Grains Report 07/28/2025

USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT JULY 25, 2025 and BIANNUAL CATTLE REPORT
Range Average Actual Actual Head Est Head
On feed as of July 1 98.8-100 99.2 98 11,124 11.214
Placements in June 96-101 98.0 92 1,441 1.533
Marketings in June 95.9-98.1 96.4 96 1,707 1.722

USDA COLD STORAGE REPORT JULY 25, 2025
June 2025 Highlights
Total red meat supplies in freezers were down 4 percent from the previous month and down 7 percent from last year.
Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 3 percent from the previous month and down 1 percent from last year.
Frozen pork supplies were down 6 percent from the previous month and down 11 percent from last year.
Stocks of pork bellies were down 17 percent from last month and down 28 percent from last year.

USDA CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT JULY 25, 2025
July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent
All cattle and calves in the United States on July 1, 2025 totaled 94.2 million head, 1 percent below the 95.4 million head on July 1, 2023.
All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million head, 1 percent below the 38.4 million head on July 1, 2023. Beef cows, at 28.7 million head, are down 1 percent from two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.45 million head, are up 1 percent from 2023.
All heifers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2025 totaled 14.6 million head, 2 percent below the 14.9 million head on July 1, 2023. Beef replacement heifers, at 3.70 million head, are down 3 percent from two years earlier. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.50 million head, are unchanged from 2023. Other heifers, at 7.40 million head, are 3 percent below two years ago.
Steers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2025 totaled 13.8 million head, down 1 percent from July 1, 2023.
Bulls 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2025 totaled 1.90 million head, unchanged from two years earlier.
Calves under 500 pounds on July 1, 2025 totaled 25.8 million head, down 2 percent from 2023.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.0 million head on July 1, 2025, down 1 percent from two years earlier. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 85.6 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2025, down slightly from two years ago. The total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 34.0 million head, is down 2 percent from the 34.7 million head on July 1, 2023.
Calf Crop Down 1 Percent
The 2025 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 33.1 million head, down 1 percent from last year. Calves born during the first half of 2025 are estimated at 24.3 million head, down 1 percent from the first half of 2024. An additional 8.80 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2025.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week despite the news of a relatively strong weekly export sales report and weaker than expected yield estimates from the Spring Wheat tour of the Dakotas. The ztour estimate was for 49 bushels per acre, down fzrom 59 lastz year. Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up Support is at 521 508 and 496 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 516, 504, and 498 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 492,164
: Positions :
: 76,544 145,053 152,013 100,444 86,652 130,153 69,745 459,153 453,463: 33,011 38,701
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 22,988) :
: 8,780 -1,110 12,044 911 8,530 2,055 2,642 23,790 22,107: -802 882
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 29.5 30.9 20.4 17.6 26.4 14.2 93.3 92.1: 6.7 7.9
: Total Traders: 400 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 119 132 107 104 46 29 325 314:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 299,687
: Positions :
: 39,386 77,807 73,009 76,615 95,084 89,283 31,743 278,293 277,642: 21,394 22,044
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,094) :
: 7,333 1,593 1,816 -3,002 3,969 1,229 1,727 7,375 9,105: 1,718 -11
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 26.0 24.4 25.6 31.7 29.8 10.6 92.9 92.6: 7.1 7.4
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 59 64 80 79 37 20 209 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 62,098 :
: Positions :
: 33,105 24,019 2,671 1,100 812 7,250 18,538 5,270 2,583 1,846 2,070 :
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 :
: 7,323 -5,000 -286 269 48 -3,301 6,990 1,025 -782 -31 -648 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.3 38.7 4.3 1.8 1.3 11.7 29.9 8.5 4.2 3.0 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 111 :
