Softs Report 07/14/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week in choppy trading as export hopes remain less and as growing conditions are generally good. The USDA WASDE reports showed increased ending stocks from increased production and unchanged demand. Export sales were once again on the weak side. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.52 ct/lb. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 226 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Jul 11
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2024/2025 2025/2026
prev Jul 11 prev Jul 11
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 11.18 11.18 9.87 * 10.12 **
Harvested 7.81 7.81 8.19 * 8.66 **
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 886 886 820 * 809 **
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.15 3.15 4.40 4.10
Production 14.41 14.41 14.00 14.60
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 17.57 17.57 18.41 18.71
Domestic use 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Exports, total 11.50 11.80 12.50 12.50
Use, total 13.20 13.50 14.20 14.20
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.10 -0.10
Ending stocks 4.40 4.10 4.30 4.60
Avg. farm price 3/ 63.00 63.00 62.00 62.00
==========================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season’s supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton. *Planted area as reported in March 31, 2025 Prospective
Plantings. Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region,
with the Southwest and Delta adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield
based on 5-year average yields by region, with the Delta adjusted to reflect
delayed planting. **Planted area as reported in June 30, 2025 Acreage.
Harvested area based on 10-year average abandonment by region, with the
Southwest, Delta and Southeast adjusted to reflect moisture conditions. Yield
based on 5-year average yields by region, with additional reductions for the
Delta and Southwest.

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2025/26 Proj.
World
Jun 77.29 116.99 44.82 117.76 44.79 -0.25 76.80
Jul 76.78 118.42 44.68 118.12 44.69 -0.25 77.32
World Less China
Jun 40.17 86.99 38.32 81.26 44.69 -0.25 39.78
Jul 39.94 87.42 38.88 81.62 44.61 -0.25 40.25
United States
Jun 4.40 14.00 0.01 1.70 12.50 -0.10 4.30
Jul 4.10 14.60 0.01 1.70 12.50 -0.10 4.60
Total Foreign
Jun 72.89 102.99 44.81 116.06 32.29 -0.15 72.50
Jul 72.68 103.82 44.68 116.42 32.19 -0.15 72.72
Major Exporters 4/
Jun 26.12 58.72 4.45 35.52 28.23 -0.15 25.68
Jul 26.17 58.65 4.45 35.52 28.18 -0.15 25.71
Major Importers 8/
Jun 44.39 40.94 37.23 75.72 2.52 0.00 44.32
Jul 44.13 41.84 37.09 76.08 2.47 0.00 44.51
================================================================================
WASDE – 662 – 28 July 2025

