We finally saw a little green across much of the grains this week with the cotton and hogs joining in. Cattle were more mixed as they had a choppy week. Still from an overall perspective bulls are looking at better action heading home. Is there much we can take from this? There are some technical reasons to head home this weekend in a better mood for the bulls. There are still signs of life, though there is still that one rule about dead cats! They can bounce if they fall from high enough. As with any confirmation we’ll have to wait and see if there is any follow-through.
Corn saw more green this week than red, with 4 of the 5 days posting gains and September up 12 ½ cents. December was 15 1/2 cents high this week to take back most of last week’s losses. The Monday Crop Progress report pegged the US corn crop at 34% silking as of July 13, 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Ratings were steady this week at 74% good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index at 385. Ethanol production was up another 2,000 barrels per day in the week ending on July 11 at 1.087 million barrels per day, according to EIA’s weekly. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 324,000 barrels to 23.635 million barrels. The Thursday Export Sales report showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling to a MY low at 97,600 MT for the week that ended on July 10, with new crop at 565,900 MT. Old crop commitments are now 99% of the USDA export projection and behind the average pace of 102%. Spec funds slashed 29,106 contracts from their large net short position as of Tuesday to 174,755 contracts.
The wheat complex showed minimal strength this week, with spring wheat contracts holding the bulls back. Chicago SRW futures were back up just 1 1/4, with the September KC HRW contract showing just 4 ¾ cent gains. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the bear side, with September down another 18 ¾ cents and below the $6 level. NASS Crop Progress data indicated the US spring wheat crop at 78% headed. Ratings were back up 4% to 52% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 345, up 8 points. Winter wheat harvest picked to 63% complete by last Sunday. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 494,400 MT, down from the week. Commitments so far in the marketing year are 8.259 MMT, 36% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 35% average pace. Chicago wheat specs were adding back 4,893 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday to 60,487 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 4,683 contracts to 48,002 contracts by July 15.
Soybeans got some support from all around in the last half of the week, popping more than 40 cents off the early week lows to close with August up 23 ½ cent. November was 28 ½ cents higher vs. last Friday. The product values added to some support, with August meal getting Friday gains to push the weekly move $3.70 higher. August bean oil was 207 points higher this week. NASS tallied 47% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/13. Condition ratings exploded by 4 percentage points to 70% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index up 7 at 376. NOPA reported member crush during June at 185.7 million bushels, which was a drop of 3.7% from May but still a record for June. The Thursday Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings slipping back to 241,900 MT in the week of July 10. New crop business picked up in that week to 529,600 MT. CFTC data indicated managed money expanding their fresh net short by another 26,062 contracts as of July 15th, to 32,278 contracts.
Live cattle futures held on to the gains this week with back and forth trade, as August was up $1.35. Cash trade was firm to $1 higher with the South at $230-231 and $240-241 in the North. Feeders pulled back this week, down just $1.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.09 week/week to $322.28. Wholesale boxed beef pressure continued this week, as Choice was down $5.09 (-1.3%) to $373.55, while Select was $15 (-4.1%) lower to $351.49. Weekly beef production was down 0.8% from last week and 1.4% below the same week last year at 486.8 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.3% lower on a 6.4% decline in slaughter. USDA reported net weekly beef export sales of 8,800 MT in the week ending July 10. Money managers added 4,063 contracts back to their large net long position in live cattle futures and options as of Tuesday to 132,486 contracts. In feeder cattle, specs added a few more longs to their record net long position as of July 15 at 37,569 contracts.
Hogs took back last week’s losses, with a gain of $1.80 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 49 cents this week at 107.63 as of July 16. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout extended the rebound this week another $4.32 (3.8%) to $117.79/cwt. Just the butt and rib were lower on the week, as the belly was up $17.66. Weekly pork production was down 1.1% from last week and 1.2% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 1.9% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. USDA reported weekly pork export sales were 17,100 MT in the week ending July 10. Export shipments for the week totaled 26,500 MT. CFTC data showed a decent amount on long liquidation by the large managed money crowd in the week of July 15. Their net long was down 17,186 contracts to 114,593.
Cotton saw a pop higher this week as December took back the previous week’s losses and closed up 126 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 61% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/13 and 23% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 54% good/excellent, up 2%, or 3 points higher on the Brugler500 index at 339. USDA Export Sales data showed just 5,500 RB of old crop cotton bookings in the week ending on July 10. New crop business came in at 73,000 RB. Shipments were reported. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up just 1 point this week, to 54.72 cents/lb. CFTC data indicated 7,626 contracts slashed from to the spec fund net short as of Tuesday to 36,464 contracts.
Market Watch
We kick off next week with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday per normal. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report. We round out the week on Friday, with a Cattle on Feed report from NASS and a monthly Cold storage report. August grains options also expire.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn started off the week on a good foot to be bullish. Monday was a hook reversal, missing a key reversal by a tick. While less reliable it was friendly, and more importantly we got the follow through. Over the week, we rallied to the 18-day moving average at $4.22 and closed above that on Friday. There is a cluster of resistance from here to the $4.40s. First is the 1/3 speedline (orange) at $4.30, which stopped things on Friday. Next would be a gap out of the July 4th weekend at $4.32 3/4, with a 40-day moving average (red) at $4.33 ½. The 38.2% Fib retracement resistance is $4.38 off the Feb high. Like I said, a think layer of resistance. We’re going need a little more than short covering and a warmer forecast to push through. The bull needs fed!
