Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment Of Traders report showed a week of light buying across the principal ag markets, where they covered 7,477 contracts of Chicago wheat and bought 3,426 contracts in Minneapolis for the first time in over a year. Light short covering was also noted in corn and soybean meal. Fund liquidated the remainder of net long soybean position and were net short 6,216 contracts. Funds also liquidated market length in soybean oil, hogs, and live cattle. Funds bought 3,607 feeder cattle contracts for a record large net long of 34,743. Across 10 markets, funds bought 4,462, trimming the net short to 102,746. However, the overhaul bearishness looks to overwhelm bullishness in soybean oil and cattle markets in the coming months.
US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Expands into IL & IN: Central Plains IA Stay Wet; More Flash Flooding in Kerrville, Texas, Suspends Search & Recovery:
CBOT corn futures on Friday ignored the USDA’s tightening of US supply & demand in part because of nearly ideal US Corn Belt weather. Negative soil moisture anomalies are currently confined to N IL and ND, and issues in Illinois will be eased in the next 5-7 days. The EU, GFS, and AI models have all trended wetter in the eastern Midwest and while more is needed in IN, KY, and O, additional soaking rain is probable in W & N IL. NOAA’s updated 7-day precipitation forecasts of adequate surplus soil moisture is noteworthy. Forecasts are also completely void of heat into July 25th . In fact, max temps next week from NE to OH will be no longer higher than 82-84 degrees. Lows in the upper 60’s will be widespread. It’s less tight old crop corn stocks and much more 16+ Bil Bu forthcoming that’s driving price discovery.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Quick July USDA-WASDE Update:
USDA’s adjustment to US corn supply and demand were supportive, on paper, as larger projected old crop exports more than and as USDA’s new crop stocks forecast was trimmed 90 Mil Bu. However, it’s clear the trade isn’t convinced that 25/26 exports will reach USDA’s projected 2,675 Mil Bu without Chinese demand – and amid record South American – production – and most important in the near term is just how big is big with regards to 2025 production. Ag Resources (ARC) now pegs 2025 US yield at 184 BPA, just 1% above the linear trend. This adds 265 Mil Bu to US supply number. Without Chinese demand (ARC 1), US are forecast to drop to 2.3 Mil Bu, and even assuming China returns US corn stocks in 25/26 will be slightly below 2.0 Bil. Mother Nature’s performance in both Hemispheres since winter is noteworthy and triggers an oversupplied market during the autumn months. ARC also notes yields ideas will move higher if crop ratings stay above 70% GD/EX into the first week of August.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Funds Position Harvest-Weather- EU & Russian Tariff Talk. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/14/2025
We kickoff the day with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment Of Traders report showed a week of light buying across the principal ag markets, where they covered 7,477 contracts of Chicago wheat and bought 3,426 contracts in Minneapolis for the first time in over a year. Light short covering was also noted in corn and soybean meal. Fund liquidated the remainder of net long soybean position and were net short 6,216 contracts. Funds also liquidated market length in soybean oil, hogs, and live cattle. Funds bought 3,607 feeder cattle contracts for a record large net long of 34,743. Across 10 markets, funds bought 4,462, trimming the net short to 102,746. However, the overhaul bearishness looks to overwhelm bullishness in soybean oil and cattle markets in the coming months.
US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Expands into IL & IN: Central Plains IA Stay Wet; More Flash Flooding in Kerrville, Texas, Suspends Search & Recovery:
CBOT corn futures on Friday ignored the USDA’s tightening of US supply & demand in part because of nearly ideal US Corn Belt weather. Negative soil moisture anomalies are currently confined to N IL and ND, and issues in Illinois will be eased in the next 5-7 days. The EU, GFS, and AI models have all trended wetter in the eastern Midwest and while more is needed in IN, KY, and O, additional soaking rain is probable in W & N IL. NOAA’s updated 7-day precipitation forecasts of adequate surplus soil moisture is noteworthy. Forecasts are also completely void of heat into July 25th . In fact, max temps next week from NE to OH will be no longer higher than 82-84 degrees. Lows in the upper 60’s will be widespread. It’s less tight old crop corn stocks and much more 16+ Bil Bu forthcoming that’s driving price discovery.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Quick July USDA-WASDE Update:
USDA’s adjustment to US corn supply and demand were supportive, on paper, as larger projected old crop exports more than and as USDA’s new crop stocks forecast was trimmed 90 Mil Bu. However, it’s clear the trade isn’t convinced that 25/26 exports will reach USDA’s projected 2,675 Mil Bu without Chinese demand – and amid record South American – production – and most important in the near term is just how big is big with regards to 2025 production. Ag Resources (ARC) now pegs 2025 US yield at 184 BPA, just 1% above the linear trend. This adds 265 Mil Bu to US supply number. Without Chinese demand (ARC 1), US are forecast to drop to 2.3 Mil Bu, and even assuming China returns US corn stocks in 25/26 will be slightly below 2.0 Bil. Mother Nature’s performance in both Hemispheres since winter is noteworthy and triggers an oversupplied market during the autumn months. ARC also notes yields ideas will move higher if crop ratings stay above 70% GD/EX into the first week of August.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374