Electricity intelligence. Manic Metals Report 07/15/2025

Silver market can’t decide whether sanctions are bullish or bearish initially silver was surging overnight hitting a 14 year high after getting crushed dropping over a dollar in the session after achieving that lofty level copper prices also got hit early on concerns that Trump’s sanctions would hurt demand but rebounded a bit after the stock market rallied in strong Chinese data. Even  Interior Secretary Doug Burgum   got into the metals act b by posting on x that “ Copper is CRITICAL. We need it for: – AI Data Centers – National Security- Semiconductors- Electric Grid  and his department is  onshoring our supply chains by fast-tracking mining permits.”
Obviously artificial intelligence is the main driver for copper, and this will take center stage once again as  Reuters reports that U.S. President Donald Trump will announce $70 billion in artificial-intelligence and energy investments on Tuesday, according to a White House official and a person familiar with the initiatives.
Trump will reveal details of these new initiatives at an event near Pittsburgh, where he will be joined by Republican Senator David McCormick, who is hosting the first Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit at Carnegie Mellon University.
Artificial intelligence will significantly increase copper demand. The Wall Street Journal reports that Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz copper mine in Arizona is set to start construction next year. U.S. copper prices have risen due to high demand and a proposed 50% import tariff under President Trump. Because Ivanhoe’s mine is on private land, the permitting process is more straightforward. Efforts are underway to support domestic supply chains by expediting mining permits and promoting a strong U.S. copper industry.
The Journal writes that  “If all goes as planned, Ivanhoe Electric IE -2.48%decrease; red down pointing triangle will begin construction of its Santa Cruz mine early next year and start selling copper cathodes to manufacturers before the end of 2028. That is a blink of an eye in mining, where the time between discoveries and production is often measured in decades.

The mine is on an unusually fast track as a result of being on private property along a booming industrial corridor between Phoenix and Tucson. The sooner it comes online, the better—and not just for Ivanhoe Electric’s investors.

U.S. copper prices surged to records last week ahead of the 50% tariff that President Trump has promised to impose on imports Aug. 1. Traders and analysts expect copper prices in the U.S. to remain aloft as long as the import taxes are in place, fetching a big premium to the global price set in London’s trading pits.

Even without tariffs, copper prices are expected to climb because of booming demand to build data centers, renewable-energy installations and electric cars.
More expensive copper will boost the cost of making everything from automobiles to electronics as well as building houses. There are hundreds of pounds of copper in the typical American home between electrical wiring, plumbing and appliances. The average car contains nearly a mile of copper wiring alone.

In a social-media post Wednesday night, Trump cited copper’s use in semiconductors, aircraft, ships, ammunition, radar systems and other military assets as reason for the tariff.

“Copper is the second most used material by the Department of Defense!” the president wrote. “America will, once again, build a DOMINANT Copper Industry.”

The copper tariff echoes the strategy behind the 25% steel tariff that Trump implemented in the name of national security during his first term.

The Biden administration maintained that levy, and Trump recently raised it to 50%. U.S. prices rose, which encouraged investment in electric arc furnaces and raised domestic steelmaking capacity, said Chris LaFemina, head of metals and mining research at Jefferies.    box.
A study of Ivanhoe Electric’s site determined probable reserves of 136 million metric tons of 1.08% copper, a high grade among U.S. mines. Photo: Ivanhoe Electric
As with steel, the U.S. has lost copper market share, notably to China, which has built up its smelting and refining capacity. An analysis last year by S&P Global concluded that the U.S. has enough copper in the ground to meet domestic demand, but mine and processing capacity are insufficient.

There are only two operating smelters in the U.S. Last year, about 29% of domestic copper-mine output was sent abroad for processing, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Imports of refined copper made up about 45% of U.S. supply.

Meanwhile, mine output has declined. A mine that produces nickel and copper opened in 2014 in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, but the last big copper mine to open was in 2007, when Freeport-McMoRan, the country’s largest producer, started its Safford open-pit mine east of Phoenix.

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Proposed mines in Arizona, Michigan, Montana and Minnesota have been mired in legal challenges, permitting delays or other obstacles.

“The purpose of these tariffs is to incentivize investment in downstream smelting and refining and effectively taking market share away from China,” LaFemina said. “The second step is building mine capacity, which takes much longer.”

Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz mine won’t need to send its output to a smelter. The copper oxide ore beneath its property can be separated from the rest of the rock in a process called heap leaching to produce pure copper cathodes ready to sell to manufacturers at the mine gate.

The underground mine will be equipped with a small rail system to bring 20,000 tons of earth to the surface daily for processing.

U.S. mining sites tend to be on or near public land, which can make for complicated and contentious approvals. Ivanhoe Electric’s property sits among cropland, factories and desert at a junction of highways, rail, power lines and natural-gas pipelines.

“It’s a ready-made site for an advanced copper project,” Chief Executive Taylor Melvin said.

Miners studied the site in the late 1980s but abandoned the project. In recent years, billionaire mining financier Robert Friedland launched Ivanhoe Electric to mine the property, which it bought from home builder D.R. Horton.

Two geologists examine core samples.
Geologists examine core samples as part of the more than $100 million Ivanhoe Electric spent studying its planned mine.   Photo: Ivanhoe Electric
Ivanhoe Electric filed a 272-page preliminary feasibility study with regulators late last month, starting the race to production. The document was the culmination of more than $100 million of study, engineering and drilling. It determined a mine life of 23 years, with an average estimated annual copper production during the first 15 years of 72,000 tons. That would make it one of the country’s most prolific mines.

The expected average cost of production is $1.32 a pound, compared with recent market prices greater than $5.50.
The Arizona company is using the study to solicit additional equity investors, negotiate with lenders and get permits from state, county and city officials in nearby Casa Grande, said Melvin, a former JPMorgan investment banker and Freeport-McMoRan executive.  “That’s a much more straightforward permitting process,” he said. “To avoid the federal permitting process is a huge advantage.”   President Trump claimed that the U.S. made $25 billion last month, which he partially credited to tariffs.
Copper today after getting beat up yesterday the fact that president trump’s big announcement on Russian tariffs had a 50 day window for negotiations today copper should get support from the fact that Chinese economic data came out much stronger than expected along with the big uptick in their industrial production numbers and while China didn’t announce any big stimulus one would assume that the copper market is going to like the fact that is moving.
Remember China’s government was expanding their strategic reserves of copper to secure supply amid geopolitical uncertainty and trade risks reports that China is buying more electric cars than internal combustion engines also is giving the copper market support.
Some analysts even expect a 75% increase in global copper demand of 56,000,000 tonnes by 2050 with China as the key driver..

Gold had a wild ride! After hitting a three-week high on Monday, prices dipped just a bit as everyone’s eyes stayed glued to trade talks and what’s up with the U.S. economy.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar flexed its muscles and climbed to a nearly three-week high, which means anyone buying gold with other currencies is probably grumbling just a little. We have of course meant those central bank buyers that are fixated on the Trump tariffs and how to avoid a potential trade war. Also take its cue from today’s inflation data the CPI could be key to gold’s next big move
Make sure you keep up with the latest on the news by saying tune to the Fox Business Network you can also sign up for the Phil Flynn daily energy report trade levels and everything else, but you can also call me at 888-264-5665 or e-mail me at PFlynn@pricegroup.com