Grains Report 07/10/2025

DJ Brazilian Ag Agency Forecasts New Record-Large Crop — Market Talk
0942 ET – Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab issues new projections for a record-large crop. Brazil is expected to produce 339.6 million tons of grain, up 14% from the previous year. It’s a record-sized return, with soybeans and corn both contributing as much as 15% more than they did last year. Soybean production is projected at 169.5 million tons for the year, and corn production is seen at 132 million tons. Before the report’s release, Marex analyst Terry Reilly had forecast Brazilian soybean production at 170.5 million tons, with corn at 129.7 million tons (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2025 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2024
Corn Production 15,748 15,624-15,953 15,820 14,867
Soybean Production 4,331 4,290-4,340 4,340 4,366

Corn Yield 181.1 180.0-182.5 181.0 179.3
Soybean Yield 52.5 52.0-52.5 52.5 50.7
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,342 1,300-1,415 1,365
Soybeans 358 329-380 350
Wheat 848 840-851 841

2025-26
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,733 1,630-1,856 1,750
Soybeans 304 275-377 295
Wheat 893 842-923 898
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 286.2 284.7-290.0 285.0
Soybeans 124.3 123.1-126.5 124.2
Wheat 264.3 264.0-265.0 264.0
2025-26
Average Range USDA June
Corn 276.8 275.0-280.0 275.2
Soybeans 125.5 124.3-126.0 125.3
Wheat 264.7 260.7-276.0 262.8
****
2025-26 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2024-25
All Wheat 1,903 1,846-1,956 1,921 1,971
Winter Wheat 1,349 1,297-1,401 1,382 1,349
Hard Red Winter 767 735-792 782 770
Soft Red Winter 338 309-353 345 342
White Winter 249 239-256 254 236
Other Spring 477 443-540 N/A 542
Durum 78 70-85 N/A 80
****
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 132.9 130.0-138.0 130.0
Soybeans 169.4 168.8-171.0 169.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 50.0 49.0-50.5 50.0
Soybeans 49.3 49.0-50.0 49.0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 10
For the week ended Jul 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 567.8 9.4 7745.9 7121.1 6009.6 9.4
hrw 202.7 0.0 2919.4 1747.7 2150.0 0.0
srw 43.9 9.4 1283.6 1122.8 1081.8 9.4
hrs 176.4 0.0 2258.3 2445.5 1755.8 0.0
white 112.0 0.0 1156.0 1685.2 915.5 0.0
durum 32.8 0.0 128.6 119.9 106.4 0.0
corn 1262.1 888.6 69369.3 54273.5 11466.2 5422.6
soybeans 503.0 248.4 50439.3 44822.3 4182.0 1836.6
soymeal 207.7 370.8 14771.4 13122.4 3334.1 1391.2
soyoil 4.0 0.0 1071.6 198.3 59.0 13.3
upland cotton 75.1 81.5 11794.8 12992.3 1358.2 1900.4
pima cotton 3.4 2.6 458.3 348.3 53.8 28.6
sorghum 17.0 0.0 1686.8 5567.7 138.1 0.3
barley 0.0 0.0 57.2 19.3 50.7 0.0
rice 16.4 33.3 3089.3 3449.3 374.8 82.6

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul 11, 2025 148 Jul 09, 2025
ROUGH RICE July Jul 11, 2025 5 Jul 07, 2025
CORN July Jul 11, 2025 37 Jul 02, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul 11, 2025 16 Jul 02, 2025
SOYBEAN July Jul 11, 2025 308 Jul 02, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed lower yesterday, as growing and harvesting conditions were very good amid improved weather conditions. Strong yields are reported for crops in HRW and SRW areas. It had been hot and dry to the south, but the north saw rains last week to support Spring Wheat development. Southern areas are now seeing some rains and cooler temperatures this week. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, and Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada are generally in good condition.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up Support is at 535, 521 and 508 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 521, 516, and 504 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday on speculative short covering and perhaps some new buying from commercials. Weaker Asian prices are still around and are still a drag on US futures, but the US trade depends much more on South American competition that has actually been offering less. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good and the ratings by USDA are above last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1276, 1266, and 1254 September and resistance is at 1333, 1369, and 1392 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday as the weather forecasts remained cooler this week and as President Trump released no news on Chinese trade relations. Reduced heat and some showers are expected in the Midwest this week, but temperatures could turn warmer this weekend. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area, but the drought area is shrinking. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong but has turned weaker in the last few weeks. Oats were lower
Overnight News: Unknown destination bought 110,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 396, 393, and 390 September, and resistance is at 426, 432, and 439 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 360, 349, and 339 September, and resistance is at 394, 400, and 406 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday on good growing conditions in the Midwest. Soybean Oil was a little higher. Lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market are still important to the US price action. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1017, 1005, and 983 August, and resistance is at 1064, 1068, and 1072 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 August, and resistance is at 287.00, 291.00, and 294.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5150, 5080, and 4920 August, with resistance at 5600, 5720, and 5840 August.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday on the MPOB report tha showed increased stocks levels. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 683.00, 679.00, and 665.00 November, with resistance at 740.00, 752.00, and 764.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4080, 4010, and 3960 September, with resistance at 4210, 4270, and 4310 September.

