50 Days Is Forever. The Energy Report 07/15/2025

On top of that, 50 days would give countries that wanted to secure oil from Russia like India and China time to build up supplies before the hammer came down. It would  allow Europe to continue to buy heavy oil to build up supplies before winter.

In other words, President Trump’s 50-day window will allow other countries to secure sufficient supplies to meet their winter demand. Which could lead to a buying binge which actually is more supportive than not.

Despite traders’ disappointment affecting oil prices, underlying fundamentals remain strong. Before President Trump threatened tougher sanctions on Russia, oil was already bullish. Currently, support comes from China’s economy surpassing expectations with a 5.2% GDP increase in Q2. China’s industrial output rose 6.8%, exceeding forecasts, while retail sales grew by 4.8%, falling short of expectations. The data highlights a two-speed economy where supply outpaces consumer demand. Fixed-asset investment increased 2.8% year-on-year but missed consensus estimates. This number was boosted by the fact that President Trump eased trade tariffs on China.

This coincided with the report that Chinese refiners ran at the highest level in nearly two years according to data released by Bloomberg. They put Chinese refineries run rates at 15.2 million barrels a day and that was up 8.5% from last year.

That is a huge rebound when the combination of seasonal maintenance and Trump tariffs caused Chinese refineries to drop to a rate of under 40 million barrels a day coming in exactly at 13.92 million barrels a day which at that point was the lowest level in over a year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that he will not rush any trade agreements in response to market deadlines, advising market participants not to be concerned about the August 12th deadline. He is also scheduled to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks. According to Secretary Bessent, relations with China are in a good place. The Trump Administration’s decision to permit additional NVIDIA chip exports to China is described as part of an ongoing series of negotiations between the two countries.

Concerns over an EU trade conflict are delayed, as no countermeasures are set until August. Today the US and EU are going to negotiate so there’s a possibility that the sanctions between the EU and the United States will happen at all.

There is currently an energy shortage, but the Trump administration is taking action to address it. According to Reuters, President Trump will announce $70 billion in artificial intelligence and energy investments, with specifics to be revealed at an event near Pittsburgh alongside Senator David McCormick. The investments will fund new data centers and upgrades to the power grid. Axios first reported the $70 billion figure. Trump also plans to tout nuclear energy as a reliable and dense power source long hindered by regulations, is set for renewed development under this administration.

The oil market may react to today’s inflation data, as a hotter-than-expected consumer price index could delay anticipated Fed rate cuts. Ongoing political tensions, including President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, add further interest to the release. I’m sure Chairman Powell is rooting for inflation to justify his past inaction. But the reality is the expectation to see whether inflation, because of tariffs, has so far been proven to be wrong and again it comes down to a distinct misunderstanding of what causes inflation.

Regardless the pause gave some relief and the diesel crack pulled back and the gasoline crack spread also pulled back a bit. Today we’re going to get the weekly inventory numbers from the US and our expectations of draws across the board should give the market a little bit of support. We expect to see another big rebound in gasoline demand and the big surge in gasoline exports which mysteriously dropped dramatically last week probably due to weather.

Natural gas started to rally as we started to put some heat back into the forecast and the expectations that global demand for LNG is going to continue to rise especially with the fast tracking of approvals from the Trump Administration.

Fox Weather reported that a large area of disturbed weather off the Southeast coast will move west over Florida and bring periods of heavy rain and a flash flood threat to the Sunshine State through Tuesday. This system is infused with lots of tropical moisture and has the potential to become a tropical depression, as it tracks into the Gulf later this week. The area of storms being monitored was designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center on Monday. An invest is a designation used by the NHC to indicate an area that is under increased scrutiny for the possibility of tropical development. According to the FOX Forecast Center, tropical moisture will enhance the intensity of the slow-moving storms over Florida. This means they could be capable of producing 1–3 inches of rain per hour.

Make sure you download the fox weather app to keep up on this storm and other storms during the hurricane season you should also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they are invested in you.

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