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 241,928
: Positions :
: 26,149 83,036 54,402 68,317 78,013 80,554 14,516 229,423 229,967: 12,505 11,961
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,327) :
: 721 2,467 1,776 2,714 -99 160 568 5,372 4,712: -44 615
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 34.3 22.5 28.2 32.2 33.3 6.0 94.8 95.1: 5.2 4.9
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 115 86 74 60 46 23 249 235:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher to limit up for the second half of the week in response to news that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells oa lot into the US. Trends are turning up. USDA estimated Florida oranges production at 12.3 million boxes, up 3 million from the last report. The production estimates had little effect on the trade. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 200 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 264.00, 253.00, and 245.00 September, with resistance at 288.00, 296.00, and 302.00 September.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is
2.54 million tons, up 3 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent
from the 2023-2024 utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
12.2 million boxes (547,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast
but down 33 percent from last season’s utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.60 million boxes
(207,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 32 percent from
last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at
7.55 million boxes (340,000 tons), is up 2 percent from the previous forecast
but down 33 percent from last season’s utilization.
The California all orange forecast at 49.0 million boxes (1.96 million tons),
is up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent from last
season’s revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is
41.0 million boxes (1.64 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous
forecast and up 7 percent from last season’s revised utilization. The
California Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons),
up 7 percent from the previous forecast and up 13 percent from last season’s
revised utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 850,000 boxes
(37,000 tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast and
down 28 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,068 :
: Positions :
: 2,692 5,269 392 0 257 1,973 2,125 94 2,672 112 1,706 :
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 :
: -306 -149 -43 0 73 256 121 66 -8 -35 -206 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.3 47.6 3.5 0.0 2.3 17.8 19.2 0.8 24.1 1.0 15.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 10 7 . 0 . 7 11 4 12 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week on ideas with London the weaker market. President Trump announced new tariffs of 50% on imports from Brazil, but the news had little effect on prices. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to expand and is expected to be less this year as news reports indicate that many cherries have fallen from the trees. Vietnam exported 943,000 tons of coffee in the January-June period, up 4.1% from the same period last year Brazil exported 133,863 tons of green coffee in June, down 34% from the 203,278 tons in the same month last year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 252.46 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 79 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 270.00, 264.00, and 25800 September, and resistance is at 294.00, 302.00 and 328.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3200, 3140, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3460, 3600, and 3750 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 198,530
: Positions :
: 30,046 14,338 65,470 54,213 102,184 41,168 9,907 190,897 191,899: 7,633 6,631
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,269) :
: 906 -109 4,251 1,041 -209 199 1,457 6,396 5,390: -127 879
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 7.2 33.0 27.3 51.5 20.7 5.0 96.2 96.7: 3.8 3.3
: Total Traders: 333 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 71 104 92 107 44 21 279 258:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were a little higher last week and closed near the highs for the week as the market holds at stronger levels even with the weather remains generally good around the world for crops. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the recent price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. Sugarcane used to produce sugar in the Center-South region of Brazil rose to 51.5% in the first half of June, up from 49.7% a year earlier. Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, up 5.2% from the 3.19 million tons in the same month last year. Pakistan plans to import 500,000 metric tons of sugar to help to maintain price stability, the country’s food security ministry said.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1440 October and resistance is at 1680, 1700, and 1730 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 434.00 October, with resistance at 494.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2023/24 2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj. 2025/26 Proj.
Item Jun Jul
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1843 2131 2045 2132
Production 2/ 9313 9295 9254 9195
Beet Sugar 5172 5322 5150 5097
Cane Sugar 4141 3973 4104 4098
Florida 2079 1929 2016 2010
Louisiana 2022 2045 2088 2088
Texas 40 0 0 0
Imports 3840 2956 2474 2481
TRQ 3/ 1788 1533 1419 1419
Other Program 4/ 300 200 200 200
Non-program 1752 1224 855 861
Mexico 521 497 669 439
High-tier tariff/other 1231 727 186 422
Total Supply 14995 14382 13773 13808
Exports 249 100 100 100
Deliveries 12534 12150 12230 12065
Food 12428 12045 12125 11960
Other 5/ 106 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 0 0 0
Total Use 12864 12250 12330 12165
Ending Stocks 2131 2132 1443 1643
Stocks to Use Ratio 16.6 17.4 11.7 13.5
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2024/25 Est.
Jun 1418 4774 175 4553 743 1071
Jul 1418 4770 175 4459 806 1098
2025/26 Proj.
Jun 1071 5094 142 4569 657 1081
Jul 1098 5094 142 4569 684 1081
================================================================================
WASDE – 662 – 17 July 2025

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 985,518
: Positions :
: 111,435 231,257 216,935 348,050 398,137 245,341 63,006 921,761 909,335: 63,757 76,183
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,951) :
: 3,028 -1,985 8,979 1,059 -1,472 -1,193 2,067 11,874 7,590: -1,923 2,361
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 23.5 22.0 35.3 40.4 24.9 6.4 93.5 92.3: 6.5 7.7
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 75 86 64 60 36 21 213 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week after a week of choppy trading. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Good soil moisture in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions is encouraging strong flowering for the coming October-to-March main crop despite below-average rainfall last week.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 749 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 8300, 7780, and 7640 September, with resistance at 9290, 9450, and 10530 September. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5080, 4960, and 4900 September, with resistance at 5600, 5800, and 6000 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 08, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 115,892
: Positions :
: 15,844 12,867 32,621 36,973 55,097 20,312 9,177 105,750 109,762: 10,142 6,130
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 (Change in open interest: 4,684) :
: -529 -408 2,510 2,687 1,750 -86 765 4,581 4,616: 104 68
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 11.1 28.1 31.9 47.5 17.5 7.9 91.2 94.7: 8.8 5.3
: Total Traders: 165 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 45 43 56 34 36 30 13 143 117:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322