Softs Report 07/28/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week in narrow range trading. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. Export sales were once again on the weak side last week. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.95 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 255,909
: Positions :
: 29,062 80,567 60,740 71,287 87,146 82,270 16,190 243,359 244,642: 12,551 11,267
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 7,964) :
: 914 1,790 2,368 3,918 2,398 201 1,001 7,400 7,558: 564 406
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.4 31.5 23.7 27.9 34.1 32.1 6.3 95.1 95.6: 4.9 4.4
: Total Traders: 329 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 116 85 75 60 46 22 252 234:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher again last week on speculative buying, but selling seen on Friday erased most of the gains. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil is still supporting prices. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. Neilsen said on Friday that prices for a gallon of Orange Juice at the retail level was estimated at 11.68, up 16.5% for the calendar year and 20% from the same month a year ago.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 292.00, and 289.00 September, with resistance at 344.00, 350.00, and 356.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,567 :
: Positions :
: 2,973 6,998 557 0 124 2,037 235 18 1,690 70 1,512 :
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 :
: -192 1,199 130 0 -137 -70 -955 -46 2 -8 -315 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.1 66.2 5.3 0.0 1.2 19.3 2.2 0.2 16.0 0.7 14.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 40 :
: 12 9 . 0 . 7 . 4 11 . 6 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week with Robusta more available to the market and with Brazzil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weakening also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. Much less Coffee from Brazil is now expected to enter the US market. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 256.26 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3400, 3600, and 3750 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 196,986
: Positions :
: 30,795 13,794 65,782 49,855 100,800 43,201 9,941 189,632 190,316: 7,354 6,670
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,597) :
: 513 -81 2,742 -413 88 789 766 3,631 3,516: -34 81
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 7.0 33.4 25.3 51.2 21.9 5.0 96.3 96.6: 3.7 3.4
: Total Traders: 331 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 69 108 92 103 44 20 282 252:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week on ideas of a potential to greatly increase Sugar demand inside the US with the changes to Coke, but as ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 465.00, 446.00, and 449.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 512.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 999,710
: Positions :
: 110,718 227,844 214,207 363,079 417,785 246,014 63,183 934,019 923,020: 65,692 76,691
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,829) :
: -4,671 2,208 -4,235 12,766 6,898 2,034 1,679 5,895 6,550: -66 -721
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 22.8 21.4 36.3 41.8 24.6 6.3 93.4 92.3: 6.6 7.7
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 68 83 64 61 37 20 211 187:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week as futures rallied away from lows set by news of weakening demand from the the poor grind data from Europe and Asia. The North American grind showed a small reduction. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8630, 8900, and 9390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5990 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 114,895
: Positions :
: 12,571 12,381 33,879 37,278 56,614 20,505 5,323 104,234 108,198: 10,662 6,698
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: -4,111) :
: -2,313 305 175 -1,644 169 317 -4,409 -3,465 -3,760: -647 -351
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 10.8 29.5 32.4 49.3 17.8 4.6 90.7 94.2: 9.3 5.8
: Total Traders: 164 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 46 60 32 33 30 18 141 124:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322