: 53 39 6 . 4 11 19 12 6 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments Rice was higher on follow through buying from the news of a trade deal with Japan that is reported to include better access to that market for Rice. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1242, 1228, and 1218 September and resistance is at 1276, 1285, and 1298 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,930 :
: Positions :
: 6,042 1,774 154 159 0 298 5,900 292 2,083 1,389 1,528 :
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 :
: 216 -448 0 10 0 37 965 145 488 430 268 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.7 13.7 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.3 45.6 2.3 16.1 10.7 11.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 83 :
: 20 12 . . 0 . 21 . 21 10 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week on the forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. The export sales report was strong when the current crop year and the next crop year sales were combined. Temperatures should stay warm to hot for the next couple of days, but then cooler temperatures should return. Rain is expected with the cooler temperatures. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Yield estimates of 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 229,000 tons of US Corn and Mexico bought 225,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 390, 387, and 384 September, and resistance is at 414, 418, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 349, 339, and 335 September, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 394 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,968,667
: Positions :
: 106,085 370,055 630,445 603,519 568,014 450,345 175,268 1,790,395 1,743,781: 178,272 224,885
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 51,586) :
: -1,910 -2,142 33,297 14,061 4,336 7,529 8,578 52,978 44,069: -1,391 7,517
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.4 18.8 32.0 30.7 28.9 22.9 8.9 90.9 88.6: 9.1 11.4
: Total Traders: 794 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 177 204 353 344 51 28 658 631:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week and Soybean Oil was higher as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Temperatures should turn cooler later this week after some more hot days early in the week. There should be some showers around as well. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 993, 983, and 970 August, and resistance is at 1020, 1037, and 1047 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 265.00, 262.00, and 259.00 August, and resistance is at 277.00, 282.00, and 287.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 5500, 5390, and 5310 August, with resistance at 5720, 5840, and 5960 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,144,600
: Positions :
: 74,613 141,749 344,088 454,270 534,126 220,025 53,325 1,092,996 1,073,289: 51,604 71,311
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 28,795) :
: 232 -21,857 19,046 2,637 30,576 9,318 1,248 31,233 29,012: -2,439 -217
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.5 12.4 30.1 39.7 46.7 19.2 4.7 95.5 93.8: 4.5 6.2
: Total Traders: 585 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 156 191 215 209 47 25 504 473:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 716,564
: Positions :
: 82,742 67,388 205,140 221,665 381,301 165,345 34,681 674,892 688,509: 41,672 28,054
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 28,678) :
: 4,871 -4,659 8,906 9,148 21,345 5,262 3,900 28,187 29,491: 491 -813
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 9.4 28.6 30.9 53.2 23.1 4.8 94.2 96.1: 5.8 3.9
: Total Traders: 355 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 75 116 103 111 42 23 302 271:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 761,462
: Positions :
: 75,932 184,946 200,895 296,819 296,544 124,880 41,471 698,526 723,856: 62,936 37,606
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,723) :
: 1,958 -6,339 8,693 -1,978 4,650 -160 -1,576 8,513 5,428: -2,790 294
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 24.3 26.4 39.0 38.9 16.4 5.4 91.7 95.1: 8.3 4.9
: Total Traders: 370 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 95 98 132 119 37 19 310 277:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week despite weaker demand reports from private sources. Amspec estimated esports so far this month at 896,404 tons, down 15% from last month. Futures were lower today on ideas of increasing production. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was a little higher last week. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 674.00, 665.00, and 660.00 November, with resistance at 713.00, 717.00, and 738.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4470 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 16,758 :
