Silence is Golden. Manic Metals Report 07/22/2025

They say that silence is golden and if fed officials might keep quiet it might actually be good for gold.
Yesterday, gold futures lit up the scoreboard with their strongest rally in over a month, notching the highest close we’ve seen in 14 years. But as we roll into today’s session, gold is feeling a little pressure, pulling back as traders await the next move from the Fed. All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to take the stage, and let’s be honest—the gold market is on edge about what he might say on rates.
The debate over inflation’s bite is far from settled, especially with recent CPI numbers making gold bulls a bit skittish. The Fed still has some room to keep its hawkish feathers ruffled, but with producer prices running cool and a key trade deadline on the horizon August, it might be smart for Powell to hint at a rate cut sooner rather than later.
If Powell wants to secure his spot at the helm, a dovish pivot could be his best bet—though history says don’t hold your breath. Remember, this is the same Fed chair who called inflation “transitory” and was slow to recognize the full impact of tariffs, even as he conceded the inflation evidence was far from conclusive. So for gold, the adage rings true: sometimes, silence really is golden.
Kitco Metals reports that although gold speculation is high, it’s not the primary factor in recent price movements. As of July 18, money managers raised their bullish positions by 7,972 contracts (to 172,657) and reduced shorts by 13,763 (to 22,625), leaving gold’s net length at 136,726 contracts, consistent with recent trends. Suki Cooper of Standard Chartered notes this net positioning has remained around 31% of open interest for seven weeks.
Cooper said that instead of speculative positioning, she is closely monitoring investment demand in global gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs), where inflows reached their highest level in five years during the first half of 2025. She also noted that holdings in gold ETPs remain well below the record highs set in 2020.

She talks dollar drama and gold’s starring role, folks. Suki Cooper isn’t just watching investment flows into ETPs—she’s got her eye glued to the U.S. dollar, and so should you if you’re tracking gold’s next move.
She suggests that if the greenback keeps losing steam, expect gold to find its wings.
“Right now, gold prices are playing their closest game with the dollar—check this out: a three-month rolling correlation at -70%—that’s a hefty negative relationship. Even with tariff talk cooling off, gold is still taking its cues from the buck. And although safe-haven demand isn’t breaking records, gold-watchers can’t ignore the U.S. debt monster lurking in the shadows,” Cooper notes.
She sees gold’s floor as rock solid for now, with U.S. debt worries and potential new tariffs ready to keep the yellow metal in the headlines. Bottom line: as the dollar wobbles, gold may just be gearing up for another act.
Copper is rebounding after a week overnight surge as the supply tightness continues to be the underlying reason for copper support Causing high anxiety for major copper producers.
Copper prices reached record levels after President Donald Trump announced on July 8 that the administration would soon implement a 50% tariff on copper product imports, representing a major wake up call to the global market where we have a structural shortage as the world races to increase its electricity capacity to meet demand for artificial intelligence and data centers.
The FT reported this that  the world’s largest copper producer says US tariffs are causing “anxiety” as the $250bn industry awaits details of proposed levies on the metal less than two weeks before they are due to kick in.
The FT reported that while President  Trump announced a 50 per cent tariff on copper starting August 1 but did not specify if it covers refined copper, semi-finished products, or ore.
This lack of clarity has left miners and industrial users uncertain about the details.
The FT report that
Máximo Pacheco, chair of Codelco, noted customers are anxious and want clear answers, emphasizing that free trade benefits both countries and Chile remains willing to supply refined copper to the US.”
Silver continues to be a slippery little devil. I want to trust silver but because it continues to underperform gold and copper it makes me leery, but you would think that silver is still very undervalued compared to the rest of the complex .
We expect strong physical demand for metals.
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