Softs Report 07/21/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher again yesterday as futures continue to slowly rally on reported fund and other speculator short covering despite export hopes that remain less and as growing conditions are generally good and weaker export sales. The USDA WASDE reports released a week ago showed increased ending stocks from increased production and unchanged demand. Export sales were once again on the weak side. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 247,946
: Positions :
: 28,149 78,777 58,371 67,369 84,747 82,069 15,189 235,959 237,084: 11,987 10,861
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,018) :
: 2,000 -4,260 3,969 -948 6,734 1,515 673 6,535 7,117: -518 -1,099
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.4 31.8 23.5 27.2 34.2 33.1 6.1 95.2 95.6: 4.8 4.4
: Total Traders: 321 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 108 84 73 60 46 21 247 228:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher last week. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil still resonated in the market. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. USDA estimated Florida oranges production at 12.3 million boxes, up 3 million from the last report. The production estimates had little effect on the trade. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 200 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 292.00, 284.00, and 253.00 September, with resistance at 332.00, 338.00, and 344.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,068 :
: Positions :
: 2,692 5,269 392 0 257 1,973 2,125 94 2,672 112 1,706 :
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 :
: -306 -149 -43 0 73 256 121 66 -8 -35 -206 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.3 47.6 3.5 0.0 2.3 17.8 19.2 0.8 24.1 1.0 15.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 10 7 . 0 . 7 11 4 12 . 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower last week, with London weakening as Robusta is more available to the market. President Trump’s tariffs announced for Brazil products sold in the US was blamed for the rally. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to get near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 265.74 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 101 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 454 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 288.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 308.00, 312.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 3390, 3200, and 3140 September, with resistance at 3600, 3850, and 3960 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 193,389
: Positions :
: 30,282 13,875 63,040 50,268 100,711 42,412 9,175 186,001 186,800: 7,388 6,588
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: -5,141) :
: 236 -463 -2,430 -3,945 -1,473 1,243 -732 -4,896 -5,098: -245 -43
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 7.2 32.6 26.0 52.1 21.9 4.7 96.2 96.6: 3.8 3.4
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 70 100 94 107 44 21 282 252:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week, with the best gains seen in New York and as the weather remains generally good around the world for crops. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the recent price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. China imported 420,000 metric tons of sugar in June, bringing the cumulative total for the year-to-date to 1.04 million tons, down 19.7% from the same period last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1440 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 434.00 October, with resistance at 494.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 993,882
: Positions :
: 115,389 225,636 218,443 350,312 410,887 243,980 61,504 928,124 916,470: 65,757 77,412
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 8,364) :
: 3,954 -5,621 1,508 2,262 12,749 -1,361 -1,502 6,363 7,135: 2,001 1,229
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 22.7 22.0 35.2 41.3 24.5 6.2 93.4 92.2: 6.6 7.8
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 71 82 65 63 37 20 213 186:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week and closed at new lows for the move. It was a gap and go day for both markets in response to weaker European and Asian grind data. The North American grind showed a small reduction on Friday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7180, 7060, and 6940 September, with resistance at 7590, 8100, and 8350 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4600, 4480, and 4360 September, with resistance at 5030, 5380, and 5600 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 119,006
: Positions :
: 14,884 12,076 33,704 38,923 56,445 20,187 9,732 107,698 111,957: 11,308 7,049
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,115) :
: -960 -791 1,083 1,950 1,348 -124 554 1,948 2,195: 1,166 919
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 10.1 28.3 32.7 47.4 17.0 8.2 90.5 94.1: 9.5 5.9
: Total Traders: 166 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 47 57 33 33 31 14 143 118:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322