Softs Report 07/18/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher again yesterday as futures continue to slowly rally on reported fund and other speculator short covering despite export hopes that remain less and as growing conditions are generally good and weaker export sales. The USDA WASDE reports released on Friday showed increased ending stocks from increased production and unchanged demand. Export sales were once again on the weak side. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.22 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil is still resonating in the market. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are turning up. USDA estimated Florida oranges production at 12.3 million boxes, up 3 million from the last report. The production estimates had little effect on the trade. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 200 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 292.00, 284.00, and 253.00 September, with resistance at 320.00, 326.00, and 332.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower, with London leading the way as Robusta is more available to the market. President Trump’s tariffs announced for Brazil products sold in the US was blamed for the rally. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to expand and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 266.94 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 5 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 353 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 288.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 308.00, 312.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 3390, 3200, and 3140 September, with resistance at 3600, 3850, and 3960 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher again yesterday, even as the weather remains generally good around the world for crops. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the recent price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1440 October and resistance is at 1680, 1700, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 434.00 October, with resistance at 494.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower again and closed at new lows for the move. It was a gap and go day for both markets in response tzo weaker European grind data. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Good soil moisture in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions is encouraging strong flowering for the coming October-to-March main crop despite below-average rainfall last week.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 749 contracts. The European Cocoa Association said that the quarterly grind was 3431,762 tons, down 7.2% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7180, 7060, and 6940 September, with resistance at 7590, 8100, and 8350 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4600, 4480, and 4360 September, with resistance at 5030, 5380, and 5600 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322