: Positions :
: 11,984 8,464 78 4,312 760 2,624 0 180 1,072 2,992 40 :
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 :
: 1,237 2,872 0 5 -391 1,240 0 0 20 -380 -1,500 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 71.5 50.5 0.5 25.7 4.5 15.7 0.0 1.1 6.4 17.9 0.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 8 8 . 6 . . 0 . . 7 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 234,845 :
: Positions :
: 65,959 140,078 7,332 14,867 1,191 105,175 17,607 25,818 11,816 16,718 15,935 :
: Changes from: July 15, 2025 :
: 6,964 -13,048 1,043 411 -6 -16,198 4,934 1,032 -482 -807 3,250 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.1 59.6 3.1 6.3 0.5 44.8 7.5 11.0 5.0 7.1 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 342 :
: 47 95 7 4 6 68 24 27 46 82 48 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1035.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1042.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1042.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1047.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1035.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1040.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1047.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1047.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1052.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1040.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1010.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 930.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,200.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 448.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.229)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 253,498 lots, or 1.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 4,215 4,224 4,145 4,153 4,223 4,183 -40 184,312 147,626
Nov-25 4,130 4,138 4,096 4,105 4,134 4,115 -19 47,994 85,568
Jan-26 4,123 4,123 4,081 4,089 4,119 4,100 -19 16,288 29,929
Mar-26 4,100 4,108 4,071 4,080 4,105 4,090 -15 3,560 22,239
May-26 4,140 4,144 4,111 4,119 4,140 4,128 -12 701 1,430
Jul-26 4,133 4,141 4,110 4,117 4,137 4,123 -14 643 3,268
Corn
Turnover: 1,039,984 lots, or 23.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 2,308 2,330 2,291 2,319 2,314 2,313 -1 746,921 805,560
Nov-25 2,260 2,269 2,248 2,255 2,263 2,260 -3 177,981 447,869
Jan-26 2,231 2,241 2,225 2,226 2,235 2,232 -3 83,906 193,468
Mar-26 2,234 2,240 2,226 2,226 2,238 2,233 -5 20,601 89,407
May-26 2,275 2,281 2,268 2,271 2,279 2,275 -4 7,468 30,985
Jul-26 2,289 2,294 2,282 2,286 2,291 2,288 -3 3,107 8,894
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,753,576 lots, or 52.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 3,004 3,007 2,972 2,980 3,013 2,988 -25 3,566 23,560
Sep-25 3,017 3,023 2,984 2,990 3,025 3,001 -24 1,020,578 1,560,299
Nov-25 3,050 3,060 3,023 3,028 3,061 3,035 -26 114,077 624,860
Dec-25 3,085 3,091 3,059 3,063 3,092 3,071 -21 14,328 128,431
Jan-26 3,055 3,062 3,028 3,041 3,061 3,045 -16 397,604 1,281,372
Mar-26 2,927 2,928 2,902 2,916 2,922 2,919 -3 65,210 411,860
May-26 2,754 2,759 2,737 2,751 2,755 2,750 -5 124,444 641,000
Jul-26 2,742 2,742 2,728 2,733 2,736 2,735 -1 13,769 77,583
Palm Oil
Turnover: 746,377 lots, or 6.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 8,834 8,884 8,748 8,854 8,894 8,828 -66 181 1,128
Sep-25 8,936 8,980 8,828 8,946 8,984 8,916 -68 604,377 449,955
Oct-25 8,956 8,982 8,838 8,942 8,990 8,918 -72 4,825 8,156
Nov-25 8,932 8,960 8,828 8,948 8,952 8,908 -44 1,580 2,463
Dec-25 8,936 8,954 8,820 8,938 8,982 8,904 -78 198 856
Jan-26 8,940 8,962 8,814 8,932 8,972 8,900 -72 126,478 172,241
Feb-26 8,870 8,932 8,846 8,880 8,930 8,878 -52 49 940
Mar-26 8,808 8,866 8,736 8,836 8,858 8,810 -48 58 261
Apr-26 8,686 8,782 8,686 8,764 8,750 8,744 -6 14 76
May-26 8,670 8,714 8,596 8,706 8,682 8,670 -12 8,595 16,865
Jun-26 8,572 8,626 8,528 8,624 8,600 8,572 -28 11 49
Jul-26 8,612 8,628 8,530 8,624 8,602 8,596 -6 11 38
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 398,694 lots, or 32.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 8,232 8,296 8,158 8,180 8,232 8,214 -18 480 1,518
Sep-25 8,160 8,160 8,062 8,120 8,160 8,114 -46 281,245 490,324
Nov-25 8,160 8,164 8,070 8,116 8,160 8,120 -40 2,061 10,286
Dec-25 8,164 8,164 8,082 8,124 8,166 8,112 -54 41 1,820
Jan-26 8,104 8,120 8,022 8,076 8,114 8,068 -46 104,689 384,599
Mar-26 7,982 7,984 7,906 7,964 7,982 7,958 -24 73 1,237
May-26 7,736 7,754 7,684 7,738 7,746 7,720 -26 10,045 46,007
Jul-26 7,732 7,732 7,666 7,724 7,738 7,700 -38 60 136
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322