Softs Report 07/01/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and for the week as the weather remains stressful for new crop development. USDA estimated Cotton planted area at 10.12 million acres which was on the high end of trade expectations. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. It has been hot in most areas. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible. Demand ideas got a lift with the cease fire between Israel and Iran and as the White House announcement made on Friday claiming trade deals were in place with China and almost done with 10 other countries.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 69.73 ct/lb. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 225 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 95 92 97 98
Cotton Squaring 40 26 41 37
Cotton Setting Bolls 9 5 11 9
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 12 32 44 7
Cotton Last Week 6 14 33 41 6
Cotton Last Year 8 9 33 44 6

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday and closed at new lows for the move on the daily and weekly charts. Trends are turning down. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News: ICE said that 50 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 50 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 216.00, 199.00, and 188.00 September, with resistance at 236.00, 258.00, and 273.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday. Reports of colder temperature in Brazil growing areas are still around but the cold did little or no damage. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to expand and is expected to be less this year as news reports indicate that many cherries have fallen from the trees.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 267.02 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that tzotal deliveries for the month are now 75 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 294.00, 288.00, and 282.00 September, and resistance is at 334.00, 339.00 and 350.00 September. Trends in London are down. Support is at 3440, 3380, and 3320 September, with resistance at 3960, 4140, and 4390 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains but recent rains have been less in India, especially in southern areas. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1620, 1560, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1750 October. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 458.00, 454.00, and 448.00 October, with resistance at 473.00, 480.00, and 486.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower yesterday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is has seen increased rain for the crops for the coming crop.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 732 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 8300, 8090, and 7780 July, with resistance at 9600, 9930, and 10290 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5660, 5540, and 5420 July, with resistance at 6170, 6400, and 6670 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322