Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks and NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0-1 years at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index climbed to 208.5 in June, marking a 6.3% increase year-over-year and a 1.6% rise from May. This was the largest year-over-year increase in 34 months. The increase from the spring low is partially attributed to recent tariff developments as well as continued tight used vehicle supply. Demand for used vehicles stayed robust, supported by steady retail sales and limited off-leased returns. Segment performance varied, with luxury vehicles marking the strongest increase of 8.8%, followed by SUV’s (65), midsize car and pickups (+2.8%) while compact cars saw a slight 0.1% decline. Used electric vehicle prices were up 6.3% from a year ago at a 15-month high of $27,168, while EV premium to standard cars was at a 4-month high of $8,099. The data suggest resilience is used vehicle values, especially as new vehicle inventory remains constrained. The second half of 2025 is expected to bring gradual normalization is supply, but prices are forecast to remain elevated due to a growing US economy.
Last night’s API data showed builds in crude oil of +7.1 million barrels, while decrease in gasoline of – 2.2 million and distillates -800,ooo and Cushing, Oklahoma rose a +100,oo barrels.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Extended Range Temp Forecast Temp Forecast Trends Cooler; Heavy Rain Impacts Western Corn Belt, Illinois Next 5 Days:
The Central US forecast into July 20th is nearly ideal. Additional rainfall of 1-3” is forecast into July 20th is forecast in eastern KS, MO, IA, MN, and WI into next Mon/Tues. Lesser but still welcomed totals are offered to Illinois in the next 24 hours. A progress pattern stays intact throughout the 8-14 day period, with the GFS and EU models in broad agreement that yet more precipitation falls across the Dakotas, IA, and MN July 20-22. Heat will remain absent from the principal Corn Belt. The EU model’s 10-day maximum temp forecast shows that highs will be capped in the upper 70’s across the north and key areas of IA. Temps elsewhere, including KS & KY, will be capped in the mid/upper 80’s. A large majority US corn will have pollinated prior to July 20th. Record-corn yield, are in the making in the US, and the Brazil Brief has Mato Grosso safrinha corn production was raised 3.6 MMT’s as their cash sags as corn production estimated raised to 54 MMT’s, vs. 50.4 in June and vs. 47.2 last year.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Coen Drags Wheat Lower; Wheat-Corn Spread Not Cheap:
Wheat futures ended slightly weaker as corn scored newer contract lows. Wheat-specific news is lacking bit Chi wheat-corn spreads have limited upside. Bearish price risk remains present in corn, and Ag Resources (ARC”s) work suggests Sep Chi wheat will struggle above $5.70 for any length of time. Chi wheat gains further on KC amid oversupplied HRW market. World cash markets are largely stagnant, but of note is that Argentine origin is still offered competitively amid large stocks there. Soil moisture replenishment is forecast in Argentina & western/southern Australia over the next two weeks. Weather there will be more closely monitored in late July/ early Aug as meaningful Southern Hemisphere supply dislocation is needed to breakout of the long-established price channel. Wheat continues to trade a range of $5.309-$5.80, spot CBOT. Spot corn downside target remains $3.95, basis Sep, but a close below this foreshadows a test of 2024’s low at $3.60. The market must find/encourage demand growth, and without the return of Chinese buying this will take time. Private US yield estimates are expected to be centered at 183-186 BPA, a level that cannot be ruled out of given weather to date and the absence of Midwest heat.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Finite Tariff Deadline-Dog Days of Summer-All Aboard. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/09/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks and NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0-1 years at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index climbed to 208.5 in June, marking a 6.3% increase year-over-year and a 1.6% rise from May. This was the largest year-over-year increase in 34 months. The increase from the spring low is partially attributed to recent tariff developments as well as continued tight used vehicle supply. Demand for used vehicles stayed robust, supported by steady retail sales and limited off-leased returns. Segment performance varied, with luxury vehicles marking the strongest increase of 8.8%, followed by SUV’s (65), midsize car and pickups (+2.8%) while compact cars saw a slight 0.1% decline. Used electric vehicle prices were up 6.3% from a year ago at a 15-month high of $27,168, while EV premium to standard cars was at a 4-month high of $8,099. The data suggest resilience is used vehicle values, especially as new vehicle inventory remains constrained. The second half of 2025 is expected to bring gradual normalization is supply, but prices are forecast to remain elevated due to a growing US economy.
Last night’s API data showed builds in crude oil of +7.1 million barrels, while decrease in gasoline of – 2.2 million and distillates -800,ooo and Cushing, Oklahoma rose a +100,oo barrels.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Extended Range Temp Forecast Temp Forecast Trends Cooler; Heavy Rain Impacts Western Corn Belt, Illinois Next 5 Days:
The Central US forecast into July 20th is nearly ideal. Additional rainfall of 1-3” is forecast into July 20th is forecast in eastern KS, MO, IA, MN, and WI into next Mon/Tues. Lesser but still welcomed totals are offered to Illinois in the next 24 hours. A progress pattern stays intact throughout the 8-14 day period, with the GFS and EU models in broad agreement that yet more precipitation falls across the Dakotas, IA, and MN July 20-22. Heat will remain absent from the principal Corn Belt. The EU model’s 10-day maximum temp forecast shows that highs will be capped in the upper 70’s across the north and key areas of IA. Temps elsewhere, including KS & KY, will be capped in the mid/upper 80’s. A large majority US corn will have pollinated prior to July 20th. Record-corn yield, are in the making in the US, and the Brazil Brief has Mato Grosso safrinha corn production was raised 3.6 MMT’s as their cash sags as corn production estimated raised to 54 MMT’s, vs. 50.4 in June and vs. 47.2 last year.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Coen Drags Wheat Lower; Wheat-Corn Spread Not Cheap:
Wheat futures ended slightly weaker as corn scored newer contract lows. Wheat-specific news is lacking bit Chi wheat-corn spreads have limited upside. Bearish price risk remains present in corn, and Ag Resources (ARC”s) work suggests Sep Chi wheat will struggle above $5.70 for any length of time. Chi wheat gains further on KC amid oversupplied HRW market. World cash markets are largely stagnant, but of note is that Argentine origin is still offered competitively amid large stocks there. Soil moisture replenishment is forecast in Argentina & western/southern Australia over the next two weeks. Weather there will be more closely monitored in late July/ early Aug as meaningful Southern Hemisphere supply dislocation is needed to breakout of the long-established price channel. Wheat continues to trade a range of $5.309-$5.80, spot CBOT. Spot corn downside target remains $3.95, basis Sep, but a close below this foreshadows a test of 2024’s low at $3.60. The market must find/encourage demand growth, and without the return of Chinese buying this will take time. Private US yield estimates are expected to be centered at 183-186 BPA, a level that cannot be ruled out of given weather to date and the absence of Midwest heat.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374