures ended slightly higher for a second day, and key on Friday is whether Sep can end the week above what is solid chart resistance at $3.95. Low volume technical trading is probable to end the week, but many analyst’s concern remains centered on feed market oversupply. Improved weather in E Europe & Black Sea is noted. Spot sorghum basis is now widely quoted $.90 under – with cash prices in KS dropping to $3.05-$3.15/Bu. This displaces corn in feed and ethanol markets. Yet, the market has sustained enlarge export demand amid delayed harvest in Brazil and the absence of spot Ukrainian supplies. Exporters in the week ending July 24th sold a sizable 74 Mil Bu for new crop delivery. Total new crop commitments are at a 4-year high at 685 Mil. This is welcomed, but in the long run fails to prevent 25/26 US end stocks of 2.1-2.4 Bil Bu. Recall a year ago NASS pegged US yield in August at 183.1 BPA. An Aug yield this year of 184-186 is most probable amid current crop ratings & vegetation health. Use short term recoveries to position short. ARC won’t ruled out a final yield of 186+ and end stocks of 2.4+ Bil Bu. Corn rallies will be capped at $4.15-$4.20 Dec. Other data numbers suggest final corn yield at 185.7 BPA, up 6.4 BPA from last year, and 3 bushels over WASDE estimate. A 4-5 BPA (2-3%) hike from July to August is historically reasonable.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions and open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374