Softs Report 07/22/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as the reported fund and other speculator short covering gave out and as export hopes that remain less. Growing conditions are generally good. Export sales were once again on the weak side. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 71 61 79 75
Cotton Setting Bolls 33 23 40 33
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 7 30 48 9
Cotton Last Week 7 10 29 45 9
Cotton Last Year 7 11 29 42 11

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday and closed at new highs for the move. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil is still supporting prices. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. USDA estimated Florida oranges production at 12.3 million boxes, up 3 million from the last report. The production estimates had little effect on the trade. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 200 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 292.00, 284.00, and 253.00 September, with resistance at 332.00, 338.00, and 344.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were much lower last week, with London weakening as Robusta is more available to the market and Arabica w3eakening on the Trump tariffs on Brazil and on good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to get near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 265.74 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 454 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 288.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3180, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3600, 3850, and 3960 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were much lower yesterday as the weather remains generally good around the world for crops. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the recent price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1440 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 434.00 October, with resistance at 494.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher in recovery trading yesterday after setting new lows for the move last week on the poor grind data from Europe and Asia. The North American grind showed a small reduction on Friday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7500, 7210, and 7150 September, with resistance at 8350, 8630, and 8900 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4940, 4700, and 4580 September, with resistance at 5380, 5600, and 5810 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322