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Signs of Life. Ag Marketing Report 07/21/2025
We finally saw a little green across much of the grains this week with the cotton and hogs joining in. Cattle were more mixed as they had a choppy week. Still from an overall perspective bulls are looking at better action heading home. Is there much we can take from this? There are some technical reasons to head home this weekend in a better mood for the bulls. There are still signs of life, though there is still that one rule about dead cats! They can bounce if they fall from high enough. As with any confirmation we’ll have to wait and see if there is any follow-through.
Corn saw more green this week than red, with 4 of the 5 days posting gains and September up 12 ½ cents. December was 15 1/2 cents high this week to take back most of last week’s losses. The Monday Crop Progress report pegged the US corn crop at 34% silking as of July 13, 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Ratings were steady this week at 74% good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index at 385. Ethanol production was up another 2,000 barrels per day in the week ending on July 11 at 1.087 million barrels per day, according to EIA’s weekly. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 324,000 barrels to 23.635 million barrels. The Thursday Export Sales report showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling to a MY low at 97,600 MT for the week that ended on July 10, with new crop at 565,900 MT. Old crop commitments are now 99% of the USDA export projection and behind the average pace of 102%. Spec funds slashed 29,106 contracts from their large net short position as of Tuesday to 174,755 contracts.
The wheat complex showed minimal strength this week, with spring wheat contracts holding the bulls back. Chicago SRW futures were back up just 1 1/4, with the September KC HRW contract showing just 4 ¾ cent gains. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the bear side, with September down another 18 ¾ cents and below the $6 level. NASS Crop Progress data indicated the US spring wheat crop at 78% headed. Ratings were back up 4% to 52% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 345, up 8 points. Winter wheat harvest picked to 63% complete by last Sunday. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 494,400 MT, down from the week. Commitments so far in the marketing year are 8.259 MMT, 36% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 35% average pace. Chicago wheat specs were adding back 4,893 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday to 60,487 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 4,683 contracts to 48,002 contracts by July 15.
Soybeans got some support from all around in the last half of the week, popping more than 40 cents off the early week lows to close with August up 23 ½ cent. November was 28 ½ cents higher vs. last Friday. The product values added to some support, with August meal getting Friday gains to push the weekly move $3.70 higher. August bean oil was 207 points higher this week. NASS tallied 47% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/13. Condition ratings exploded by 4 percentage points to 70% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index up 7 at 376. NOPA reported member crush during June at 185.7 million bushels, which was a drop of 3.7% from May but still a record for June. The Thursday Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings slipping back to 241,900 MT in the week of July 10. New crop business picked up in that week to 529,600 MT. CFTC data indicated managed money expanding their fresh net short by another 26,062 contracts as of July 15th, to 32,278 contracts.
Live cattle futures held on to the gains this week with back and forth trade, as August was up $1.35. Cash trade was firm to $1 higher with the South at $230-231 and $240-241 in the North. Feeders pulled back this week, down just $1.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.09 week/week to $322.28. Wholesale boxed beef pressure continued this week, as Choice was down $5.09 (-1.3%) to $373.55, while Select was $15 (-4.1%) lower to $351.49. Weekly beef production was down 0.8% from last week and 1.4% below the same week last year at 486.8 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.3% lower on a 6.4% decline in slaughter. USDA reported net weekly beef export sales of 8,800 MT in the week ending July 10. Money managers added 4,063 contracts back to their large net long position in live cattle futures and options as of Tuesday to 132,486 contracts. In feeder cattle, specs added a few more longs to their record net long position as of July 15 at 37,569 contracts.
Hogs took back last week’s losses, with a gain of $1.80 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 49 cents this week at 107.63 as of July 16. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout extended the rebound this week another $4.32 (3.8%) to $117.79/cwt. Just the butt and rib were lower on the week, as the belly was up $17.66. Weekly pork production was down 1.1% from last week and 1.2% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 1.9% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. USDA reported weekly pork export sales were 17,100 MT in the week ending July 10. Export shipments for the week totaled 26,500 MT. CFTC data showed a decent amount on long liquidation by the large managed money crowd in the week of July 15. Their net long was down 17,186 contracts to 114,593.
Cotton saw a pop higher this week as December took back the previous week’s losses and closed up 126 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 61% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/13 and 23% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 54% good/excellent, up 2%, or 3 points higher on the Brugler500 index at 339. USDA Export Sales data showed just 5,500 RB of old crop cotton bookings in the week ending on July 10. New crop business came in at 73,000 RB. Shipments were reported. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up just 1 point this week, to 54.72 cents/lb. CFTC data indicated 7,626 contracts slashed from to the spec fund net short as of Tuesday to 36,464 contracts.
Market Watch
We kick off next week with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday per normal. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report. We round out the week on Friday, with a Cattle on Feed report from NASS and a monthly Cold storage report. August grains options also expire.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn started off the week on a good foot to be bullish. Monday was a hook reversal, missing a key reversal by a tick. While less reliable it was friendly, and more importantly we got the follow through. Over the week, we rallied to the 18-day moving average at $4.22 and closed above that on Friday. There is a cluster of resistance from here to the $4.40s. First is the 1/3 speedline (orange) at $4.30, which stopped things on Friday. Next would be a gap out of the July 4th weekend at $4.32 3/4, with a 40-day moving average (red) at $4.33 ½. The 38.2% Fib retracement resistance is $4.38 off the Feb high. Like I said, a think layer of resistance. We’re going need a little more than short covering and a warmer forecast to push through. The bull needs fed!
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.