Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
The Central US weather forecast is less threatening to start the week:
Central US temperature forecast are several degrees cooler than what was forecast late last week. And Ridge riding T storms will be regular across the Midwest and Northern Plains. Midwest high temperatures will reach the mid 80’s to mid 90’s, which is 2-5 degrees warmer than average . Ag Resources (ARC) does not expect heat/dryness will linger into early August with several reliable long-range models hinting at the return of seasonal temperatures with the chance of rain shifting back southward. US corn & soybean GD/EX crop condition are expected to hold steady or increase 1%.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Recovery; Early August US Forecast Important; Technical Charts Remain Heavy:
Dec CBOT corn scored a two-week high on Friday but failed to post a key weekly reversal. Coming moisture loss in KS/MO in the context of a sizable fund short (175,000 contracts as of Tuesday) is noted, but ARC cautions against chasing this rally. There’s broad agreement that dangerous heat stays away from the principal Corn Belt, and there will be no shortage of soil moisture during the remainder of July. A close above $4.40, Dec is needed to materially alter market sentiment. Safrinha corn harvesting in Mato Grosso this week is 77% complete, still behind average but the domestic market there is soon overwhelmed. ARC notes spot wholesale prices in Central Mato Grosso have fallen to $3.20-#3.25 Bu, which on margin keeps Brazilian fob offers competitive into autumn. Sunday night’s forecast is key. But ARC sees risk as leaning bearish between now and early Sep. Catch up on hedges on additional 5-10 cent rallies. The US crop should be 52-55% silking on Sunday.
Crop & Weather Forecasts Favorable. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/21/2025
The Central US weather forecast is less threatening to start the week:
Central US temperature forecast are several degrees cooler than what was forecast late last week. And Ridge riding T storms will be regular across the Midwest and Northern Plains. Midwest high temperatures will reach the mid 80’s to mid 90’s, which is 2-5 degrees warmer than average . Ag Resources (ARC) does not expect heat/dryness will linger into early August with several reliable long-range models hinting at the return of seasonal temperatures with the chance of rain shifting back southward. US corn & soybean GD/EX crop condition are expected to hold steady or increase 1%.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Recovery; Early August US Forecast Important; Technical Charts Remain Heavy:
Dec CBOT corn scored a two-week high on Friday but failed to post a key weekly reversal. Coming moisture loss in KS/MO in the context of a sizable fund short (175,000 contracts as of Tuesday) is noted, but ARC cautions against chasing this rally. There’s broad agreement that dangerous heat stays away from the principal Corn Belt, and there will be no shortage of soil moisture during the remainder of July. A close above $4.40, Dec is needed to materially alter market sentiment. Safrinha corn harvesting in Mato Grosso this week is 77% complete, still behind average but the domestic market there is soon overwhelmed. ARC notes spot wholesale prices in Central Mato Grosso have fallen to $3.20-#3.25 Bu, which on margin keeps Brazilian fob offers competitive into autumn. Sunday night’s forecast is key. But ARC sees risk as leaning bearish between now and early Sep. Catch up on hedges on additional 5-10 cent rallies. The US crop should be 52-55% silking on Sunday.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374