AgMaster Report – 07/23/2025

SEPT WHT

Despite weather-related pressure in corn & beans, Sept Wht is carving out a solid up day due to higher Russian Export Prices caused by their lower 2025 production! Also impressive Monday inspections -732,000 MT & a 2% reduction in the gd-ex crop rating has fueled the up! Yesterday, Bangladesh announced an annual 700,000 MT import commitment! Wht along with corn & beans have been battered down to levels cheap enough to draw significant export interest – especially with the added help of a plummeting US Dollar!

 

SEPT CORN

Last week, Sept Corn staged an impressive 20 cent rally off a “hot & dry” forecast for this week! However, since then forecasts have moderated – leading to a correction of that up-surge – also mitigated by some rain being inserted into the forecast! Weather has been almost perfect for the currently-pollinating corn & record yield forecasts have been commonplace! Also, Trump’s Aug 1 tariff deadline is looming as our trading partners seek to hammer out deals to avoid 20-30% tariff increases! Crop ratings stayed at 74% Gd-Ex. The downside gap in the above chart from early July is the nearest upside resistance! The positives are still impressive exports, a falling dollar & a mkt level that has already dialed in a lot of bearish supply news!

 

SEPT BEANS

Even though Beans crop rating dropped 2%, the mkt continued today under pressure due to the very benign weather the central farm belt has experienced since planting! Further US/China trade talks don’t seem imminent until the Fall! And Aug 1 is the date when Trump has threatened further tariff escalation if trades deals aren’t firmed up with our partners! The “good news” is that beans don’t set their pods until August & the US Dollar has fallen sharply! The mkt is plenty cheap & will respond decisively should the August weather not be as ideal as its been so far!

 

AUG CAT

Aug Cat continues its unrelenting charge to the upside – led by a strong cash mkt which is $12-14 over the futures! This cash discount along with the best demand period of the year – the grilling season – support the mkt on corrections – which lately amount to the mkt simply pausing its up! Friday, a 2pm Cattle-on-Feed report & a Cold Storage Report will provide insight as to whether herd-rebuilding has taken place yet!

 

AUG HOGS

Aug Hogs have rallied $5.00 since mid-July – deriving spillover strength from Aug Cat, strong demand from the “grilling season” & pork’s natural competitive advantage over beef in the supermarket! The mkt awaits supply info from the Cold Storage Report issued by the USDA Friday! Seasonals favor a continued up into Labor Day! The mkt is keeping a close eye on tariff negotiations as Mexico is one of the US’s largest buyers of pork!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337