Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We end 2nd week of July with Crop Production, USDSA Supply & Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell for the 4th consecutive week, declining by 5,000 jobs to a 7-week low of 227,000. This beat market expectations, which had called for a 200,000-job increase to 235,000. The jobs numbers across various reports continue to defy conventional wisdom that had said the US economy would implode following Washington’s broad-ranging tariff policies. Instead, the labor market has held up relatively well despite the Fed’s unwillingness to lower interest rates. US stock indexes rallied following the report release, and the US dollar index strengthened.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Models Agree on Improved Illinois Rain Chances; Drought Nearly Eliminated from Central Plains:
The principal forecasting models are consistent in advertising moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across IL over the next 5 days, with northern IL favored with accumulation of 1.0-1.75”. Lesser totals impact IN & OH, but it’s IL where longer term deficits are the highest. The forecast leans favorable, but close attention will be paid to radar/map rain gauges in IL during the weekend. Otherwise, additional precipitation is forecast in E KS, MO, IA, and WI into mid- next week. The coming abundance of rainfall in the western and central Corn Belt keeps temps slightly below average, with max temps in most areas projected no higher than the mid-80’s. Highs in the 90’s will be confined to pockets of TX, OK, and KS.
Black Sea Weather Pattern Discussion
Incoming Russian Heat; Risk Centered on Corn Production:
A pattern of dryness and incredible heat is forecast across far eastern Ukraine and Europe into July 25th . Black Sea rainfall through the period stays north of the major corn producing areas of Russia and heat of major producing areas in Ukraine. Ukrainian soil moisture is still broadly adequate where corn is most concentrated, but it’s Russia that faces renewed yield concerns. The EU model’s max temp forecast in the Black Sea on July 13th, shows highs of 100-103 are forecast across the entirety of Russia’s corn belt., and highs in the 90’s/low 100’s will persist into the middle part of next week. Ag Resources (ARC) expects Russian corn production at 12-13 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s projected 15. Exports will be no longer than 2.5 MMT’s, vs. USDA projected 3.6. This does not materially alter the world corn balance but along corn yield challenges in Europe does raise combined EU/Black Sea wheat & barley feed demand in 2025/26
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stable Ahead of USDA/WASDE July Report; Cash Sorghum Below $3.00/Bu:
CBOT corn ended flat for a second day. The catalyst for relative strength on Thursday was export sales in the week ending July 3rd of 50 Mil Bu, an 8-week high and just 21 Mil/Bu in the same week a year ago. Total US exports commitments exceeded USDA’s annual export forecast by 80 Mil Bu,, an upward revision of 100 Mil Bu is possible today. Firm Brazilian & Ukrainian premiums continue to funnel importer demand to the US. Tight old crop US stocks have lent support at $3.95-$4.00 initial chart support. ARC’s longer-term view is unchanged . The addition of rainfall to IL in 5-day forecast and lack of Midwest heat are cited as contributing factors. Competition for feed will be incredibly steep as both HRW and sorghum basis in C KS sits $1.15/Bu under Sept CBOT corn – or at $2.84/Bu. Reward post USDA strength with catch up sales. Corn’s down trend resumes second half of July as southern harvests approach. Old crop tightness in the US becomes irrelevant as Gulf States new crop harvest starts in a few weeks.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
July WASDE Sets Tone for Harvest Price Discovery. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/11/2025
We end 2nd week of July with Crop Production, USDSA Supply & Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell for the 4th consecutive week, declining by 5,000 jobs to a 7-week low of 227,000. This beat market expectations, which had called for a 200,000-job increase to 235,000. The jobs numbers across various reports continue to defy conventional wisdom that had said the US economy would implode following Washington’s broad-ranging tariff policies. Instead, the labor market has held up relatively well despite the Fed’s unwillingness to lower interest rates. US stock indexes rallied following the report release, and the US dollar index strengthened.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Models Agree on Improved Illinois Rain Chances; Drought Nearly Eliminated from Central Plains:
The principal forecasting models are consistent in advertising moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across IL over the next 5 days, with northern IL favored with accumulation of 1.0-1.75”. Lesser totals impact IN & OH, but it’s IL where longer term deficits are the highest. The forecast leans favorable, but close attention will be paid to radar/map rain gauges in IL during the weekend. Otherwise, additional precipitation is forecast in E KS, MO, IA, and WI into mid- next week. The coming abundance of rainfall in the western and central Corn Belt keeps temps slightly below average, with max temps in most areas projected no higher than the mid-80’s. Highs in the 90’s will be confined to pockets of TX, OK, and KS.
Black Sea Weather Pattern Discussion
Incoming Russian Heat; Risk Centered on Corn Production:
A pattern of dryness and incredible heat is forecast across far eastern Ukraine and Europe into July 25th . Black Sea rainfall through the period stays north of the major corn producing areas of Russia and heat of major producing areas in Ukraine. Ukrainian soil moisture is still broadly adequate where corn is most concentrated, but it’s Russia that faces renewed yield concerns. The EU model’s max temp forecast in the Black Sea on July 13th, shows highs of 100-103 are forecast across the entirety of Russia’s corn belt., and highs in the 90’s/low 100’s will persist into the middle part of next week. Ag Resources (ARC) expects Russian corn production at 12-13 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s projected 15. Exports will be no longer than 2.5 MMT’s, vs. USDA projected 3.6. This does not materially alter the world corn balance but along corn yield challenges in Europe does raise combined EU/Black Sea wheat & barley feed demand in 2025/26
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stable Ahead of USDA/WASDE July Report; Cash Sorghum Below $3.00/Bu:
CBOT corn ended flat for a second day. The catalyst for relative strength on Thursday was export sales in the week ending July 3rd of 50 Mil Bu, an 8-week high and just 21 Mil/Bu in the same week a year ago. Total US exports commitments exceeded USDA’s annual export forecast by 80 Mil Bu,, an upward revision of 100 Mil Bu is possible today. Firm Brazilian & Ukrainian premiums continue to funnel importer demand to the US. Tight old crop US stocks have lent support at $3.95-$4.00 initial chart support. ARC’s longer-term view is unchanged . The addition of rainfall to IL in 5-day forecast and lack of Midwest heat are cited as contributing factors. Competition for feed will be incredibly steep as both HRW and sorghum basis in C KS sits $1.15/Bu under Sept CBOT corn – or at $2.84/Bu. Reward post USDA strength with catch up sales. Corn’s down trend resumes second half of July as southern harvests approach. Old crop tightness in the US becomes irrelevant as Gulf States new crop harvest starts in a few weeks.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374