DJ Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.26M Tons; Down 11%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 11% on month at 1.26 million metric tons in June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:
June May Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,692,310 1,771,621 Dn 4.48%
Palm Oil Exports 1,259,354 1,407,411 Dn 10.52%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 86,173 119,020 Dn 27.6%
Palm Oil Imports 70,015 68,971 Up 1.51%
Closing Stocks 2,030,580 1,982,759 Up 2.41%
Crude Palm Oil 1,041,740 1,101,387 Dn 5.42%
Processed Palm Oil 988,840 881,372 Up 12.19%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1015.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1015.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1017.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1025.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1020.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1020.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1022.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1030.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 992.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 902.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,150.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 407.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2455)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,435 lots, or 4.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 4,150 4,150 4,150 0 0 1,439
Sep-25 4,112 4,120 4,098 4,105 4,112 4,110 -2 93,368 195,052
Nov-25 4,048 4,050 4,034 4,042 4,048 4,042 -6 11,486 69,558
Jan-26 4,035 4,035 4,017 4,027 4,033 4,025 -8 8,244 25,220
Mar-26 4,023 4,026 4,010 4,020 4,027 4,018 -9 3,257 23,094
May-26 4,055 4,061 4,043 4,056 4,059 4,051 -8 80 826
Corn
Turnover: 495,333 lots, or 11.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 2,296 2,296 2,296 0 2 3
Sep-25 2,317 2,325 2,313 2,320 2,322 2,318 -4 382,569 1,005,818
Nov-25 2,271 2,281 2,268 2,275 2,275 2,272 -3 78,617 386,265
Jan-26 2,234 2,241 2,229 2,235 2,237 2,233 -4 24,744 131,680
Mar-26 2,235 2,242 2,231 2,238 2,238 2,235 -3 6,822 77,872
May-26 2,265 2,272 2,260 2,268 2,266 2,264 -2 2,579 24,674
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,724,256 lots, or 50.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 2,802 2,802 2,802 0 0 2,016
Aug-25 2,920 2,942 2,912 2,937 2,921 2,925 4 47,053 103,863
Sep-25 2,940 2,960 2,928 2,954 2,940 2,943 3 1,086,977 2,075,754
Nov-25 2,980 2,999 2,967 2,991 2,981 2,983 2 107,586 645,646
Dec-25 3,018 3,020 3,002 3,014 3,016 3,011 -5 21,135 121,326
Jan-26 2,994 3,000 2,978 2,993 2,992 2,988 -4 285,177 1,149,774
Mar-26 2,850 2,864 2,845 2,858 2,854 2,854 0 65,259 372,379
May-26 2,702 2,708 2,696 2,704 2,703 2,701 -2 111,069 545,584
Palm Oil
Turnover: 711,863 lots, or 61.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 8,620 8,620 8,620 0 0 384
Aug-25 8,696 8,710 8,620 8,664 8,676 8,664 -12 5,255 4,648
Sep-25 8,652 8,678 8,588 8,638 8,656 8,628 -28 636,450 505,365
Oct-25 8,666 8,672 8,586 8,638 8,656 8,628 -28 1,678 4,965
Nov-25 8,644 8,644 8,570 8,618 8,626 8,606 -20 116 1,001
Dec-25 8,634 8,638 8,576 8,606 8,626 8,606 -20 82 580
Jan-26 8,622 8,650 8,568 8,616 8,634 8,602 -32 64,568 149,964
Feb-26 8,560 8,586 8,538 8,580 8,592 8,574 -18 30 933
Mar-26 8,502 8,544 8,490 8,534 8,540 8,520 -20 74 295
Apr-26 8,438 8,490 8,436 8,472 8,494 8,452 -42 19 98
May-26 8,412 8,432 8,358 8,420 8,434 8,400 -34 3,569 8,182
Jun-26 8,378 8,386 8,328 8,384 8,406 8,368 -38 22 50
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 387,827 lots, or 30.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 7,970 8,038 7,970 -68 0 1,200
Aug-25 7,900 7,948 7,896 7,920 7,902 7,924 22 4,920 10,311
Sep-25 7,912 7,958 7,898 7,944 7,922 7,928 6 289,906 501,637
Nov-25 7,930 7,964 7,916 7,948 7,936 7,942 6 1,629 5,798
Dec-25 7,966 7,982 7,942 7,982 7,962 7,962 0 39 1,573
Jan-26 7,906 7,936 7,874 7,922 7,916 7,906 -10 83,580 300,678
Mar-26 7,824 7,918 7,792 7,824 7,818 7,820 2 353 1,201
May-26 7,600 7,622 7,572 7,598 7,594 7,592 -2 7,400 31,398
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322